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FDX vs UPS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? FedEx (FDX) vs. United Parcel Service (UPS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both FDX and UPS are logistics leaders, but they are pursuing sharply different strategies: FedEx is refocusing on premium express parcels after spinning off its Freight unit, while UPS is reshaping its U.S. network after reducing lower-margin Amazon volume.
- FDX has shown stronger recent earnings momentum, with a multi-quarter streak of earnings beats and its highest adjusted operating margin in four years.
- UPS trades at a lower valuation and offers a notably higher dividend yield, but is working through a heavier restructuring cycle.
- Relative performance diverged over the past year, with FedEx shares posting meaningful gains while UPS remains well below its 2022 record high.
- Both companies face shared headwinds, including trade-policy uncertainty, rising fuel costs, and shifting e-commerce dynamics.
- For additional context on these names, explore FDX Major News and FDX Today's Price Move, as well as UPS Major News and UPS Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated systems are positioning across the market, review the Trending AI Robots page.
Introduction
FedEx Corporation (FDX) and United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) are two of the world's largest package-delivery and logistics companies, and they are frequently compared as proxies for global trade and e-commerce activity. This stock comparison is relevant to investors and traders seeking to understand how two industry rivals are navigating a rapidly changing operating environment, including tariff shifts, fuel-cost pressures, and evolving customer demand. By examining business models, recent performance, and market positioning, readers can assess the trade-offs between FedEx's faster-growing, air-centric network and UPS's higher-yielding, restructuring-focused domestic franchise.
FDX Overview and Recent Performance
FedEx is a global transportation company built around an extensive express air network, complemented by ground and international services. A defining recent development has been its June 2026 spin-off of FedEx Freight into a separate publicly traded company, leaving a leaner parcel-focused business and a shift to a calendar fiscal year. This strategic repositioning is aimed at concentrating capital on higher-margin express and priority shipments.
Recent performance has been comparatively strong. FedEx delivered several consecutive quarters of earnings that beat analyst estimates, and its core Express segment finished its most recent fiscal year with an adjusted operating margin near its highest level in four years. Pricing power has been a key driver, with package yields rising materially, particularly in international priority shipments and business-to-business (B2B) verticals such as healthcare and data centers. Transformation savings under the company's Network 2.0 program have also supported profitability. Shares have risen substantially over the trailing year, though they pulled back modestly from levels reached around the time of the spinoff as investors weighed integration costs and softer seasonal volumes.
UPS Overview and Recent Performance
United Parcel Service is the world's largest package-delivery company, anchored by an integrated U.S. ground and air network and a substantial international and supply-chain business. Its recent story centers on a deliberate "better, not bigger" transition: the company completed a planned reduction of lower-margin volume from its largest customer, Amazon, and has been reconfiguring its network around higher-quality, higher-yielding shipments.
Recent market activity has been mixed. UPS reported a rebound in its U.S. domestic segment's operating margin in its most recent quarter, supported by a sharp increase in revenue per piece, and it raised full-year guidance. However, the company is absorbing meaningful one-time restructuring and separation costs tied to its Driver Choice program and network-automation initiatives. The shares trade well below their early-2022 record and near their starting point for the year, which has pushed the dividend yield to a historically elevated level. Sentiment has improved modestly in recent weeks as investors reassess the company's cost-savings trajectory and pricing discipline, but the stock's multi-year recovery remains incomplete.
Trending AI Robots
For traders who prefer a data-driven approach, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page offers a curated view of automated trading strategies. Tickeron hosts hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, each with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance history, and set of securities. Because not every bot fits every market regime, only those most suitable for current conditions earn a place in this curated section. The page highlights bots by their recent effectiveness and alignment with prevailing trends, allowing users to compare parameters such as win rates, trade frequency, and drawdown profiles. Whether you are evaluating FDX, UPS, or the broader market, exploring the Trending AI Robots can provide a useful, quantified perspective on current momentum.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ most clearly in structure and momentum. FedEx is an air-centric, asset-heavy express operator now streamlined after its Freight separation, with an emphasis on international priority and premium B2B growth. UPS, by contrast, retains a larger domestic ground network and is deliberately shrinking low-margin volume to protect profitability and yield. In growth terms, FedEx has posted faster revenue and earnings expansion recently, while UPS has prioritized margin repair over volume growth.
