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GFL vs WM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? GFL Environmental (GFL) vs. WM (WM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- GFL is a growth-oriented, acquisition-heavy environmental services firm, while WM is the larger, more mature industry leader with steadier cash generation.
- GFL recently raised its full-year guidance but swung to a quarterly net loss, largely reflecting foreign-exchange effects and integration costs.
- WM continues to post consistent profitability, supported by disciplined pricing, a growing dividend, and active share repurchases.
- Relative performance diverges: WM has delivered steadier longer-term returns, while GFL carries higher leverage and more event-driven volatility.
- For deeper context, explore GFL Major News and GFL Today's Price Move, as well as WM Major News and WM Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated strategies are positioning across this sector, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Investors comparing GFL (GFL Environmental Inc.) and WM (Waste Management, Inc.) are weighing two very different profiles within the same essential-services sector. Both generate recurring revenue from non-hazardous solid waste collection, recycling, and disposal, yet they diverge sharply on scale, growth strategy, and financial structure. This stock comparison is most relevant to investors deciding between a faster-growing, acquisition-driven challenger and a dominant, cash-rich industry incumbent. The analysis that follows reviews each company's recent market positioning, momentum, and risk factors to help clarify how their relative performance has evolved in the current market environment.
GFL Overview and Recent Performance
GFL is the fourth-largest diversified environmental services company in North America, providing solid waste management across Canada and 18 U.S. states with a workforce of roughly 15,500 employees. Recent market activity has centered on two themes: aggressive M&A (mergers and acquisitions) and a strategic review announced after the company received unsolicited take-private interest. Management has pursued sizable deals, including a proposed acquisition of Secure Waste Infrastructure and the closing of Frontier Waste Solutions alongside several tuck-in transactions.
Financially, GFL reported double-digit revenue growth in its most recent quarter and raised its full-year guidance, citing strong pricing, acquisition contributions, and operating efficiencies. However, the same period produced a net loss, driven in part by foreign-exchange movements and elevated diesel costs. The stock has been volatile, trading within a wide 52-week range and recovering meaningfully after the strategic review announcement. Sentiment reflects both optimism about a potential take-private premium and caution around higher leverage and integration risk.
WM Overview and Recent Performance
WM, formerly Waste Management, is North America's largest provider of comprehensive environmental solutions, headquartered in Houston, Texas. It operates the largest disposal network and collection fleet in the region and has expanded into recycling, renewable natural gas, and healthcare solutions through its Stericycle integration. Its scale and asset density create meaningful barriers to entry and support internalized waste disposal.
In recent quarters, WM has delivered consistent revenue and earnings growth, powered by core pricing gains, cost discipline, and sustainability-driven investments. Management reaffirmed its full-year outlook while returning substantial capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. The company faces some volume softness from weather and strategic shedding of lower-margin contracts, but profitability has remained resilient. Over the trailing 12 months, WM shares have posted solid gains, reflecting a steadier, more defensive market positioning than its smaller peer.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page highlights a curated selection of the platform's hundreds of AI trading bots, which collectively trade thousands of different tickers. Rather than listing every available strategy, the section showcases only those best suited to current market conditions. These bots span a wide range of trading styles, strategies, timeframes, performance statistics, and ticker coverage, so investors can evaluate approaches that match different risk tolerances and horizons. For traders seeking an automated, data-driven lens on names like GFL and WM, browsing the Trending AI Robots page can offer additional perspective on where momentum and stability currently intersect.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two names is growth versus stability. GFL pursues expansion through frequent acquisitions and carries elevated leverage, which magnifies both upside catalysts and downside risk. Its earnings have been uneven, with recent quarterly losses despite strong revenue growth, and its dividend is minimal. WM, by comparison, grows more slowly but converts its dominant network into dependable profitability and free cash flow, funding a meaningful dividend and aggressive buybacks.
