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GFL vs WM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? GFL Environmental (GFL) vs. Waste Management (WM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- GFL has experienced heightened volatility in recent weeks amid reports of potential take-private interest and strategic financing activity, contrasting with WM’s steadier price action.
- Both companies operate in the waste management sector, yet WM maintains significantly larger scale with a market capitalization near $95 billion compared to GFL’s approximately $14 billion.
- Recent market activity shows GFL trading near $39.68 with mixed year-to-date returns, while WM trades around $238.75 and has demonstrated consistent upward momentum.
- GFL recently completed a $750 million senior notes offering to support acquisitions and declared a quarterly dividend, highlighting capital structure activity.
- WM is scheduled to report second-quarter results imminently, with analysts projecting continued revenue and earnings growth driven by pricing discipline.
- Sector exposure and free cash flow generation favor WM’s established network advantages, while GFL offers higher growth potential through consolidation and renewable energy initiatives.
Introduction
Investors and traders seeking exposure to the waste management and environmental services industry often evaluate GFL and WM as representative names within the sector. This comparison examines their relative performance, business models, and market positioning in the current environment. The analysis is particularly relevant for those focused on defensive growth stocks, infrastructure-related equities, or thematic plays in sustainability and waste processing. By contrasting scale, momentum, and risk factors, market participants can better assess allocation decisions between a larger, mature operator and a more agile consolidator.
GFL Overview and Recent Performance
GFL Environmental Inc. provides environmental services including solid waste collection, recycling, and renewable energy projects primarily across North America. In recent weeks, the stock has traded around the $39–40 range, reflecting volatility tied to reports of potential take-private discussions and financing activity. The company completed a $750 million senior notes offering to support acquisitions such as the SECURE Waste transaction and added to major U.S. equity indexes following its headquarters relocation. Recent analyst commentary has included both upward and downward price target revisions amid these developments. Broader market activity shows GFL maintaining exposure to pricing strength and margin expansion, though foreign exchange considerations and leverage introduce additional variables into performance trends.
WM Overview and Recent Performance
Waste Management, Inc. is a leading provider of waste collection, recycling, and disposal services with an extensive North American network. The stock has traded near $238–239 in recent market sessions, demonstrating relatively stable price behavior supported by consistent operational execution. WM benefits from strong pricing power and disciplined cost management, with first-quarter results highlighting revenue growth and margin expansion. The company is set to release second-quarter earnings shortly, with expectations centered on continued cash flow generation. Recent market activity reflects steady investor interest in its scale and shareholder return program, positioning it as a benchmark within the sector amid broader economic resilience in essential services.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
GFL and WM share core exposure to waste management yet differ markedly in scale and execution style. WM operates with substantially greater market capitalization and a more established infrastructure network, supporting steadier free cash flow and lower relative volatility. In contrast, GFL pursues aggressive growth through acquisitions and renewable natural gas projects, which can drive faster margin expansion but also elevate leverage and integration risks. Recent momentum favors WM’s pricing discipline and earnings visibility ahead of its upcoming report, while GFL has seen sharper sentiment shifts around corporate activity. Sector tailwinds from sustainability initiatives apply to both, though WM’s diversified portfolio and index inclusion provide broader market positioning advantages. Trade-offs center on stability versus growth optionality in the current environment.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron’s AI-driven analysis would likely assign a modest probabilistic edge to WM in the current setting. Its combination of scale, predictable cash flow generation, and established shareholder programs aligns with steadier signals for trend-sensitive models, while upcoming earnings provide near-term catalysts. GFL demonstrates notable momentum from consolidation activity and margin trends, yet higher leverage and event-driven volatility introduce greater uncertainty into sustained trend continuity. The preference remains probabilistic rather than absolute and reflects a risk-adjusted framework prioritizing resilience alongside growth.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GFL is a StrongBuy and WM is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GFL’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileWM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- GFL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- WM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GFL’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GFL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- WM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
GFL (@Environmental Services) experienced а -1.95% price change this week, while WM (@Environmental Services) price change was +0.08% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Environmental Services industry was +6.21%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.96%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2.22%.
Reported Earning Dates
WM is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Environmental Services (+6.21% weekly)Environmental Services includes companies that collect and dispose of hazardous and non-hazardous waste. Their services include removal of toxic waste from soil, removing medical waste etc. Some companies also operate incinerators, sewerage systems, waste treatment plants, and landfills. Demand for waste management is likely to rise with increasing urbanization/industrialization. Waste Management, Inc., Republic Services, Inc., Waste Connections, Inc. and Tetra Tech, Inc. are some of the major companies in this business.
| GFL | WM | GFL / WM | |
| Capitalization | 14.9B | 90.6B | 16% |
| EBITDA | 1.61B | 7.46B | 22% |
| Gain YTD | -4.008 | 3.995 | -100% |
| P/E Ratio | 108.15 | 59.67 | 181% |
| Revenue | 6.97B | 25.7B | 27% |
| Total Cash | 192M | 557M | 34% |
| Total Debt | 10.1B | 23.4B | 43% |
GFL | WM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 16 | 62 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 84 Overvalued | 39 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 67 | 20 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 93 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 55 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 100 | 12 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 55 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
WM's Valuation (39) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GFL (84) in the null industry. This means that WM’s stock grew somewhat faster than GFL’s over the last 12 months.
WM's Profit vs Risk Rating (20) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GFL (67) in the null industry. This means that WM’s stock grew somewhat faster than GFL’s over the last 12 months.
WM's SMR Rating (34) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GFL (93) in the null industry. This means that WM’s stock grew somewhat faster than GFL’s over the last 12 months.
WM's Price Growth Rating (55) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as GFL (55) in the null industry. This means that WM’s stock grew similarly to GFL’s over the last 12 months.
WM's P/E Growth Rating (12) in the Environmental Services industry is significantly better than the same rating for GFL (100) in the null industry. This means that WM’s stock grew significantly faster than GFL’s over the last 12 months.
| GFL | WM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 66% | 5 days ago 39% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 56% | 5 days ago 52% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 68% | 5 days ago 46% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 65% | 5 days ago 43% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 67% | 5 days ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 67% | 5 days ago 36% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 66% | 19 days ago 48% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 22 days ago 67% | 7 days ago 43% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 65% | 5 days ago 50% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 72% | 5 days ago 46% |
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GFL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GFL has been loosely correlated with WCN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 53% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if GFL jumps, then WCN could also see price increases.
WM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WM has been closely correlated with RSG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if WM jumps, then RSG could also see price increases.