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FDX vs UPS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? FedEx (FDX) vs. United Parcel Service (UPS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FDX has delivered stronger year-to-date performance, advancing approximately 35% compared with roughly 15% for UPS.
- FedEx reported fiscal fourth-quarter results in June 2026 that beat earnings estimates, supported revenue growth guidance of 11% for calendar 2026, and benefited from the recent spin-off of its Freight segment.
- United Parcel Service posted first-quarter 2026 revenue of $21.2 billion that exceeded analyst expectations, reaffirmed full-year guidance, and maintains an attractive dividend yield near 6%.
- Both companies operate in the competitive parcel delivery and logistics sector, with FDX showing greater recent momentum while UPS offers higher income potential through dividends.
- Market sentiment for FDX has been bolstered by cost discipline and strategic focus on express operations, whereas UPS sentiment reflects ongoing efforts to stabilize volumes amid broader industry pressures.
Introduction
FedEx Corporation (FDX) and United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) are leading global providers of parcel delivery and logistics services. Investors and traders frequently compare these two stocks because they share similar exposure to e-commerce volumes, fuel costs, labor expenses, and economic cycles. The comparison is particularly relevant for those seeking insights into relative performance within the industrials sector, portfolio diversification across transportation names, or evaluation of cyclical versus defensive characteristics in the current market environment.
FDX Overview and Recent Performance
FedEx Corporation provides express shipping, ground, and freight services worldwide. In recent weeks, FDX shares have traded near the upper end of their 52-week range, closing at approximately $310.84 on July 9, 2026. Year-to-date returns stand near 35%, significantly outpacing the broader market. Fiscal fourth-quarter results released in late June showed earnings that exceeded expectations, although operating margins in the core Express segment declined modestly year-over-year due to higher labor and fuel costs. The company reiterated an 11% revenue growth target for calendar 2026 and completed the spin-off of its Freight business, sharpening focus on higher-margin express operations. Analyst commentary has generally remained constructive, citing improved execution and strategic clarity.
UPS Overview and Recent Performance
United Parcel Service, Inc. offers global package delivery, supply chain, and freight services. In recent market activity, UPS shares have traded around $110.74 as of July 9, 2026, with year-to-date gains of approximately 15%. First-quarter 2026 results, reported in late April, showed consolidated revenue of $21.2 billion that slightly exceeded analyst forecasts despite modest year-over-year declines. The company reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance, including expectations for strong free cash flow generation. Shares have reflected steady but measured recovery, supported by initiatives aimed at operational efficiency and volume stabilization. The stock continues to offer a dividend yield near 6%, providing income appeal amid a mixed broader performance environment.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
FedEx and UPS share core exposure to global parcel volumes yet differ in scale, margin profiles, and strategic priorities. FDX maintains a larger emphasis on time-sensitive express services, which have supported stronger recent revenue growth and margin expansion following the Freight spin-off. UPS operates a more balanced network with significant ground and international exposure, delivering a higher dividend yield that appeals to income-focused investors. Recent momentum favors FDX, evidenced by superior year-to-date returns and positive earnings reactions, while UPS has shown resilience through reaffirmed guidance and cost-control measures. Risk factors for both include fuel price volatility and labor costs; however, FDX faces greater near-term margin pressure in its Express segment, whereas UPS contends with volume normalization challenges. Sector sentiment remains tied to economic indicators and e-commerce trends, with neither stock exhibiting clear dominance in stability or catalyst visibility.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a higher probability of favorable near-term performance to FDX. Stronger year-to-date price action, post-earnings stability, and strategic simplification through the Freight separation contribute to this assessment. UPS remains competitive due to its dividend support and guidance reaffirmation but trails in recent momentum metrics. Outcomes remain probabilistic and subject to macroeconomic developments.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FDX is a Hold and UPS is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FDX’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileUPS’s FA Score has 4 green FA rating(s).
- FDX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- UPS’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FDX’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UPS’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FDX’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- UPS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
FDX (@Other Transportation) experienced а +0.54% price change this week, while UPS (@Other Transportation) price change was +2.61% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Other Transportation industry was -1.22%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -11.13%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.14%.
Reported Earning Dates
FDX is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
UPS is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Other Transportation (-1.22% weekly)Other Transportation includes transportation services like providing airport ground transportation, airport management and equipment, shipping services, as well as businesses that operate bridges, expressways and other public services such as taxis and subways. Grupo Aero-pac, Corporacion America Airports S.A. and Matson, Inc. are some of the major companies operating in this space.
| FDX | UPS | FDX / UPS | |
| Capitalization | 74.9B | 96B | 78% |
| EBITDA | 11B | 11.6B | 95% |
| Gain YTD | 36.069 | 17.344 | 208% |
| P/E Ratio | 16.91 | 18.27 | 93% |
| Revenue | 91.9B | 88.3B | 104% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 5.8B | - |
| Total Debt | 42B | 28.7B | 146% |
FDX | UPS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 23 Undervalued | 8 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 51 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 55 | 31 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 25 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 32 | 30 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UPS's Valuation (8) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as FDX (23). This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to FDX’s over the last 12 months.
FDX's Profit vs Risk Rating (51) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for UPS (100). This means that FDX’s stock grew somewhat faster than UPS’s over the last 12 months.
UPS's SMR Rating (31) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as FDX (55). This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to FDX’s over the last 12 months.
UPS's Price Growth Rating (25) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as FDX (43). This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to FDX’s over the last 12 months.
UPS's P/E Growth Rating (30) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as FDX (32). This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to FDX’s over the last 12 months.
| FDX | UPS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 5 days ago 53% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 52% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 56% | 4 days ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 44% | 4 days ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 54% | 4 days ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 61% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 59% | 14 days ago 52% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 70% | 4 days ago 53% |
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FDX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FDX has been closely correlated with UPS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 69% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FDX jumps, then UPS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FDX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDX | 100% | -0.30% | ||
| UPS - FDX | 69% Closely correlated | +0.37% | ||
| GXO - FDX | 63% Loosely correlated | -3.20% | ||
| XPO - FDX | 63% Loosely correlated | +0.76% | ||
| RLGT - FDX | 42% Loosely correlated | -0.53% | ||
| FWRD - FDX | 35% Loosely correlated | -4.33% | ||
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