On sector exposure, both share the same essential-services demand base, but WM has diversified further into renewable energy and healthcare services, adding growth optionality while also introducing commodity and integration risk. Momentum has favored GFL in recent weeks on deal-related optimism, yet its path is more event-driven, whereas WM reflects steadier, earnings-backed performance. Investors weighing these names are effectively choosing between higher-beta, catalyst-rich growth and lower-volatility, cash-generative stability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor WM on stability and trend consistency, given its reliable profitability, consistent capital returns, and established market positioning. However, GFL presents a more compelling catalyst-driven profile in the near term, with acquisition activity and a potential take-private transaction offering upside that is probabilistic rather than certain. The favorable choice depends heavily on an investor's timeframe and risk tolerance, with WM better suited to stability-seeking investors and GFL appealing to those willing to accept event-driven volatility.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GFL is a Buy and WM is a Buy.
GFL in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 02, 2026
GFL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 27 of 37 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GFL as a result. In 64 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GFL just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where GFL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Following a +2.09% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GFL advanced for three days, in 171 of 275 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 156 of 223 cases where GFL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GFL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
GFL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 23, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 4 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.708) is normal, around the industry mean (47.547). P/E Ratio (-97.234) is within average values for comparable stocks, (56.457). GFL's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.132). Dividend Yield (0.001) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.988) is also within normal values, averaging (72.867).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GFL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GFL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
WM in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026
WM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 27 of 47 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on WM as a result. In 44 of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WM just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where WM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The 10-day moving average for WM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 6 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 40%.
Following a +2.95% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WM advanced for three days, in 161 of 334 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 48%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 139 of 286 cases where WM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 49%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for WM moved out of overbought territory on October 28, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 19 of the 42 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 45%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 25 of 57 cases where WM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
WM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. WM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (9.451) is normal, around the industry mean (47.547). P/E Ratio (33.145) is within average values for comparable stocks, (56.457). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.888) is also within normal values, averaging (1.132). Dividend Yield (0.016) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.367) is also within normal values, averaging (72.867).
GFL | WM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 41 | 44 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 4 Undervalued | 78 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 73 | 16 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 92 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 25 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 97 | 36 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GFL's Valuation (4) in the null industry is significantly better than the same rating for WM (78) in the Environmental Services industry. This means that GFL’s stock grew significantly faster than WM’s over the last 12 months.
WM's Profit vs Risk Rating (16) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GFL (73) in the null industry. This means that WM’s stock grew somewhat faster than GFL’s over the last 12 months.
WM's SMR Rating (34) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GFL (92) in the null industry. This means that WM’s stock grew somewhat faster than GFL’s over the last 12 months.
WM's Price Growth Rating (25) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as GFL (41) in the null industry. This means that WM’s stock grew similarly to GFL’s over the last 12 months.
WM's P/E Growth Rating (36) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GFL (97) in the null industry. This means that WM’s stock grew somewhat faster than GFL’s over the last 12 months.
| GFL | WM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 45% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 44% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 54% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 55% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 44% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 48% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 66% | 8 days ago 47% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 49% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GFL’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while WM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- GFL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- WM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GFL’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WM’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GFL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- WM’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
GFL (@Environmental Services) experienced а +1.56% price change this week, while WM (@Environmental Services) price change was -0.48% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Environmental Services industry was -2.44%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.20%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.12%.
Reported Earning Dates
WM is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Environmental Services (-2.44% weekly)Environmental Services includes companies that collect and dispose of hazardous and non-hazardous waste. Their services include removal of toxic waste from soil, removing medical waste etc. Some companies also operate incinerators, sewerage systems, waste treatment plants, and landfills. Demand for waste management is likely to rise with increasing urbanization/industrialization. Waste Management, Inc., Republic Services, Inc., Waste Connections, Inc. and Tetra Tech, Inc. are some of the major companies in this business.
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GFL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GFL has been loosely correlated with WCN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 49% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if GFL jumps, then WCN could also see price increases.
WM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WM has been closely correlated with RSG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if WM jumps, then RSG could also see price increases.