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EC vs SU
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) vs. Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Suncor Energy (SU) has delivered superior year-to-date (YTD) performance at approximately 45% compared to Ecopetrol's (EC) 34% gain, driven by record production and refining throughput.
- EC offers a higher dividend yield of 5.14% versus SU's 2.75%, appealing to income-focused investors amid volatile oil markets.
- Both stocks have shown strong one-year returns, with SU at 90% and EC at 63%, outperforming broader benchmarks in recent market activity.
- SU exhibits a lower debt-to-equity ratio (32%) than EC (100%), indicating relatively stronger balance sheet stability.
- Recent credit downgrade for EC by Moody's contrasts with SU's positive Q1 results, influencing short-term sentiment.
- Integrated operations position both for resilience, but SU's oil sands focus provides consistent output amid global energy demand.
Introduction
Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) and Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) are prominent integrated energy companies in the oil and gas sector, offering exposure to exploration, production, refining, and marketing. This stock comparison analyzes their recent performance, financial metrics, and market positioning amid fluctuating crude prices and geopolitical tensions. Traders seeking momentum and volatility plays, alongside long-term investors focused on dividends and growth in energy demand, will find value in evaluating these peers' relative strengths in the current environment.
EC Overview and Recent Performance
Ecopetrol S.A. (EC), Colombia's largest integrated energy firm, operates across exploration and production, transport and logistics, refining, petrochemicals, and infrastructure concessions. Headquartered in Bogotá, it maintains key refineries at Barrancabermeja and Cartagena, with international presence in the U.S., Brazil, and beyond.
In recent market activity, EC shares have traded around $12.64, within a 52-week range of $8.18–$15.62. YTD gains stand at 34%, with a one-year return of 63%, bolstered by stable production despite oil price swings. Sentiment has been tempered by a Moody's downgrade to Ba2 (with negative outlook) due to fiscal pressures and policy risks in Colombia. Strategic moves, including partnerships like the $250 million deal with Parex Resources for Magdalena Basin assets and a potential stake in Brazil's Brava Energia, aim to diversify output. A trailing P/E of 9.3 and ROE of 11.8% reflect value, though quarterly revenue dipped 17% year-over-year amid higher royalties and refining margins.
SU Overview and Recent Performance
Suncor Energy Inc. (SU), based in Calgary, Canada, is a fully integrated energy company spanning oil sands mining and in-situ production, offshore exploration, refining, and marketing through its Petro-Canada network. It focuses on bitumen extraction from the Athabasca region, with operations in the U.S. and international assets.
Recent weeks have seen SU shares near $64, in a 52-week span of $34.67–$70.29. YTD performance reaches 45%, with a one-year surge of 90%, fueled by record Q1 2026 production and $2.1 billion in earnings. Strong refining throughput and upstream efficiency have driven 18% quarterly revenue growth and 24% EPS improvement. The stock's lower beta of 0.59 signals reduced volatility, supported by a debt-to-equity ratio of 32% and ROE of 14%. Dividend declarations and buyback increases underscore shareholder focus, with positive analyst sentiment amid sustained oil sands output.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both EC and SU operate integrated models, blending upstream production with downstream refining to hedge commodity risks, but differ in geographic focus: EC's Latin American emphasis versus SU's Canadian oil sands dominance.
Growth drivers highlight SU's edge in production ramp-ups and refining margins, contrasting EC's asset partnerships amid regulatory hurdles. Recent momentum favors SU with higher YTD gains, though EC provides superior dividend yield.
Risk factors include EC's elevated debt (100% debt/equity) and political exposure in Colombia, versus SU's stable operations but sensitivity to Western Canadian Select pricing discounts. Sector exposure aligns in oil/gas integrated, yet SU's lower beta (0.59 vs. EC's -0.04) suggests steadier market positioning. Overall sentiment tilts toward SU on operational reliability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) over Ecopetrol S.A. (EC), based on stronger trend consistency from record outputs, superior YTD momentum (45% vs. 34%), healthier balance sheet (lower leverage), and positive catalysts like buybacks. While EC offers higher yield and value pricing, its credit downgrade and revenue contraction introduce elevated short-term risks. Probabilistic edge leans to SU for relative stability in energy upcycles.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is EC is a Hold and SU is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
EC’s FA Score shows that 4 FA rating(s) are green whileSU’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- EC’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
- SU’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
EC’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SU’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- EC’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- SU’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
EC (@Integrated Oil) experienced а -1.77% price change this week, while SU (@Integrated Oil) price change was -2.85% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was +3.77%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.69%, and the average quarterly price growth was +21.84%.
Reported Earning Dates
EC is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
SU is expected to report earnings on Aug 11, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (+3.77% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
| EC | SU | EC / SU | |
| Capitalization | 30.6B | 64.7B | 47% |
| EBITDA | 28.04T | 16.2B | 173,068% |
| Gain YTD | 70.816 | 27.367 | 259% |
| P/E Ratio | 11.57 | 15.14 | 76% |
| Revenue | 116.95T | 54.5B | 214,594% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 3.27B | - |
| Total Debt | N/A | 14.8B | - |
EC | SU | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 15 | 59 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 31 Undervalued | 30 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 17 | 22 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 22 | 61 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 56 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 12 | 25 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SU's Valuation (30) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as EC (31). This means that SU’s stock grew similarly to EC’s over the last 12 months.
EC's Profit vs Risk Rating (17) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as SU (22). This means that EC’s stock grew similarly to SU’s over the last 12 months.
EC's SMR Rating (22) in the Integrated Oil industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SU (61). This means that EC’s stock grew somewhat faster than SU’s over the last 12 months.
EC's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as SU (56). This means that EC’s stock grew similarly to SU’s over the last 12 months.
EC's P/E Growth Rating (12) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as SU (25). This means that EC’s stock grew similarly to SU’s over the last 12 months.
| EC | SU | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 52% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 55% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 51% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 7 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 44% |
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EC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, EC has been loosely correlated with CRGY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if EC jumps, then CRGY could also see price increases.
SU and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SU has been closely correlated with CVE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SU jumps, then CVE could also see price increases.