Advertisement
FDX vs UPS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? FedEx (FDX) vs. United Parcel Service (UPS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FedEx completed the spinoff of its Freight division in June 2026, sharpening its focus on the express and ground parcel networks.
- UPS has completed its planned reduction of lower-margin Amazon volume and is pivoting toward premium, higher-yield shipments.
- Both companies are running multi-billion-dollar cost and network-efficiency programs, but their strategic paths differ meaningfully.
- Recent relative performance has favored FedEx, which delivered stronger momentum and upward guidance revisions over the past year.
- UPS offers a larger dividend yield and a "turning the page" cost story, but its transformation is earlier-stage than FedEx's.
- Analyst sentiment is broadly positive on both, with FedEx carrying a notably stronger consensus rating heading into late 2026.
Introduction
FedEx Corporation and United Parcel Service, Inc. are the two most recognizable names in global package delivery and logistics, and their stocks are frequently paired by investors as direct competitors. This stock comparison is relevant for traders seeking relative performance opportunities and for long-term investors evaluating market positioning in the transportation and industrials sector. Both companies are navigating similar macro pressures, including shifting trade policy, fuel costs, and e-commerce dynamics, yet they have chosen different strategic responses. Understanding how FDX and UPS diverge in momentum, catalysts, and risk exposure can help clarify which name may be better suited to current market conditions.
FDX Overview and Recent Performance
FedEx operates the world's largest express air cargo network, with more than 650 aircraft and delivery to over 220 countries. In recent months, the company has executed a major structural transformation, including the June 2026 spinoff of its less-than-truckload (LTL) Freight business into a separate public company. This move lets the core business focus on its Network 2.0 initiative, which integrates express and ground operations using automation and artificial intelligence to lower costs and improve density.
Recent financial results have been strong. FedEx beat earnings and revenue expectations in its latest quarters and repeatedly raised its guidance, citing improved U.S. domestic and international package yields, cost reductions, and share gains. Over the trailing year, FDX posted a substantial advance that outpaced both the broader market and its chief rival, although shares pulled back in the immediate aftermath of the Freight spinoff. Wall Street's consensus rating on FedEx is a Strong Buy, reflecting confidence in its margin trajectory and cost-savings execution.
UPS Overview and Recent Performance
United Parcel Service is the world's largest package delivery company, with a dominant U.S. ground network and a growing international and healthcare-logistics franchise. Over the past year, UPS has been unwinding a long-running strategic challenge: reducing its dependence on lower-margin Amazon volume. Management recently confirmed that this "glide down" is now complete, with Amazon falling to a high-single-digit share of revenue from roughly 13% earlier.
UPS has been closing facilities, reducing headcount through an early-retirement program, and targeting roughly $3 billion in savings during 2026. Its most recent quarterly results beat expectations, and the company raised its full-year revenue and earnings guidance. The stock has recovered from earlier weakness but has trailed FedEx's performance over the trailing twelve months. UPS supports a notably larger dividend yield, which appeals to income-oriented investors, even as the company's transformation toward premium shipments, healthcare, and small-and-medium business volume remains in its earlier stages relative to FedEx.
Trending AI Robots
For investors who prefer a data-driven, automated approach to navigating comparisons like this one, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page offers a curated view of the platform's most promising algorithmic strategies. Tickeron hosts hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, each with its own trading style, timeframe, risk profile, and historical performance statistics. Because not every bot suits every market regime, only those best aligned with current conditions earn a place in the Trending AI Robots section. Browsing this list can help you identify strategies with strong recent track records and discover which tickers are currently favored by AI-driven systems.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ most clearly in business-model focus. FedEx is anchored in time-definite air express and global priority shipping, while UPS is centered on a high-density U.S. ground network with an expanding healthcare and international presence. This gives FedEx greater leverage to premium international and business-to-business (B2B) volumes, while UPS depends more on domestic package economics and yield management.
Growth drivers also diverge. FedEx's catalyst set includes the Network 2.0 rollout, the Freight spinoff, and potential expansion in Europe through its InPost relationship. UPS's catalysts center on completing its Amazon transition, growing healthcare and cold-chain revenue, and improving revenue-per-piece through a richer customer mix. On momentum, FedEx has shown stronger recent relative performance and more aggressive guidance increases, while UPS offers a higher dividend yield and a valuation that some analysts view as more discounted.
