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MTDR vs OVV
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Matador Resources Company (MTDR) vs. Ovintiv Inc. (OVV) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MTDR (MTDR) boasts strong production growth in the Delaware Basin, with Q1 2026 output up 5% year-over-year to 207,594 BOE/d (barrels of oil equivalent per day), though recent stock price has pulled back amid oil volatility.
- OVV (OVV) shows superior YTD performance at around 48%, outpacing MTDR's 32%, driven by multi-basin exposure including Permian and Montney.
- Both stocks benefit from elevated oil prices in recent market activity, but OVV's larger scale (market cap ~$16.4B vs. MTDR's $6.9B) provides diversification across U.S. and Canadian operations.
- MTDR reported a Q1 net loss due to unrealized hedging losses and weak gas prices, yet beat adjusted EPS estimates; OVV awaits Q1 results with expectations of earnings growth.
- Recent weeks saw both face downward pressure from softening oil prices, with MTDR down ~8% monthly and OVV showing relative resilience in broader energy momentum.
- Tickeron's AI robots highlight energy sector opportunities, with bots achieving up to 94% annualized returns in oil-related strategies.
Introduction
Matador Resources Company (MTDR) and Ovintiv Inc. (OVV) are key players in the oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) sector, focusing on high-quality shale assets amid volatile commodity markets. This comparison analyzes their recent performance, operational strengths, and market positioning in the current environment of fluctuating oil prices and geopolitical influences. Traders seeking momentum in energy stocks and long-term investors eyeing basin-specific growth will find value in understanding their relative strengths, production trends, and sentiment drivers for informed stock comparison decisions.
MTDR Overview and Recent Performance
Matador Resources Company (MTDR), an independent E&P firm, concentrates on the oil-rich Wolfcamp and Bone Spring plays in the Delaware Basin (Southeast New Mexico and West Texas), with additional exposure in the Haynesville shale. It also operates midstream assets for gathering, processing, and disposal. In recent quarters, MTDR achieved record production, with Q1 2026 averaging 207,594 BOE/d—a 5% increase year-over-year—despite challenges like negative Waha gas pricing and weather shut-ins. Proved reserves grew 9% to 667 million BOE at year-end 2025. Stock performance reflects YTD gains of about 32%, though recent market activity saw a pullback of roughly 8% monthly amid oil price softening, influenced by hedging impacts and broader sector volatility. Leadership promotions and a reaffirmed $0.375 quarterly dividend signal operational confidence.
OVV Overview and Recent Performance
Ovintiv Inc. (OVV) is a North American E&P company with a multi-basin portfolio, including the Permian (West Texas), Anadarko (Oklahoma), and Montney (Canada) plays, emphasizing oil, NGLs (natural gas liquids), and natural gas. Recent strategic moves, such as divesting Anadarko assets, aim to streamline operations. The stock has delivered robust YTD returns of approximately 48% and 68% over the past year, outperforming peers amid strong energy momentum. In recent market activity, shares traded near $58, showing resilience despite sector dips, supported by diversified production and marketing capabilities. Q1 earnings are anticipated to reflect year-over-year growth, with analysts noting favorable cost structures and higher output guidance. OVV's larger market cap (~$16.4B) underscores its scale advantages.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both MTDR and OVV thrive in oil-heavy shale plays, but MTDR's focused Delaware Basin strategy offers concentrated growth—evidenced by 5% production increases—while OVV's multi-basin diversification (Permian, Montney, Anadarko) mitigates regional risks like Waha pricing. MTDR's midstream integration supports cost efficiencies, contrasting OVV's marketing emphasis. Recent momentum favors OVV with 48% YTD gains versus MTDR's 32%, though MTDR shows higher relative stability in recent weeks despite Q1 hedging losses. Risk factors include commodity volatility for both, but OVV's larger reserves and scale (~$16B market cap vs. $7B) provide better downside protection. Market sentiment leans positive on OVV's broader exposure amid global demand shifts.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors OVV due to its superior trend consistency, stronger YTD relative performance (48% vs. 32%), and diversified catalysts across North American basins. While MTDR exhibits solid production momentum and reserve growth, OVV's larger positioning and resilience in recent volatility suggest higher probability of outperformance in the prevailing oil market environment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MTDR is a Hold and OVV is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MTDR’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileOVV’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- MTDR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- OVV’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MTDR’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while OVV’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MTDR’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- OVV’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 7 bearish.
Price Growth
MTDR (@Oil & Gas Production) experienced а -1.36% price change this week, while OVV (@Oil & Gas Production) price change was -0.40% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil & Gas Production industry was -1.56%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.99%, and the average quarterly price growth was +17.72%.
Reported Earning Dates
MTDR is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
OVV is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil & Gas Production (-1.56% weekly)The oil and gas production segment includes companies that specialize in exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. These companies are focused on upstream operations. Companies typically identify deposits, drill wells, and extract raw materials from underground. The industry also includes related services like rig operations, feasibility studies, machinery rentals etc. Several operators in this industry work with various types of contractors such as engineering procurement and construction contractors, as well as with joint-venture partners and oil field service companies. Oil and gas often involves large fixed costs of production; so, declining crude oil prices, for example, is a potential negative for this industry. Conoco Phillips, EOG Resources, Inc. and Pioneer Natural Resources Company are some examples of companies operating in this space.
| MTDR | OVV | MTDR / OVV | |
| Capitalization | 6.87B | 16.3B | 42% |
| EBITDA | 2.09B | 2.71B | 77% |
| Gain YTD | 32.210 | 48.579 | 66% |
| P/E Ratio | 14.26 | 19.05 | 75% |
| Revenue | 3.59B | 9.06B | 40% |
| Total Cash | 30.5M | 26M | 117% |
| Total Debt | 3.57B | 7.81B | 46% |
MTDR | OVV | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 79 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 38 Fair valued | 39 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 52 | 38 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 76 | 80 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 51 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 8 | 33 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTDR's Valuation (38) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as OVV (39) in the null industry. This means that MTDR’s stock grew similarly to OVV’s over the last 12 months.
OVV's Profit vs Risk Rating (38) in the null industry is in the same range as MTDR (52) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that OVV’s stock grew similarly to MTDR’s over the last 12 months.
MTDR's SMR Rating (76) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as OVV (80) in the null industry. This means that MTDR’s stock grew similarly to OVV’s over the last 12 months.
OVV's Price Growth Rating (43) in the null industry is in the same range as MTDR (51) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that OVV’s stock grew similarly to MTDR’s over the last 12 months.
MTDR's P/E Growth Rating (8) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as OVV (33) in the null industry. This means that MTDR’s stock grew similarly to OVV’s over the last 12 months.
| MTDR | OVV | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 4 days ago 81% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 4 days ago 73% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 4 days ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 4 days ago 75% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 4 days ago 73% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 4 days ago 70% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 21 days ago 73% | 5 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 13 days ago 71% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 4 days ago 77% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 4 days ago 67% |
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OVV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, OVV has been closely correlated with PR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if OVV jumps, then PR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To OVV | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OVV | 100% | +2.13% | ||
| PR - OVV | 88% Closely correlated | +2.19% | ||
| CHRD - OVV | 86% Closely correlated | +2.58% | ||
| MGY - OVV | 85% Closely correlated | +1.89% | ||
| MTDR - OVV | 85% Closely correlated | +3.25% | ||
| DVN - OVV | 85% Closely correlated | +1.81% | ||
More | ||||