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FDX vs UPS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? FedEx Corporation (FDX) vs. United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FDX has delivered significantly stronger year-to-date returns compared to UPS, with gains exceeding 69% versus approximately 19% for UPS.
- Both companies operate in the parcel delivery and logistics sector, facing similar exposure to e-commerce volumes, fuel costs, and global trade dynamics.
- Recent market activity shows FDX maintaining better price momentum and relative outperformance amid broader sector movements.
- UPS offers a higher dividend yield, appealing to income-focused investors, while FDX demonstrates stronger growth trajectory in recent periods.
- Risk factors for both include economic slowdowns affecting shipping demand and competitive pressures in last-mile delivery.
- Market sentiment appears more constructive toward FDX based on observable price trends and relative positioning in the latest trading sessions.
Introduction
FedEx Corporation (FDX) and United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) represent two leading players in the global logistics and parcel delivery industry. Investors and traders often compare these stocks to assess relative performance within the transportation sector, particularly those focused on e-commerce trends, supply chain efficiency, and dividend income. This analysis examines their business models, recent price behavior, and market positioning to provide a balanced view relevant to portfolio allocation decisions in the current environment.
FDX Overview and Recent Performance
FedEx Corporation provides express shipping, ground delivery, and freight services worldwide. In recent weeks, FDX shares have traded near the $315 level, reflecting continued upward momentum with year-to-date gains surpassing 69%. Recent market activity has been supported by operational improvements and volume trends in parcel services. Sentiment has benefited from the company's ability to navigate cost pressures and maintain pricing discipline amid fluctuating demand.
UPS Overview and Recent Performance
United Parcel Service, Inc. offers package delivery, supply chain management, and freight forwarding services globally. UPS shares have recently hovered around $115, with year-to-date returns near 19%. Performance in recent market activity reflects steady operations but comparatively muted gains versus peers. Factors influencing sentiment include stable but flat earnings expectations and a focus on margin recovery in the latter part of the year.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
FDX and UPS share core exposure to parcel and logistics demand but differ in scale and focus. FDX emphasizes express and international services, contributing to stronger recent momentum and higher total returns. UPS maintains a larger domestic ground network and higher dividend payout, offering greater income stability. Growth drivers for FDX include volume recovery and efficiency gains, while UPS navigates flat earnings guidance. Risk factors encompass fuel price volatility and economic sensitivity for both, though FDX has shown more consistent trend alignment in recent periods. Sector sentiment favors the name with superior relative performance.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including stronger trend consistency, superior recent returns, and favorable relative positioning, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a higher probability of outperformance to FDX over UPS in the near term. This assessment reflects data-driven patterns rather than guarantees, as market conditions can shift.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FDX is a Buy and UPS is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FDX’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileUPS’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- FDX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- UPS’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FDX’s TA Score shows that 2 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UPS’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FDX’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 7 bearish.
- UPS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
FDX (@Other Transportation) experienced а -2.40% price change this week, while UPS (@Other Transportation) price change was -9.21% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Other Transportation industry was -7.10%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.34%, and the average quarterly price growth was -14.62%.
Reported Earning Dates
FDX is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
UPS is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Other Transportation (-7.10% weekly)Other Transportation includes transportation services like providing airport ground transportation, airport management and equipment, shipping services, as well as businesses that operate bridges, expressways and other public services such as taxis and subways. Grupo Aero-pac, Corporacion America Airports S.A. and Matson, Inc. are some of the major companies operating in this space.
| FDX | UPS | FDX / UPS | |
| Capitalization | 72.7B | 88.6B | 82% |
| EBITDA | 11.1B | 11.6B | 96% |
| Gain YTD | 33.319 | 8.332 | 400% |
| P/E Ratio | 16.57 | 19.37 | 86% |
| Revenue | 94.7B | 88.3B | 107% |
| Total Cash | 13.3B | 5.8B | 229% |
| Total Debt | 42.9B | 28.7B | 149% |
FDX | UPS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 62 | 74 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 23 Undervalued | 6 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 53 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 58 | 31 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 51 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 27 | 18 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 55 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UPS's Valuation (6) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as FDX (23). This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to FDX’s over the last 12 months.
FDX's Profit vs Risk Rating (53) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for UPS (100). This means that FDX’s stock grew somewhat faster than UPS’s over the last 12 months.
UPS's SMR Rating (31) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as FDX (58). This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to FDX’s over the last 12 months.
FDX's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as UPS (51). This means that FDX’s stock grew similarly to UPS’s over the last 12 months.
UPS's P/E Growth Rating (18) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as FDX (27). This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to FDX’s over the last 12 months.
| FDX | UPS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 4 days ago 50% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 57% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 51% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 59% | 4 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 57% | 4 days ago 51% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 53% | 4 days ago 49% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 69% | 18 days ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 59% | 6 days ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 51% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 51% | 4 days ago 50% |
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FDX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FDX has been closely correlated with UPS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 66% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FDX jumps, then UPS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FDX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDX | 100% | -0.37% | ||
| UPS - FDX | 66% Closely correlated | -1.00% | ||
| XPO - FDX | 63% Loosely correlated | +0.86% | ||
| GXO - FDX | 62% Loosely correlated | -0.56% | ||
| RLGT - FDX | 43% Loosely correlated | -0.60% | ||
| FWRD - FDX | 36% Loosely correlated | -0.99% | ||
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UPS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UPS has been closely correlated with FDX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 68% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UPS jumps, then FDX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UPS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS | 100% | -1.00% | ||
| FDX - UPS | 68% Closely correlated | -0.37% | ||
| XPO - UPS | 64% Loosely correlated | +0.86% | ||
| GXO - UPS | 56% Loosely correlated | -0.56% | ||
| RLGT - UPS | 36% Loosely correlated | -0.60% | ||
| FWRD - UPS | 33% Loosely correlated | -0.99% | ||
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