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HBAN vs KEY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) vs. KeyCorp (KEY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) is expanding through acquisitions such as Cadence Bank, reshaping its footprint across Texas and the Southeast, while KeyCorp (KEY) is leaning on organic loan growth and fee-based businesses.
- Both are Midwest-based super-regional banks, but their recent momentum differs: KEY has posted stronger earnings growth, while HBAN has seen share price momentum cool after a multi-year run.
- KeyCorp reports higher capital buffers and expanding net interest margin (NIM), while Huntington is absorbing deal-related costs and integrating new franchises.
- Analyst consensus is constructive on both names, though HBAN's ratings skew more heavily toward "Strong Buy."
- Credit quality, deposit competition, and the path of interest rates remain shared risk factors across the regional-bank sector.
Introduction
Investors tracking the regional-banking sector often face a choice between similarly positioned names with meaningfully different growth strategies. Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) and KeyCorp (KEY) are two Ohio-headquartered super-regional banks that make an instructive pairing: both are deposit-heavy franchises with strong Midwest roots, yet each is pursuing a distinct path to earnings growth. For traders and longer-term investors alike, comparing their relative performance, market positioning, and catalysts can clarify which stock aligns better with current conditions. This stock comparison examines recent developments, momentum, and risk factors to help readers understand how these two financial institutions stack up today.
HBAN Overview and Recent Performance
HBAN, the holding company for The Huntington National Bank, operates commercial, consumer, and mortgage banking across a growing multi-state footprint. In recent quarters, Huntington has been executing an acquisition-driven expansion: the Veritex deal deepened its Texas presence, while the announced Cadence Bank transaction extends its reach into the Southeast and Carolinas. Management has framed this as building a differentiated "super-regional" model combining national capabilities with local delivery.
Recent market activity has been mixed. Huntington reported solid first-quarter results driven by loan and deposit growth, but deal-related expenses weighed on reported earnings, and the company's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio, a key measure of a bank's financial strength, dipped modestly to about 10.2% as the balance sheet absorbed the Cadence acquisition. Over recent weeks, HBAN's share price has pulled back from earlier highs, with momentum fading even as longer-term total returns remain strong. Sentiment has been split: several analysts maintain Buy or Strong Buy ratings, while others caution that funding-cost pressure on net interest income (NII), the spread banks earn between interest collected on loans and interest paid on deposits, could blunt near-term growth.
KEY Overview and Recent Performance
KEY, the parent of KeyBank National Association, is a Cleveland-based regional bank with a diversified model spanning commercial and consumer banking, wealth management, and a notable investment-banking franchise through KeyBanc Capital Markets. A 2024 strategic investment from Scotiabank strengthened its balance sheet and supported a securities-portfolio repositioning that has lifted earnings power.
KeyCorp's recent performance has been comparatively strong. First-quarter earnings per share (EPS) rose roughly 33% year over year, revenue grew about 10%, and net interest margin expanded to approximately 2.87%, with management guiding toward above 3% by year-end. Its CET1 ratio of about 11.4% places it among the better-capitalized regional banks. Growth is being driven by commercial loan expansion, robust investment-banking and debt-placement fees, and rising fee-based businesses in wealth and commercial payments. The company also authorized a $3 billion share-repurchase program and has guided to meaningful buybacks. Credit costs have ticked modestly higher, a factor investors are watching, but the core earnings trajectory has been a source of relative strength.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two banks diverge most clearly in growth strategy. Huntington is pursuing a capital-intensive, deal-driven expansion, which offers scale and new markets but carries integration and execution risk, visible in the temporary CET1 compression and acquisition-related charges. KeyCorp, by contrast, is emphasizing organic loan growth, capital return, and fee-income expansion, supported by a stronger capital position and improving NIM.
On momentum, KEY has shown the more consistent earnings acceleration, while HBAN's share price has cooled as the market digests its M&A (mergers and acquisitions) pipeline. Risk profiles also differ: Huntington carries elevated allowance-for-credit-losses tied to its new loan book, whereas KeyCorp faces a modest uptick in net charge-offs (loans written off as uncollectible) concentrated in select commercial credits. Both remain sensitive to deposit costs, the Federal Reserve's rate path, and commercial real estate exposure common across the regional-bank group.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely tilt toward KeyCorp (KEY) in the current environment. The stock's steadier earnings trajectory, expanding net interest margin, superior CET1 capital ratio, and clearer capital-return story provide the consistency and catalyst visibility that trend-following models tend to favor. Huntington's acquisition-driven transformation may offer longer-term upside, but its near-term integration costs and fading price momentum introduce more uncertainty. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive and reflects relative positioning at a point in time, not a forecast of future returns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HBAN is a Hold and KEY is a Hold.
HBAN sees its 50-day moving average cross bearishly below its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for HBAN moved below the 200-day moving average on October 05, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 35 of 56 cases where HBAN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 16, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on HBAN as a result. In 48 of 75 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HBAN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
The Aroon Indicator for HBAN entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where HBAN's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 14 of 19 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for HBAN just turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where HBAN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
HBAN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. HBAN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock slightly worse than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 65 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.037) is normal, around the industry mean (1.237). P/E Ratio (11.568) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.122). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.829) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.041) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.863) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
KEY sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
On October 05, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for KEY moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 59 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 44 of the 59 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where KEY's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 20 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for KEY just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where KEY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Following a +1.01% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KEY advanced for three days, in 177 of 296 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
KEY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 16, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on KEY as a result. In 55 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
The 50-day moving average for KEY moved below the 200-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KEY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
The Aroon Indicator for KEY entered a downward trend on October 16, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 54 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.233) is normal, around the industry mean (1.237). P/E Ratio (11.555) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.122). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.332) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.041) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.996) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. KEY’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. KEY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
HBAN | KEY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 84 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 65 Fair valued | 54 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 63 | 78 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 6 | 7 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 57 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 30 | 87 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KEY's Valuation (54) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as HBAN (65) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to HBAN’s over the last 12 months.
HBAN's Profit vs Risk Rating (63) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (78) in the Major Banks industry. This means that HBAN’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
HBAN's SMR Rating (6) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (7) in the Major Banks industry. This means that HBAN’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
KEY's Price Growth Rating (57) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as HBAN (59) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to HBAN’s over the last 12 months.
HBAN's P/E Growth Rating (30) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (87) in the Major Banks industry. This means that HBAN’s stock grew somewhat faster than KEY’s over the last 12 months.
| HBAN | KEY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 74% | 4 days ago 71% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 56% | 4 days ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | N/A | 4 days ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 61% | 6 days ago 70% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 66% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 48% | 4 days ago 63% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HBAN’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while KEY’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- HBAN’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- KEY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HBAN’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KEY’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HBAN’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- KEY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
HBAN (@Regional Banks) experienced а -0.33% price change this week, while KEY (@Regional Banks) price change was +0.10% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was -0.78%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.57%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.61%.
Reported Earning Dates
HBAN is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
KEY is expected to report earnings on Oct 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (-0.78% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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HBAN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HBAN has been closely correlated with FITB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HBAN jumps, then FITB could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To HBAN | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HBAN | 100% | -0.52% | ||
| FITB - HBAN | 88% Closely correlated | +0.04% | ||
| RF - HBAN | 85% Closely correlated | +0.51% | ||
| KEY - HBAN | 85% Closely correlated | +0.25% | ||
| PNC - HBAN | 85% Closely correlated | +1.14% | ||
| MTB - HBAN | 84% Closely correlated | -1.54% | ||
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KEY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KEY has been closely correlated with CFG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KEY jumps, then CFG could also see price increases.