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DVN vs MTDR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Devon Energy (DVN) vs. Matador Resources (MTDR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- DVN is a diversified, large-cap U.S. oil and gas producer anchored in the Permian Basin, while MTDR is a smaller, oil-weighted Delaware Basin pure-play.
- Both companies have delivered notable relative performance in recent weeks, though MTDR has shown stronger short-term momentum after record oil output.
- DVN has been reshaping its portfolio through the Coterra merger and a $4.2 billion Eagle Ford divestiture, while MTDR has expanded via acquisitions and midstream growth.
- Oil-price exposure and gas-price risk create a meaningful contrast: MTDR carries elevated natural-gas pricing pressure (Waha discount), while DVN has a broader commodity mix.
- Scale, balance-sheet profile, and analyst sentiment favor each name differently, making this a case study in large-cap diversification versus mid-cap growth.
Introduction
Investors tracking the U.S. energy sector frequently weigh established, diversified producers against faster-growing independent operators. This stock comparison examines DVN (Devon Energy) and MTDR (Matador Resources), two Permian Basin-focused names with sharply different profiles. Devon is a large-cap operator reshaping itself after a transformative merger, while Matador is a smaller, oil-heavy producer integrating its own midstream assets. Both stocks are sensitive to crude prices and regional gas markets, so their relative performance offers a window into broader sentiment across exploration and production (E&P) companies. This comparison may appeal to traders evaluating momentum, as well as investors assessing market positioning, commodity exposure, and long-term growth drivers.
DVN Overview and Recent Performance
DVN, Devon Energy, is a U.S. oil and gas producer with a leading position in the Delaware Basin of the Permian and additional exposure to the Anadarko and Bakken regions. Recent weeks have been defined by portfolio transformation. The company completed an all-stock merger with Coterra Energy, creating one of the largest independent shale operators in the country, and subsequently agreed to sell its Eagle Ford assets to Crescent Energy for $4.2 billion in cash to sharpen its focus on the Permian. Management has framed the divestiture as a way to improve capital efficiency, strengthen the balance sheet, and accelerate share buybacks.
These moves have been accompanied by constructive market activity. Shares have generally trended higher in recent weeks, and analysts maintain a broadly positive view, with a consensus rating near "Strong Buy" and price targets implying additional upside from current levels. Sentiment has been supported by the prospect of greater scale, cost synergies, and a cleaner, Permian-centric asset base, though integration execution and commodity-price swings remain key watch items.
MTDR Overview and Recent Performance
MTDR, Matador Resources, is a Dallas-based independent oil and gas producer concentrated in the Delaware Basin, with an integrated midstream business through its majority-owned San Mateo operations. In its most recent quarter, the company posted record oil production and revenue, exceeding analyst estimates on both the top and bottom lines. Higher realized oil prices and strong well performance drove the results, and management raised its full-year production guidance while keeping capital spending largely intact.
Recent market activity has been favorable, with the stock outperforming in the weeks following earnings and receiving a notable analyst upgrade to an Overweight rating. Momentum has been supported by record volumes, improving cash flow, and debt reduction. However, Matador's exposure to weak Waha-region natural-gas prices has weighed on gas realizations, a factor the company is addressing through pipeline access to more favorable Henry Hub pricing. This gas-price pressure is a central consideration in evaluating its relative positioning.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ most sharply in scale and business model. DVN is a large-cap diversified producer with a market capitalization roughly eight times that of MTDR, and its post-merger portfolio spans multiple basins. MTDR is a concentrated Delaware Basin operator whose ownership of midstream infrastructure adds a differentiated, fee-based component to its earnings.
Growth drivers also diverge. Devon's near-term story centers on merger synergies, portfolio rationalization, and capital returns, while Matador's centers on organic production growth, inventory expansion through acquisitions, and midstream integration. On momentum, MTDR has recently outpaced DVN, aided by record output and a strong oil-price realization, though its negative realized gas prices highlight meaningful basin-level risk. By contrast, Devon's broader commodity mix and larger balance sheet provide a measure of diversification but expose it to integration risk and a less oil-weighted production profile. Both carry sensitivity to crude-price volatility, making relative performance closely tied to the trajectory of the broader energy complex.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward MTDR in the current environment. Its stronger recent momentum, record production, improving cash flow, and analyst upgrades point to a more consistent near-term uptrend. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: MTDR's gas-price exposure introduces volatility that could reverse momentum quickly, while DVN's larger scale, diversified asset base, and transformation catalysts may offer a steadier long-term profile. The AI's preference reflects a relative edge in trend strength and momentum, not a guarantee of future outperformance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DVN is a StrongBuy and MTDR is a StrongBuy.
DVN's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for DVN turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where DVN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on DVN as a result. In 57 of 83 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
DVN moved above its 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.00% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DVN advanced for three days, in 229 of 331 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 148 of 214 cases where DVN Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 69%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DVN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
DVN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. DVN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.351) is normal, around the industry mean (4.061). P/E Ratio (11.121) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.943). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.925) is also within normal values, averaging (1.958). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.044) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.730) is also within normal values, averaging (5.980).
Momentum Indicator for MTDR turns positive, indicating new upward trend
MTDR saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 78 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 60 of the 78 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MTDR's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 20 of 27 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MTDR just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where MTDR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 39 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
MTDR moved above its 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MTDR crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Following a +5.81% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTDR advanced for three days, in 253 of 347 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 182 of 274 cases where MTDR Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 66%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTDR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
MTDR broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 23, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MTDR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 53 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.249) is normal, around the industry mean (4.061). P/E Ratio (10.264) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.943). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.604) is also within normal values, averaging (1.958). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.044) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.868) is also within normal values, averaging (5.980).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
DVN | MTDR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 83 | 29 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | 53 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 65 | 57 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 65 | 62 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 13 | 38 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 8 | 7 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTDR's Valuation (53) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as DVN (83). This means that MTDR’s stock grew similarly to DVN’s over the last 12 months.
MTDR's Profit vs Risk Rating (57) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as DVN (65). This means that MTDR’s stock grew similarly to DVN’s over the last 12 months.
MTDR's SMR Rating (62) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as DVN (65). This means that MTDR’s stock grew similarly to DVN’s over the last 12 months.
DVN's Price Growth Rating (13) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as MTDR (38). This means that DVN’s stock grew similarly to MTDR’s over the last 12 months.
MTDR's P/E Growth Rating (7) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as DVN (8). This means that MTDR’s stock grew similarly to DVN’s over the last 12 months.
| DVN | MTDR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 74% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 73% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 67% | 15 days ago 73% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 76% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 66% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DVN’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while MTDR’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- DVN’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MTDR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DVN’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MTDR’s TA Score has 7 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DVN’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- MTDR’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
DVN (@Oil & Gas Production) experienced а +4.05% price change this week, while MTDR (@Oil & Gas Production) price change was +5.35% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil & Gas Production industry was +2.33%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +9.20%, and the average quarterly price growth was -1.57%.
Reported Earning Dates
DVN is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
MTDR is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil & Gas Production (+2.33% weekly)The oil and gas production segment includes companies that specialize in exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. These companies are focused on upstream operations. Companies typically identify deposits, drill wells, and extract raw materials from underground. The industry also includes related services like rig operations, feasibility studies, machinery rentals etc. Several operators in this industry work with various types of contractors such as engineering procurement and construction contractors, as well as with joint-venture partners and oil field service companies. Oil and gas often involves large fixed costs of production; so, declining crude oil prices, for example, is a potential negative for this industry. Conoco Phillips, EOG Resources, Inc. and Pioneer Natural Resources Company are some examples of companies operating in this space.
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