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JNJ vs LLY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) vs. Eli Lilly (LLY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Two very different growth profiles: JNJ is a diversified healthcare bellwether posting steady single-digit growth, while LLY is a high-momentum obesity and diabetes leader growing revenue at a much faster clip.
- JNJ's latest quarter was mixed: strong pharmaceutical results were partly offset by sluggish MedTech (medical technology) sales, and management is weighing a spinoff of its orthopedics unit.
- LLY's relative performance has been stronger, driven by surging demand for its GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) medicines Mounjaro and Zepbound, though pricing pressure remains a watch item.
- Valuation gap is wide: LLY trades at a premium multiple to the sector, while JNJ trades at a more modest valuation with a dividend-oriented profile.
- Momentum versus stability is the central trade-off: LLY offers faster growth and higher volatility, while JNJ offers diversification and steadier cash generation.
Introduction
Healthcare investors often weigh two sharply different playbooks when comparing JNJ (Johnson & Johnson) and LLY (Eli Lilly). One is a diversified, 140-year-old healthcare conglomerate spanning pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and consumer staples; the other is a pure-play pharmaceutical company that has become one of the world's largest drugmakers on the back of the obesity and diabetes boom. This stock comparison is relevant to growth-oriented traders evaluating relative performance and to income-focused investors assessing market positioning and stability. Because the two names respond to different catalysts, their recent behavior offers a useful lens on how sentiment is shifting across the broader healthcare sector.
JNJ Overview and Recent Performance
JNJ operates two main segments: Innovative Medicine (pharmaceuticals) and MedTech (medical devices and surgical technology). In its most recent quarterly report, total revenue rose 5.9% year over year to $25.4 billion, while adjusted EPS (earnings per share) of $2.59 topped analyst expectations. Growth was concentrated in Innovative Medicine, which advanced 7.7% behind blockbusters such as Tremfya, Darzalex, and Tecvayli.
The quarter also highlighted persistent softness in MedTech, where sales grew only 2.5% and missed forecasts. Management cited geopolitical pressures in the Middle East, European austerity measures, and pricing challenges in China. The company also signaled it is leaning toward a spinoff of its orthopedics division rather than a sale. Despite a raised full-year outlook—adjusted EPS of $11.05 to $11.15 and sales above $100 billion—shares pulled back in recent market activity, reflecting investor caution about the slower-growing device unit.
LLY Overview and Recent Performance
LLY (Eli Lilly) is a global pharmaceutical company whose recent narrative has been dominated by its incretin-based medicines for diabetes and weight management. In its most recent reported quarter, revenue jumped roughly 48% year over year, led by Mounjaro (up about 91%) and Zepbound (up about 46%). A new oral obesity treatment, Foundayo, began contributing sales, and the company is advancing retatrutide, a next-generation triple-action obesity candidate it expects to file for U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval in early 2027.
The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to a range of $85 billion to $87 billion. However, LLY shares have pulled back from recent highs in recent weeks, as investors weighed volume-led growth against realized price declines and competitive and pricing-policy uncertainties. Despite the retreat, analyst sentiment remains broadly positive, with a consensus Buy rating and price targets well above recent trading levels.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between JNJ and LLY is growth versus diversification. LLY is concentrated around a fast-growing metabolic franchise, which fuels rapid revenue expansion but also leaves it more sensitive to pricing policy and competitive dynamics. JNJ spreads risk across two segments and numerous therapeutic areas, generating steadier cash flows but slower top-line growth.
In terms of momentum and relative performance, LLY has delivered superior recent growth, but its forward P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio sits well above the sector average, reflecting higher expectations. JNJ trades at a lower multiple and carries a dividend-focused, more defensive profile. Risk factors differ too: JNJ's near-term overhang is its MedTech underperformance and a potential orthopedics separation, while LLY's is pricing pressure and dependence on a few blockbuster product classes.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, growth catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor LLY in the current environment. The stock's revenue momentum, expanding obesity and diabetes franchise, and visible late-stage pipeline provide a stronger, more consistent catalyst set than JNJ's currently mixed segment performance. That said, LLY's premium valuation and pricing headwinds introduce greater downside sensitivity, while JNJ offers a more stable, diversified profile that may appeal to risk-averse strategies. In probabilistic terms, the AI model would lean toward LLY for growth-oriented positioning while acknowledging JNJ's appeal for stability-focused approaches.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is JNJ is a Hold and LLY is a Buy.