Risk profiles also diverge. FedEx faces execution risk tied to its post-spin integration, stranded costs, and a transition year of heavy one-time expenses. UPS faces restructuring risk from its network reconfiguration and elevated costs from its Driver Choice program, alongside a dividend payout that consumes much of its projected free cash flow. Valuation and income are notable contrasts: UPS trades at a lower earnings multiple and offers a much higher dividend yield, while FedEx's stronger momentum commands a richer relative valuation. Both remain sensitive to trade-policy shifts and fuel prices, making this a comparison between a growth-oriented restructure and a value-oriented turnaround.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward FDX in the current environment. FedEx has demonstrated more persistent earnings momentum, stronger pricing power, and a clearer upward trajectory in both fundamentals and share price. UPS's elevated dividend yield and lower valuation may appeal to income-oriented investors, but its heavier restructuring costs and incomplete recovery introduce greater near-term uncertainty. The AI's preference would reflect probabilistic assessments of trend strength and catalyst alignment rather than any definitive forecast, and positioning can shift as new earnings and macroeconomic data emerge.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FDX is a Buy and UPS is a Buy.
FDX in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026
The 10-day moving average for FDX crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on FDX as a result. In 57 of 83 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
FDX moved above its 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.19% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FDX advanced for three days, in 226 of 324 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 167 of 263 cases where FDX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 63%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for FDX moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 39 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 51%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 34 of 64 cases where FDX's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
The 50-day moving average for FDX moved below the 200-day moving average on November 03, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FDX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
FDX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. FDX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 60 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.304) is normal, around the industry mean (2.483). P/E Ratio (16.469) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.339). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.224) is also within normal values, averaging (5.110). Dividend Yield (0.016) settles around the average of (0.020) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.761) is also within normal values, averaging (2.034).
UPS in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026
The 10-day moving average for UPS crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on UPS as a result. In 67 of 99 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UPS just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where UPS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
UPS moved above its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.34% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UPS advanced for three days, in 195 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 111 of 207 cases where UPS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 54%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for UPS moved out of overbought territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 31 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 16 of the 31 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 52%.
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UPS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
UPS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. UPS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 67 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.115) is normal, around the industry mean (2.483). P/E Ratio (20.130) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.339). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.340) is also within normal values, averaging (5.110). UPS has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.061) as compared to the industry average of (0.020). P/S Ratio (0.935) is also within normal values, averaging (2.034).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UPS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
FDX | UPS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 36 | 35 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 60 Fair valued | 67 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 21 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 57 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 42 | 19 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 30 | 12 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
FDX's Valuation (60) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as UPS (67). This means that FDX’s stock grew similarly to UPS’s over the last 12 months.
FDX's Profit vs Risk Rating (21) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is significantly better than the same rating for UPS (100). This means that FDX’s stock grew significantly faster than UPS’s over the last 12 months.
UPS's SMR Rating (34) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as FDX (57). This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to FDX’s over the last 12 months.
UPS's Price Growth Rating (19) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as FDX (42). This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to FDX’s over the last 12 months.
UPS's P/E Growth Rating (12) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as FDX (30). This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to FDX’s over the last 12 months.
| FDX | UPS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 52% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 68% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 4 days ago 59% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 58% | 7 days ago 52% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 54% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FDX’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while UPS’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- FDX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- UPS’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FDX’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UPS’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FDX’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- UPS’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
FDX (@Other Transportation) experienced а -2.06% price change this week, while UPS (@Other Transportation) price change was -1.63% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Other Transportation industry was +0.37%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -8.55%, and the average quarterly price growth was -27.59%.
Reported Earning Dates
FDX is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
UPS is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Other Transportation (+0.37% weekly)Other Transportation includes transportation services like providing airport ground transportation, airport management and equipment, shipping services, as well as businesses that operate bridges, expressways and other public services such as taxis and subways. Grupo Aero-pac, Corporacion America Airports S.A. and Matson, Inc. are some of the major companies operating in this space.
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FDX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FDX has been loosely correlated with XPO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 63% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if FDX jumps, then XPO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FDX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDX | 100% | +0.99% | ||
| XPO - FDX | 63% Loosely correlated | +0.42% | ||
| UPS - FDX | 52% Loosely correlated | +1.26% | ||
| GXO - FDX | 50% Loosely correlated | -0.60% | ||
| RLGT - FDX | 33% Poorly correlated | +2.85% | ||
| FWRD - FDX | 32% Poorly correlated | -5.95% | ||
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UPS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UPS has been loosely correlated with XPO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 64% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if UPS jumps, then XPO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UPS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS | 100% | +1.26% | ||
| XPO - UPS | 64% Loosely correlated | +0.42% | ||
| GXO - UPS | 61% Loosely correlated | -0.60% | ||
| FDX - UPS | 50% Loosely correlated | +0.99% | ||
| RLGT - UPS | 39% Loosely correlated | +2.85% | ||
| FWRD - UPS | 31% Poorly correlated | -5.95% | ||
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