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GFL vs WM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? GFL Environmental (GFL) vs. Waste Management (WM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- GFL Environmental (GFL) and Waste Management (WM) operate in the environmental services sector, with both companies reporting solid first-quarter 2026 results driven by pricing discipline and operational efficiency.
- Recent market activity shows GFL experiencing higher volatility, including a notable share-price decline earlier in the year tied to acquisition financing and analyst commentary, while WM has demonstrated more stable price behavior.
- Both stocks face upcoming second-quarter 2026 earnings releases in late July, which could influence near-term sentiment.
- WM maintains a larger market capitalization and stronger historical total returns compared with GFL over multi-year periods.
- Sector tailwinds such as regulatory focus on sustainability and recurring revenue from collection and disposal services support both companies, though leverage and acquisition integration remain key risk factors for GFL.
- Relative performance in recent weeks has favored more established operators with consistent cash-flow generation.
Introduction
Environmental services companies provide essential waste collection, recycling, and disposal infrastructure that supports both municipal and commercial customers. GFL and WM represent two prominent publicly traded participants in this defensive yet growth-oriented sector. Investors and traders seeking exposure to stable cash-flow businesses with exposure to regulatory-driven demand for sustainable waste management may find a direct comparison useful. The analysis below examines recent price behavior, fundamental developments, and relative positioning without projecting future outcomes.
GFL Overview and Recent Performance
GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management, recycling, and soil remediation services across North America. In recent weeks, the stock has shown mixed price action following earlier volatility associated with a sizable acquisition and subsequent analyst ratings. First-quarter 2026 results highlighted revenue growth of 5.4 percent and adjusted EBITDA expansion, with margins reaching a quarterly high. The company declared a quarterly dividend payable in July 2026 and scheduled second-quarter results for release after market close on July 29. Market participants have monitored leverage metrics and integration progress amid broader sector interest in pricing power and volume trends.
WM Overview and Recent Performance
Waste Management, Inc. offers collection, transfer, recycling, and disposal services primarily in the United States and Canada. Recent market activity has reflected steady operational execution, with first-quarter 2026 results showing revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth alongside a 24 percent increase in operating cash flow. The company reaffirmed its full-year outlook and set its second-quarter earnings release for July 28, 2026. Price behavior in recent weeks has remained relatively contained compared with more volatile peers, supported by consistent volume and pricing discipline in core collection and disposal segments.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both companies generate recurring revenue from essential waste services, yet differences in scale and execution stand out. WM operates with a significantly larger market capitalization and broader geographic footprint, contributing to more predictable cash-flow generation. GFL has pursued growth through acquisitions, which can accelerate revenue but also elevate leverage and integration risk. Recent momentum has favored WM in terms of total return consistency, while GFL has displayed greater price swings tied to corporate actions and analyst commentary. Sector exposure remains similar, though WM benefits from mature pricing power and cost controls that have supported margin stability. Market sentiment reflects a preference for established operators with lower relative volatility in the current environment.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, balance-sheet stability, and relative positioning within the sector, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a higher probabilistic preference to WM. The larger operator has demonstrated steadier cash-flow trends and lower volatility in recent market activity, which aligns with the models’ emphasis on resilience. GFL continues to offer growth optionality through acquisitions, though elevated leverage introduces additional variables. Any assessment remains probabilistic and subject to new data, including upcoming quarterly results.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GFL is a Buy and WM is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GFL’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileWM’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- GFL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- WM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GFL’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WM’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GFL’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- WM’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
GFL (@Environmental Services) experienced а +6.06% price change this week, while WM (@Environmental Services) price change was +1.27% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Environmental Services industry was -0.62%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.42%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.36%.
Reported Earning Dates
WM is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Environmental Services (-0.62% weekly)Environmental Services includes companies that collect and dispose of hazardous and non-hazardous waste. Their services include removal of toxic waste from soil, removing medical waste etc. Some companies also operate incinerators, sewerage systems, waste treatment plants, and landfills. Demand for waste management is likely to rise with increasing urbanization/industrialization. Waste Management, Inc., Republic Services, Inc., Waste Connections, Inc. and Tetra Tech, Inc. are some of the major companies in this business.
| GFL | WM | GFL / WM | |
| Capitalization | 14.3B | 93.7B | 15% |
| EBITDA | 1.95B | 7.34B | 27% |
| Gain YTD | -7.381 | 7.083 | -104% |
| P/E Ratio | 110.65 | 33.77 | 328% |
| Revenue | 6.7B | 25.4B | 26% |
| Total Cash | 1.44B | 158M | 909% |
| Total Debt | 9.83B | 22.9B | 43% |
GFL | WM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 85 Overvalued | 36 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 76 | 17 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 90 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 34 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 100 | 51 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
WM's Valuation (36) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GFL (85) in the null industry. This means that WM’s stock grew somewhat faster than GFL’s over the last 12 months.
WM's Profit vs Risk Rating (17) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GFL (76) in the null industry. This means that WM’s stock grew somewhat faster than GFL’s over the last 12 months.
WM's SMR Rating (34) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GFL (90) in the null industry. This means that WM’s stock grew somewhat faster than GFL’s over the last 12 months.
WM's Price Growth Rating (34) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as GFL (58) in the null industry. This means that WM’s stock grew similarly to GFL’s over the last 12 months.
WM's P/E Growth Rating (51) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GFL (100) in the null industry. This means that WM’s stock grew somewhat faster than GFL’s over the last 12 months.
| GFL | WM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 42% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 43% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 51% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 48% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 65% | 11 days ago 49% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 43% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 42% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 46% |
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GFL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GFL has been loosely correlated with WCN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 53% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if GFL jumps, then WCN could also see price increases.
WM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WM has been closely correlated with RSG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if WM jumps, then RSG could also see price increases.