Investors seeking exposure to U.S. commercial real estate frequently compare IYR, the iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF, with VNQ, the Vanguard Real Estate ETF. The two funds compete directly: both are passively managed, both are dominated by equity REITs (real estate investment trusts, which are companies that own and operate income-producing property), and both carry substantial weight in healthcare, industrial, and data-center landlords. Yet the two ETFs assemble that exposure very differently. IYR concentrates on a smaller, large-cap universe at a higher cost, while VNQ casts a broader net across the entire market-cap spectrum. Understanding those structural differences—rather than short-term price moves—is essential for any investor weighing the two against each other.
IYR seeks to track the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Capped Index, a market-capitalization-weighted benchmark of U.S. real estate equities. Launched in 2000, it is one of the oldest real estate ETFs, holding roughly 62 positions with an expense ratio of 0.37%. Its top holdings include WELL (Welltower), PLD (Prologis), AMT (American Tower), SPG (Simon Property Group), EQIX (Equinix), and DLR (Digital Realty), with well over 90% of assets in large-cap names. The fund is almost entirely real estate, with a small residual allocation to communication services. Because the underlying index applies caps, it limits any single holding's weight, though its narrower roster still leaves meaningful concentration in the largest REITs.
VNQ, launched in 2004, tracks the MSCI US Investable Market Real Estate 25/50 Index, which spans large-, mid-, and small-cap U.S. real estate companies. It holds roughly 150 stocks at an expense ratio of 0.13%, using a full-replication, passively managed approach. Its largest positions overlap with IYR—including WELL, PLD, EQIX, AMT, and SPG—but VNQ also holds a layer of smaller REITs and property-related businesses such as CBRE (CBRE Group) that IYR does not meaningfully include. The portfolio is nearly 99% real estate, with healthcare, retail, industrial, telecom-tower, and data-center REITs among its largest sub-industries. Its scale, low cost, and breadth make it the reference core holding for many U.S. real estate investors.
Both ETFs sit squarely within the interest-rate-sensitive real estate sector, where REIT valuations historically move inversely to long-term Treasury yields. Recent market cycles have been shaped by shifting Federal Reserve rate expectations, with lower yields generally supportive of property income and higher yields pressuring net asset values. Structural themes are also reshaping the sector: data-center REITs and tower operators have benefited from artificial-intelligence and cloud demand, while industrial landlords tied to logistics have navigated a post-pandemic normalization. Conversely, office and some retail properties remain challenged by remote-work trends and e-commerce. Sector-wide, capital flows into real estate have been uneven, as investors weigh durable income against financing costs and a slower transaction environment.
Over recent weeks and months, IYR and VNQ have moved largely in tandem, reflecting their shared mega-cap REIT exposure and near-identical beta, or sensitivity to broad market swings. Because both funds lean heavily on the same top holdings, their relative performance is driven less by direction than by breadth. VNQ's inclusion of small- and mid-cap names and non-REIT property companies has historically added modest diversification, while IYR's tighter large-cap focus can magnify moves in the biggest landlords. In recent cycles, the sector's rotation has favored data-center, healthcare, and storage REITs, while rate-sensitive segments have lagged. Net effect: the two funds are close substitutes in aggregate, with VNQ offering a broader, lower-cost expression of the same theme.
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Weighing the observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor VNQ over IYR. VNQ holds a clear structural advantage on cost (0.13% versus 0.37%), which compounds over time and is difficult for IYR to overcome given their similar sector exposure. VNQ's broader diversification across roughly 150 holdings reduces single-name concentration risk, and its significantly larger asset base supports tighter spreads and deep liquidity. While IYR offers a more concentrated, large-cap tilt that may outperform in narrow rallies led by the biggest REITs, the probabilistic edge on a risk-adjusted basis points to VNQ's lower fees, wider diversification, and steadier trend profile as the stronger structural choice.
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The RSI Indicator for IYR moved out of oversold territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 25 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 22 of the 25 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 88%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on IYR as a result. In 66 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for IYR just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where IYR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
IYR moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for IYR crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Following a +1.44% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where IYR advanced for three days, in 255 of 309 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 50-day moving average for IYR moved below the 200-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where IYR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
IYR broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for IYR entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The RSI Oscillator for VNQ moved out of oversold territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 28 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 25 of the 28 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 89%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on VNQ as a result. In 70 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for VNQ just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where VNQ's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
VNQ moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for VNQ crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Following a +1.27% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VNQ advanced for three days, in 253 of 302 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 50-day moving average for VNQ moved below the 200-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VNQ declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
VNQ broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for VNQ entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
| IYR | VNQ | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | 2 days ago 89% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 79% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 83% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 83% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 83% | 3 days ago 84% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 85% | 8 days ago 84% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 89% | 2 days ago 85% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 78% |
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, IYR has been closely correlated with HIW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if IYR jumps, then HIW could also see price increases.
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| ERY | 7.99 | 0.12 | +1.52% |
| Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X ETF (ERY) | |||
| RSST | 33.49 | 0.26 | +0.78% |
| Return Stacked U.S. Stocks & Managed Futures ETF (RSST) | |||
| FLAO | 28.65 | 0.02 | +0.06% |
| AllianzIM U.S. Equity 6 Month Floor5 Apr/Oct ETF (FLAO) | |||
| GXIG | 24.04 | N/A | N/A |
| Global X Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (GXIG) | |||
| GNR | 73.80 | -0.89 | -1.19% |
| State Street SPDR S&P Global Natural Resources ETF (GNR) | |||