Risk profiles differ as well. FedEx carries a heavier debt load and faces execution risk around its network integration and post-spinoff structure. UPS contends with union-related labor cost pressure around automation and the competitive threat of Amazon's own logistics ambitions. Both remain sensitive to fuel prices and global trade policy.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, momentum, and the quality of recent catalysts, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward FDX in the current environment. FedEx has demonstrated stronger relative price performance, delivered repeated earnings beats and guidance increases, and is further along in a margin-expansion program that analysts broadly endorse. Its higher-velocity trend and clear structural catalysts give it an edge in algorithmic scoring. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: UPS retains meaningful appeal for income-focused strategies given its larger yield and a potential margin recovery story that is still unfolding. AI-driven systems would likely continue to monitor both names as their respective transformations progress.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FDX is a StrongBuy and UPS is a StrongBuy.
Momentum Indicator for FDX turns positive, indicating new upward trend
FDX saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 83 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 65 of the 83 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where FDX's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 20 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FDX just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where FDX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Following a +1.77% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FDX advanced for three days, in 229 of 329 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FDX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
FDX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for FDX entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. FDX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 59 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.230) is normal, around the industry mean (2.728). P/E Ratio (15.940) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.632). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.224) is also within normal values, averaging (5.110). Dividend Yield (0.016) settles around the average of (0.020) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.761) is also within normal values, averaging (2.034).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
UPS in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026
UPS moved above its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 24 of 36 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on UPS as a result. In 65 of 101 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UPS just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where UPS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 24 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
Following a +3.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UPS advanced for three days, in 192 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for UPS moved below the 200-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UPS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
UPS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for UPS entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 43 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. UPS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 63 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.622) is normal, around the industry mean (2.728). P/E Ratio (18.507) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.632). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.340) is also within normal values, averaging (5.110). UPS has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.066) as compared to the industry average of (0.020). P/S Ratio (0.935) is also within normal values, averaging (2.034).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UPS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
FDX | UPS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 21 | 28 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 59 Fair valued | 63 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 26 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 57 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 27 | 13 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 43 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
FDX's Valuation (59) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as UPS (63). This means that FDX’s stock grew similarly to UPS’s over the last 12 months.
FDX's Profit vs Risk Rating (26) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is significantly better than the same rating for UPS (100). This means that FDX’s stock grew significantly faster than UPS’s over the last 12 months.
UPS's SMR Rating (34) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as FDX (57). This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to FDX’s over the last 12 months.
FDX's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as UPS (50). This means that FDX’s stock grew similarly to UPS’s over the last 12 months.
UPS's P/E Growth Rating (13) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as FDX (27). This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to FDX’s over the last 12 months.
| FDX | UPS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 71% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 55% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 1 day ago 61% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 70% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 67% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FDX’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while UPS’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- FDX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- UPS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FDX’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UPS’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FDX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- UPS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
FDX (@Other Transportation) experienced а +2.39% price change this week, while UPS (@Other Transportation) price change was +3.77% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Other Transportation industry was -8.95%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.82%, and the average quarterly price growth was -32.29%.
Reported Earning Dates
FDX is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
UPS is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Other Transportation (-8.95% weekly)Other Transportation includes transportation services like providing airport ground transportation, airport management and equipment, shipping services, as well as businesses that operate bridges, expressways and other public services such as taxis and subways. Grupo Aero-pac, Corporacion America Airports S.A. and Matson, Inc. are some of the major companies operating in this space.
Advertisement
FDX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FDX has been loosely correlated with XPO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 63% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if FDX jumps, then XPO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FDX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDX | 100% | +1.91% | ||
| XPO - FDX | 63% Loosely correlated | +0.15% | ||
| UPS - FDX | 49% Loosely correlated | +1.96% | ||
| GXO - FDX | 48% Loosely correlated | +0.99% | ||
| SFWL - FDX | 32% Poorly correlated | +6.96% | ||
| FWRD - FDX | 31% Poorly correlated | -0.89% | ||
More | ||||
UPS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UPS has been loosely correlated with XPO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 64% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if UPS jumps, then XPO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UPS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS | 100% | +1.96% | ||
| XPO - UPS | 64% Loosely correlated | +0.15% | ||
| GXO - UPS | 57% Loosely correlated | +0.99% | ||
| FDX - UPS | 50% Loosely correlated | +1.91% | ||
| RLGT - UPS | 36% Loosely correlated | -0.80% | ||
| CHRW - UPS | 31% Poorly correlated | +0.96% | ||
More | ||||