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GFL vs WM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? GFL Environmental (GFL) vs. Waste Management (WM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- GFL and WM operate in the waste management sector, with WM boasting a significantly larger market capitalization of approximately $92.6 billion compared to GFL's $14.6 billion.
- Year-to-date, GFL has shown slightly stronger returns at +5.88% versus WM's +4.88%, amid recent market activity.
- GFL's recent acquisition of SECURE Waste Infrastructure and dividend increase signal growth pursuits, while WM maintains stability ahead of its Q1 earnings.
- WM trades at a lower price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34.26 versus GFL's 98.56, reflecting WM's more mature valuation.
- GFL exhibits higher volatility, making it suitable for growth-oriented traders, while WM offers defensive qualities with consistent operations.
- Both stocks benefit from sector tailwinds in environmental services, but relative performance hinges on execution in recent weeks.
Introduction
In the competitive waste management industry, GFL Environmental and Waste Management (WM) stand out as key publicly traded players. This stock comparison analyzes their business models, recent performance, and market positioning to aid investors and traders evaluating sector exposure. Growth-focused investors may eye GFL's expansion strategy, while those seeking stability might prefer WM's scale. With both navigating pricing dynamics, volume trends, and regulatory environments in recent market activity, understanding their relative strengths helps inform portfolio decisions in this essential services sector.
GFL Overview and Recent Performance
GFL Environmental provides non-hazardous solid waste management services across Canada and the United States, encompassing collection, recycling, and disposal for diverse customers. In recent weeks, the stock has traded around $40.41, with year-to-date gains of 5.88% amid broader market fluctuations. Key influences include the April acquisition of SECURE Waste Infrastructure for a 23% premium, bolstering infrastructure assets and potential index inclusion. Earlier Q4 2025 results showed 7.3% revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margin expansion to 30%, driving positive sentiment. A 10% quarterly dividend hike further supports shareholder returns, though high debt levels and acquisition integration pose risks.
WM Overview and Recent Performance
Waste Management (WM) delivers comprehensive environmental solutions, including waste collection, recycling, and landfill operations across North America and beyond. The stock recently hovered near $229.53, posting year-to-date returns of 4.88% with modest one-month dips. Recent market activity features anticipation for Q1 2026 earnings, expected to show EPS growth, alongside a March dividend increase of 14.5% that reinforced capital return commitments. Defensive positioning and operational efficiency have sustained performance, though minor share price dips reflect broader sector pressures. Strong profitability metrics, including a 10.74% profit margin, underpin investor confidence.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both GFL and WM thrive in environmental services, but diverge in scale and strategy. WM's integrated model spans collection to energy recovery, yielding superior ROE (return on equity) at 29.7% and lower volatility. GFL emphasizes M&A-driven growth, evident in recent deals, but carries higher debt/equity (106%) and elevated P/E, signaling growth premiums versus WM's value orientation. Momentum favors GFL's YTD edge, yet WM's stability shines in risk-averse environments. Sector exposure is similar, with sentiment tilting toward WM's consistency amid economic uncertainty, while GFL offers upside from expansion catalysts.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI models currently lean toward WM due to its trend consistency, lower valuation multiples, and defensive market positioning. GFL's growth catalysts provide probabilistic upside, but WM's scale and profitability metrics suggest higher probability of relative outperformance in the near term, barring major sector shifts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GFL is a StrongBuy and WM is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GFL’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileWM’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- GFL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- WM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GFL’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GFL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- WM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
GFL (@Environmental Services) experienced а +1.30% price change this week, while WM (@Environmental Services) price change was -0.43% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Environmental Services industry was -1.84%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +8.85%, and the average quarterly price growth was -2.73%.
Reported Earning Dates
WM is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Environmental Services (-1.84% weekly)Environmental Services includes companies that collect and dispose of hazardous and non-hazardous waste. Their services include removal of toxic waste from soil, removing medical waste etc. Some companies also operate incinerators, sewerage systems, waste treatment plants, and landfills. Demand for waste management is likely to rise with increasing urbanization/industrialization. Waste Management, Inc., Republic Services, Inc., Waste Connections, Inc. and Tetra Tech, Inc. are some of the major companies in this business.
| GFL | WM | GFL / WM | |
| Capitalization | 13B | 88.1B | 15% |
| EBITDA | 1.95B | 7.34B | 27% |
| Gain YTD | -16.188 | 0.713 | -2,269% |
| P/E Ratio | 98.38 | 31.76 | 310% |
| Revenue | 6.7B | 25.4B | 26% |
| Total Cash | 1.44B | 158M | 909% |
| Total Debt | 9.83B | 22.9B | 43% |
GFL | WM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 24 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 82 Overvalued | 33 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 83 | 22 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 90 | 33 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 73 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 100 | 64 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
WM's Valuation (33) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GFL (82) in the null industry. This means that WM’s stock grew somewhat faster than GFL’s over the last 12 months.
WM's Profit vs Risk Rating (22) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GFL (83) in the null industry. This means that WM’s stock grew somewhat faster than GFL’s over the last 12 months.
WM's SMR Rating (33) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GFL (90) in the null industry. This means that WM’s stock grew somewhat faster than GFL’s over the last 12 months.
WM's Price Growth Rating (58) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as GFL (73) in the null industry. This means that WM’s stock grew similarly to GFL’s over the last 12 months.
WM's P/E Growth Rating (64) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GFL (100) in the null industry. This means that WM’s stock grew somewhat faster than GFL’s over the last 12 months.
| GFL | WM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 80% | 3 days ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 41% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 51% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 56% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 41% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 49% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 66% | 5 days ago 50% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 66% | 17 days ago 42% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 35% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 27% |
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WM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WM has been closely correlated with RSG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if WM jumps, then RSG could also see price increases.