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HII vs NOC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) vs. Northrop Grumman (NOC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both HII and NOC are U.S. defense prime contractors, but they occupy distinct niches: shipbuilding versus diversified aerospace and mission systems.
- HII has delivered accelerating shipbuilding revenue and raised its full-year outlook, while NOC is scaling production on long-duration programs such as the B-21 bomber and Sentinel missile.
- Both stocks have traded lower year-to-date despite record backlogs, reflecting margin pressure and defense-budget uncertainty rather than weak demand.
- NOC carries a substantially larger scale and backlog (roughly $105 billion) versus HII (around $54 billion), creating different risk and reward profiles.
- Relative performance has favored companies with firmer near-term margins, a key differentiator an AI model would weigh in this stock comparison.
Introduction
Investors comparing defense contractors often weigh pure-play specialization against diversified scale. HII, or Huntington Ingalls Industries, is the largest U.S. military shipbuilder and a concentrated play on naval demand. NOC, or Northrop Grumman, spans aeronautics, space, missile, and mission systems. This comparison is relevant for traders and long-term investors assessing how two names with exposure to the same defense-spending cycle differ in business model, momentum, and risk. With both stocks having pulled back from recent highs despite robust order activity, the distinction between execution risk and valuation opportunity has become central to their market positioning.
HII Overview and Recent Performance
Huntington Ingalls Industries designs, builds, and maintains nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, submarines, and surface combatants through its Newport News Shipbuilding and Ingalls Shipbuilding divisions, alongside a growing Mission Technologies segment focused on unmanned and autonomous systems. Recent market activity has been marked by strong fundamentals but a cooling share price. HII reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of $3.10 billion, up 13% year over year, with earnings per share (EPS) of $3.79, and followed with second-quarter sales of roughly $3.4 billion and EPS of $5.27. Management raised its full-year shipbuilding revenue outlook and lifted the low end of its margin guidance, while total backlog reached approximately $54 billion. Despite these improvements, shares have fallen more than 20% year-to-date in recent weeks, as investors weighed execution challenges on carrier programs, seasonally negative free cash flow, and broader sector sentiment. A $56 million AUKUS submarine-related contract and progress on the John F. Kennedy carrier highlight ongoing demand, but margin recovery remains the central question for the stock.
NOC Overview and Recent Performance
Northrop Grumman is a diversified defense and aerospace prime with segments spanning aeronautics, space systems, missile and defense systems, and mission systems. Recent market activity reflects a similar pattern of solid demand against a softer share price. NOC reported second-quarter sales of $10.88 billion, up 5% year over year, with EPS of $7.68, and lifted full-year revenue guidance to a range of $43.75 billion to $44.25 billion. Its backlog reached a record of approximately $105 billion. However, operating margin declined to about 10.1% from 13.8% a year earlier, partly reflecting a prior-year divestiture benefit and a charge on the GEM 63XL rocket program. Shares have traded down roughly 11% to 15% year-to-date in recent weeks, even after notable developments such as the FORTITUDE gallium nitride chip announcement and autonomous flight milestones. Investors are weighing the company's long-duration growth programs against pressure on fixed-price contracts and near-term profitability.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two stocks is concentration versus diversification. HII is a pure-play shipbuilder whose fate is closely tied to naval budgets, carrier and submarine execution, and throughput improvements at its shipyards. Its growth drivers are highly concentrated but also highly visible, given multi-year Navy commitments. NOC offers broader exposure across air, space, missile, and electronic systems, which diversifies program risk but also exposes it to a wider set of fixed-price contract pressures. On momentum, HII has shown faster recent revenue growth, while NOC enjoys greater scale and a much larger backlog. Risk factors differ as well: HII faces shipbuilding margin and cash-flow conversion hurdles, whereas NOC contends with program-cost growth and defense-budget uncertainty. Sentiment toward both has softened, but their relative performance will likely hinge on which company demonstrates more consistent margin expansion in the quarters ahead.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely view NOC as the more defensively positioned of the two, given its diversified revenue base, record backlog, and more stable cash generation, which tend to produce smoother trend signals. However, HII may present a stronger relative momentum catalyst if its accelerating shipbuilding revenue and raised guidance translate into sustained margin improvement. The AI verdict would therefore be probabilistic rather than absolute: NOC appears favored on trend consistency and stability, while HII offers a higher-beta setup contingent on execution. A quantitative model would likely monitor both for confirmation of improving margins before assigning stronger conviction to either side of this comparison.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HII is a Hold and NOC is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for HII turns positive, indicating new upward trend
HII saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 16, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 77 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 53 of the 77 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where HII's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 29 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 36 of 53 cases where HII's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for HII just turned positive on October 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where HII's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 23 of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Following a +2.82% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HII advanced for three days, in 205 of 337 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
HII may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HII declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
The Aroon Indicator for HII entered a downward trend on October 16, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.018) is normal, around the industry mean (4.941). P/E Ratio (16.200) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.156). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.788) is also within normal values, averaging (2.564). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.061) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.830) is also within normal values, averaging (18.330).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HII’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 67 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HII’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
NOC's RSI Indicator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for NOC moved out of oversold territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 31 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 19 of the 31 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 61%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NOC as a result. In 40 of 72 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NOC just turned positive on October 14, 2026. Looking at past instances where NOC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Following a +4.88% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NOC advanced for three days, in 196 of 327 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NOC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
NOC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for NOC entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NOC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 74 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.130) is normal, around the industry mean (4.941). P/E Ratio (16.493) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.156). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.350) is also within normal values, averaging (2.564). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.061) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.766) is also within normal values, averaging (18.330).
HII | NOC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 62 | 64 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 50 Fair valued | 74 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 67 | 59 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 61 | 36 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 70 | 73 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HII's Valuation (50) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as NOC (74). This means that HII’s stock grew similarly to NOC’s over the last 12 months.
NOC's Profit vs Risk Rating (59) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as HII (67). This means that NOC’s stock grew similarly to HII’s over the last 12 months.
NOC's SMR Rating (36) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as HII (61). This means that NOC’s stock grew similarly to HII’s over the last 12 months.
NOC's Price Growth Rating (59) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as HII (60). This means that NOC’s stock grew similarly to HII’s over the last 12 months.
HII's P/E Growth Rating (70) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as NOC (73). This means that HII’s stock grew similarly to NOC’s over the last 12 months.
| HII | NOC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 61% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 4 days ago 59% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 56% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 57% | 4 days ago 58% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 44% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 60% | 15 days ago 49% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 55% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 60% | 4 days ago 46% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HII’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while NOC’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- HII’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- NOC’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HII’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NOC’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HII’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 2 bearish.
- NOC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
HII (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а +2.72% price change this week, while NOC (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was +8.14% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was -4.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -13.62%, and the average quarterly price growth was -19.39%.
Reported Earning Dates
HII is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
NOC is expected to report earnings on Oct 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (-4.71% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
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HII and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HII has been loosely correlated with KTOS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 54% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if HII jumps, then KTOS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To HII | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HII | 100% | -0.87% | ||
| KTOS - HII | 54% Loosely correlated | -3.09% | ||
| GD - HII | 53% Loosely correlated | -0.81% | ||
| LMT - HII | 52% Loosely correlated | -0.70% | ||
| NOC - HII | 52% Loosely correlated | -1.77% | ||
| KRMN - HII | 50% Loosely correlated | -2.22% | ||
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NOC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NOC has been closely correlated with LMT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NOC jumps, then LMT could also see price increases.