Advertisement
FDX vs UPS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? FedEx Corporation (FDX) vs. United Parcel Service (UPS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FedEx (FDX) has significantly outperformed UPS (UPS) year-to-date, with gains around 35% compared to UPS's approximately 9%.
- FDX recently surpassed UPS in market capitalization, reaching over $92 billion versus UPS's near $91 billion, marking a shift after years of UPS dominance.
- FDX reported strong Q3 fiscal 2026 results, beating earnings estimates with adjusted EPS of $5.25 and raising full-year guidance, boosting recent momentum.
- UPS offers a higher dividend yield of about 6%, appealing to income-focused investors, while FDX trades at a higher P/E ratio (price-to-earnings) of 20.7 versus UPS's 16.3.
- Both face sector risks like fuel costs and economic slowdowns, but FDX's cost-cutting and planned Freight spin-off provide near-term catalysts.
Introduction
FedEx Corporation (FDX) and United Parcel Service (UPS) dominate the global package delivery industry, handling vast e-commerce and logistics volumes. This comparison analyzes their recent market performance, financial metrics, and positioning amid shifting trade dynamics and cost pressures. Traders seeking momentum plays and investors eyeing dividends or stability will find value in understanding their relative strengths, as both navigate industrial sector volatility in the current environment.
FDX Overview and Recent Performance
FedEx Corporation operates a broad portfolio including express air shipping, ground delivery, and freight services. In recent market activity, FDX shares have shown robust upward momentum, with year-to-date gains exceeding 34% and a market cap topping $92 billion. This follows strong Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings in March, where revenue hit $24 billion and adjusted EPS reached $5.25, surpassing expectations and prompting raised full-year guidance to $19.30-$20.10 per share. Sentiment has improved on cost management, a planned FedEx Freight spin-off by June, and partnerships like the Viettel Post tie-up in Vietnam, though fuel volatility tempers gains.
UPS Overview and Recent Performance
United Parcel Service focuses on ground, air, and international logistics with a vast network. UPS stock has risen about 9% year-to-date, trading around $107 with a $91 billion market cap. Recent weeks reflect steady recovery, supported by 2026 guidance for $6.5 billion in free cash flow (FCF) and revenue near $90 billion, alongside a attractive 6% dividend yield. Q1 earnings due April 28 add anticipation, but shares lag peers amid margin pressures and competition. Initiatives like RFID technology and surge fees aim to enhance efficiency and revenue.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots page curates 25 top-performing bots from over 350 AI trading agents that trade thousands of tickers across stocks, ETFs, and crypto. These bots showcase diverse strategies, with performance stats like win rates often exceeding 60%, average returns from 10-50% annually, and trade counts in the hundreds, tailored to short-term (5-60 minutes) or longer frames under varying volatility. Selected for current market conditions, they employ technical, fundamental analysis, and risk management via Signal, Virtual, or Brokerage Agents. Traders can copy these in real-time with no minimums for some, optimizing portfolios dynamically. Explore Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots to identify bots aligning with your style.
Head-to-Head Comparison
Both companies share e-commerce-driven models but differ in emphasis: FDX leans on premium express services, while UPS excels in cost-efficient ground networks. Growth drivers include FDX's $1 billion cost savings target and spin-off for focus, versus UPS's international expansion and FCF growth. Recent momentum favors FDX with 35% YTD returns versus 9%, reflecting earnings beats. Risk factors like rising fuel and labor costs hit both, but UPS's higher leverage offers income trade-offs against FDX's growth tilt. Sector exposure mirrors industrials, with sentiment lifted by trade recovery but pressured by tariffs. FDX's higher P/E signals premium valuation; UPS appears cheaper with superior yield.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward FDX due to superior trend consistency, YTD outperformance, and catalysts like earnings momentum and restructuring. UPS holds appeal for stability via dividends, but FDX's relative positioning suggests higher probability of near-term upside in volatile markets.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FDX is a Hold and UPS is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FDX’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileUPS’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- FDX’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- UPS’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FDX’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UPS’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FDX’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- UPS’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
FDX (@Other Transportation) experienced а -2.58% price change this week, while UPS (@Other Transportation) price change was -1.46% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Other Transportation industry was +1.72%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.66%, and the average quarterly price growth was +3.69%.
Reported Earning Dates
FDX is expected to report earnings on Jun 23, 2026.
UPS is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Other Transportation (+1.72% weekly)Other Transportation includes transportation services like providing airport ground transportation, airport management and equipment, shipping services, as well as businesses that operate bridges, expressways and other public services such as taxis and subways. Grupo Aero-pac, Corporacion America Airports S.A. and Matson, Inc. are some of the major companies operating in this space.
| FDX | UPS | FDX / UPS | |
| Capitalization | 78.4B | 91.2B | 86% |
| EBITDA | 11B | 11.6B | 95% |
| Gain YTD | 42.591 | 11.471 | 371% |
| P/E Ratio | 17.55 | 17.35 | 101% |
| Revenue | 91.9B | 88.3B | 104% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 5.8B | - |
| Total Debt | 42B | 28.7B | 146% |
FDX | UPS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 36 | 79 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 24 Undervalued | 8 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 52 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 55 | 30 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 11 | 29 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 32 | 35 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UPS's Valuation (8) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as FDX (24). This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to FDX’s over the last 12 months.
FDX's Profit vs Risk Rating (52) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for UPS (100). This means that FDX’s stock grew somewhat faster than UPS’s over the last 12 months.
UPS's SMR Rating (30) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as FDX (55). This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to FDX’s over the last 12 months.
FDX's Price Growth Rating (11) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as UPS (29). This means that FDX’s stock grew similarly to UPS’s over the last 12 months.
FDX's P/E Growth Rating (32) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as UPS (35). This means that FDX’s stock grew similarly to UPS’s over the last 12 months.
| FDX | UPS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 56% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 52% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 51% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 8 days ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 60% | 6 days ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | N/A |
Advertisement
FDX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FDX has been closely correlated with UPS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 69% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FDX jumps, then UPS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FDX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDX | 100% | +1.17% | ||
| UPS - FDX | 69% Closely correlated | +2.27% | ||
| XPO - FDX | 63% Loosely correlated | +0.85% | ||
| GXO - FDX | 62% Loosely correlated | +2.24% | ||
| JBHT - FDX | 53% Loosely correlated | +0.83% | ||
| HUBG - FDX | 47% Loosely correlated | -0.83% | ||
More | ||||
UPS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UPS has been closely correlated with FDX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UPS jumps, then FDX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UPS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS | 100% | +2.27% | ||
| FDX - UPS | 70% Closely correlated | +1.17% | ||
| XPO - UPS | 64% Loosely correlated | +0.85% | ||
| GXO - UPS | 55% Loosely correlated | +2.24% | ||
| JBHT - UPS | 46% Loosely correlated | +0.83% | ||
| LSTR - UPS | 44% Loosely correlated | +0.92% | ||
More | ||||