JNJ in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026
JNJ moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 21 of 32 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for JNJ crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where JNJ declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 40%.
The Aroon Indicator for JNJ entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where JNJ's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 11 of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 37%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 25 of 50 cases where JNJ's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 19, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on JNJ as a result. In 42 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Following a +2.83% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where JNJ advanced for three days, in 164 of 354 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 46%.
JNJ may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 62, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. JNJ’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 76 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.198) is normal, around the industry mean (-3.218). P/E Ratio (29.071) is within average values for comparable stocks, (20.770). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.852) is also within normal values, averaging (5.738). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.042) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.658) is also within normal values, averaging (4.033).
LLY in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026
The 10-day moving average for LLY crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on LLY as a result. In 55 of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LLY just turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where LLY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
LLY moved above its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +4.00% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LLY advanced for three days, in 258 of 371 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 220 of 301 cases where LLY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 73%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for LLY moved out of overbought territory on October 19, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 35 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 22 of the 35 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 63%.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LLY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
LLY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 62, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. LLY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 30 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 66 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: LLY's P/B Ratio (32.633) is slightly higher than the industry average of (-3.218). P/E Ratio (41.552) is within average values for comparable stocks, (20.770). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.170) is also within normal values, averaging (5.738). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.042) among similar stocks. LLY's P/S Ratio (12.804) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (4.033).
JNJ | LLY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 60 | 41 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 76 Overvalued | 85 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 8 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 37 | 14 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 23 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 8 | 66 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 30 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
JNJ's Valuation (76) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as LLY (85). This means that JNJ’s stock grew similarly to LLY’s over the last 12 months.
JNJ's Profit vs Risk Rating (5) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as LLY (8). This means that JNJ’s stock grew similarly to LLY’s over the last 12 months.
LLY's SMR Rating (14) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as JNJ (37). This means that LLY’s stock grew similarly to JNJ’s over the last 12 months.
LLY's Price Growth Rating (23) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as JNJ (47). This means that LLY’s stock grew similarly to JNJ’s over the last 12 months.
JNJ's P/E Growth Rating (8) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LLY (66). This means that JNJ’s stock grew somewhat faster than LLY’s over the last 12 months.
| JNJ | LLY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 37% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 40% | 1 day ago 69% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 46% | 5 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 40% | 19 days ago 55% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 50% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 41% | 1 day ago 73% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
JNJ’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while LLY’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- JNJ’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- LLY’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
JNJ’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LLY’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- JNJ’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- LLY’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
JNJ (@Pharmaceuticals: Major) experienced а -3.77% price change this week, while LLY (@Pharmaceuticals: Major) price change was +4.88% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Pharmaceuticals: Major industry was +2.89%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.15%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.11%.
Reported Earning Dates
JNJ is expected to report earnings on Jan 26, 2027.
LLY is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Pharmaceuticals: Major (+2.89% weekly)The Major Pharmaceuticals industry includes companies that are involved in various processes of creating drugs to treat/prevent diseases. These companies engage in research, testing and manufacturing, as well as the distribution of pharmaceuticals into markets. Johnson & Johnson, Merck & Co., Inc., Pfizer Inc. and Novartis are among the largest companies in this category.
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JNJ and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, JNJ has been loosely correlated with ABBV. These tickers have moved in lockstep 51% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if JNJ jumps, then ABBV could also see price increases.
LLY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LLY has been loosely correlated with JNJ. These tickers have moved in lockstep 44% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if LLY jumps, then JNJ could also see price increases.