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HRI vs URI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Herc Holdings (HRI) vs. United Rentals (URI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- HRI is growing faster on a percentage basis after completing the industry's largest-ever acquisition (H&E Equipment Services), while URI delivers far larger scale and stronger profitability.
- Both companies beat analyst estimates in recent quarters and raised full-year guidance, but URI's stock has shown notably stronger momentum and sentiment.
- URI carries a much lower leverage ratio (around 1.8x-1.9x) versus HRI's roughly 3.9x following its H&E deal.
- URI is the industry leader with a larger, more diversified fleet and a "one-stop shop" model; HRI is a leaner, faster-growing challenger.
- Relative performance, valuation, and integration risk are the key trade-offs separating these two equipment-rental stocks.
Introduction
Herc Holdings (HRI) and United Rentals (URI) are two of North America's most prominent equipment rental companies, serving construction, industrial, infrastructure, and energy customers. Because they operate in the same cyclical sector, their relative performance often reflects broader shifts in construction demand, mega-project activity, and interest-rate expectations. This stock comparison is most relevant to investors and traders weighing a large, established market leader against a smaller, acquisition-driven competitor. Understanding how each company is positioned on growth, balance-sheet strength, and valuation can help clarify which profile may suit a given market environment.
HRI Overview and Recent Performance
Herc Holdings, which operates through its Herc Rentals subsidiary, is a full-line equipment rental supplier with roughly 609 locations across North America. The company's classic fleet spans aerial, earthmoving, and material-handling equipment, while its ProSolutions business adds specialized offerings such as power generation and climate control. In recent quarters, HRI has been defined by its acquisition of H&E Equipment Services, which management has described as the largest transaction in the industry's history. The integration was completed in early 2026, and the deal has materially expanded the fleet, specialty footprint, and sales network.
Recent results have been strong at the top line. Quarterly equipment rental revenue has grown more than 20% year over year, driven by the larger fleet and higher volume from mega projects. The company also raised its full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) guidance after a solid second-quarter report. That said, HRI's stock has underperformed over recent months, with shares lower year to date despite the earnings beats, reflecting integration costs, elevated debt, and a higher valuation multiple that has weighed on sentiment.
URI Overview and Recent Performance
United Rentals is the world's largest equipment rental company, with a vast network and a diversified general and specialty rental portfolio spanning construction and industrial end markets. Its scale, combined with a "one-stop shop" approach across rental, new and used equipment sales, and contractor supplies, gives it a differentiated competitive position. In recent quarters, URI has posted record first-quarter results, with total revenue rising modestly year over year while adjusted earnings per share grew at a high single-digit pace and beat consensus estimates.
The company has consistently highlighted strength beyond the well-known data-center boom, pointing to healthy non-residential construction, infrastructure, and double-digit growth in power-related projects. Management raised full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, and the stock responded with a sharp rally following its earnings release, building on a strong year-to-date gain. Balance-sheet discipline remains a distinguishing feature: net leverage sits comfortably within management's target range, and the company continues returning capital through share repurchases and a growing dividend.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between the two companies is scale versus growth. URI generates several times the revenue of HRI, enjoys wider margins, and maintains a stronger balance sheet with substantially lower leverage. HRI, by contrast, is posting faster percentage revenue growth as it absorbs its H&E acquisition and pursues synergies, but it carries meaningfully higher debt and a more expensive earnings multiple relative to its size.
On momentum and sentiment, URI has been the clear outperformer in recent market activity, with a substantial year-to-date advance supported by guidance increases and upward estimate revisions. HRI's stock has lagged despite solid operational results, as investors weigh integration execution, elevated leverage, and a richer valuation. Both businesses share cyclical exposure to construction and industrial spending, but their risk profiles differ: URI offers scale and stability, while HRI offers a more leveraged, acquisition-driven growth narrative.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor URI in the current environment. The company's trend consistency, record quarterly results, rising guidance, and comparatively stronger balance sheet point to more stable relative positioning and clearer catalysts. HRI presents a more leveraged and integration-heavy setup, which tends to reduce the probability of sustained trend persistence even when growth is rapid. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, and both stocks carry meaningful cyclical risk tied to construction and industrial demand.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HRI is a Hold and URI is a StrongBuy.
HRI's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for HRI turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where HRI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +6.52% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HRI advanced for three days, in 233 of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
HRI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 46 of 63 cases where HRI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 26, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on HRI as a result. In 65 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HRI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
The Aroon Indicator for HRI entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. HRI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.249) is normal, around the industry mean (2.017). P/E Ratio (74.782) is within average values for comparable stocks, (27.776). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.043) is also within normal values, averaging (0.988). Dividend Yield (0.022) settles around the average of (0.037) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.984) is also within normal values, averaging (1.703).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HRI’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 73, placing this stock worse than average.
Momentum Indicator for URI turns positive, indicating new upward trend
URI saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 92 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 75 of the 92 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for URI just turned positive on October 21, 2026. Looking at past instances where URI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
URI moved above its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for URI crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Following a +5.74% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where URI advanced for three days, in 249 of 342 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 207 of 275 cases where URI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 75%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where URI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
URI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 26, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. URI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 91 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: URI's P/B Ratio (7.570) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.048). P/E Ratio (26.923) is within average values for comparable stocks, (28.342). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.356) is also within normal values, averaging (0.988). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.037) among similar stocks. URI's P/S Ratio (3.791) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.703).
HRI | URI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 32 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | 91 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 13 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 88 | 35 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 24 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 89 | 23 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HRI's Valuation (83) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as URI (91). This means that HRI’s stock grew similarly to URI’s over the last 12 months.
URI's Profit vs Risk Rating (13) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is significantly better than the same rating for HRI (100). This means that URI’s stock grew significantly faster than HRI’s over the last 12 months.
URI's SMR Rating (35) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HRI (88). This means that URI’s stock grew somewhat faster than HRI’s over the last 12 months.
URI's Price Growth Rating (24) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HRI (60). This means that URI’s stock grew somewhat faster than HRI’s over the last 12 months.
URI's P/E Growth Rating (23) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is significantly better than the same rating for HRI (89). This means that URI’s stock grew significantly faster than HRI’s over the last 12 months.
| HRI | URI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 62% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 1 day ago 82% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 1 day ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 1 day ago 73% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 72% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 9 days ago 67% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 1 day ago 75% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HRI’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while URI’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- HRI’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- URI’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HRI’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while URI’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HRI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- URI’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
HRI (@Finance/Rental/Leasing) experienced а +24.47% price change this week, while URI (@Finance/Rental/Leasing) price change was +11.32% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Finance/Rental/Leasing industry was +5.27%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.23%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.08%.
Reported Earning Dates
HRI is expected to report earnings on Feb 16, 2027.
URI is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Finance/Rental/Leasing (+5.27% weekly)A leasing company (e.g. United Rentals, Inc. ) is typically the legal owner of the asset for the duration of the lease, while the lessee has operating control over the asset while also having some share of the economic risks and returns from the change in the valuation of the underlying asset. Per capita disposable income and corporate earnings or cash flow could be some of the critical metrics for this business – the higher the values of these metrics, the potentially greater ability of consumers/businesses to afford apartments/office spaces for rent. Other finance companies include credit/debit card payment processing companies (e.g. Visa Inc. and Mastercard), private label credit cards providers (e.g. Synchrony Financial) and automobile finance companies (e.g. Credit Acceptance Corporation).
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HRI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HRI has been closely correlated with URI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 68% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HRI jumps, then URI could also see price increases.
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