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KGC vs NEM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) vs. Newmont Corporation (NEM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- KGC and NEM are both senior gold miners, but they differ sharply in scale, cost profile, and geographic diversification.
- NEM is the world's largest gold producer by output, while KGC runs a smaller, mid-tier portfolio anchored by two flagship mines.
- Recent weeks have favored NEM, which posted record free cash flow, even as its production is declining from divestments.
- KGC has trimmed its near-term production guidance and raised its all-in sustaining cost outlook, pressuring relative momentum.
- Both names carry elevated sensitivity to gold prices, higher costs, and operational execution risk, making trend consistency a key differentiator.
Introduction
Gold equities have been a focal point for investors as bullion prices remain historically elevated, and few comparisons better illustrate the range of opportunity and risk in the sector than Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) versus Newmont Corporation (NEM). One is a Canadian mid-tier producer, the other a global mega-cap, yet both generate the bulk of their earnings from a single commodity. This stock comparison is relevant to traders evaluating relative performance and market positioning, as well as to longer-horizon investors weighing diversification, cost efficiency, and capital returns. Understanding where the two diverge can help frame which profile better suits a given strategy in the current environment.
KGC Overview and Recent Performance
Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) is a Toronto-based gold producer with a portfolio split roughly 75% in the Americas and 25% in West Africa. Its two largest operations, Tasiast in Mauritania and Paracatu in Brazil, account for more than half of total production. The company benefited handsomely from the gold rally, delivering record fourth-quarter 2025 margins and full-year free cash flow of about $2.5 billion, which supported buybacks and a dividend increase.
Recent market activity has been more challenging. In recent weeks, KGC reduced its 2026–2027 production outlook to roughly 1.84–1.86 million attributable gold-equivalent ounces, citing extreme weather at La Coipa in Chile and operational issues at Round Mountain in Nevada. It also lifted its 2026 all-in sustaining cost (AISC, the full cost of producing an ounce of gold) guidance to about $1,850–$1,900 per ounce. These revisions, along with a broad gold-sector pullback tied to firmer inflation data, have weighed on the stock, which trades well below its 52-week high. Sentiment has been tempered by margin-compression concerns even as the company raised its shareholder-return target to 50% of free cash flow.
NEM Overview and Recent Performance
Newmont Corporation (NEM) is the world's largest gold miner by production, with a diversified portfolio spanning gold, copper, silver, zinc, and lead across roughly 21 sites in North America, South America, Australia, and Africa. The company has pursued a deliberate non-core divestiture program, which has reduced output but sharpened its focus on tier-one assets.
In recent months, NEM has generated record results. Its first-quarter 2026 report showed record free cash flow of about $3.1 billion, net income of $3.3 billion, and a by-product AISC of roughly $1,029 per ounce, aided by strong silver and copper credits. The company also authorized an additional $6.0 billion share-repurchase program. At the same time, attributable gold production declined about 16% year over year to 1.3 million ounces in the quarter, and 2026 output is guided lower than 2025 levels, with AISC expected to rise. This tension between strong cash generation and shrinking volumes defines the current investment narrative for NEM.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between KGC and NEM is scale and diversification. NEM produces roughly three times the gold of KGC and offsets some gold-price risk with meaningful copper, silver, zinc, and lead by-product revenue. KGC is more concentrated in gold and more exposed to two flagship mines, which amplifies both upside and operational risk.
On cost efficiency, NEM has recently reported materially lower by-product AISC thanks to strong co-product credits, while KGC has been guiding its costs higher. On momentum, NEM has shown comparatively more stable recent performance and stronger relative positioning, whereas KGC has absorbed guidance cuts and a steeper pullback from its highs. Risk profiles differ too: KGC carries geopolitical and weather-related concentration in Chile and West Africa, while NEM faces execution risk tied to its shrinking production base and rising cost outlook.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor NEM in the current environment. Its trend profile has been more consistent, supported by record free cash flow, a stronger balance sheet, and an aggressive capital-return program, while KGC has faced fresher, company-specific headwinds from guidance revisions and cost increases. That said, this is a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive call: both stocks remain tightly linked to gold-price direction, and either could shift in favor depending on upcoming earnings and commodity momentum. Traders should weigh trend stability against valuation and catalyst timing when forming their own view.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KGC is a StrongBuy and NEM is a StrongBuy.
KGC in +5.84% Uptrend, rising for three consecutive days on November 09, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where KGC advanced for three days, in 256 of 324 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where KGC's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 20 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for KGC just turned positive on November 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where KGC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 43 of 57 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
KGC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 10, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on KGC as a result. In 47 of 77 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KGC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The Aroon Indicator for KGC entered a downward trend on November 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 64, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 58 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.733) is normal, around the industry mean (2.121). P/E Ratio (8.424) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-12.498). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.140) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.330) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.967) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. KGC’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
NEM in +4.55% Uptrend, advancing for three consecutive days on November 09, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where NEM advanced for three days, in 249 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 04, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NEM as a result. In 60 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NEM just turned positive on November 04, 2026. Looking at past instances where NEM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 42 of 58 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
NEM moved above its 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for NEM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NEM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
NEM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for NEM entered a downward trend on October 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. NEM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 64, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.615) is normal, around the industry mean (2.121). P/E Ratio (15.190) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-12.498). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.781) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.330) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.144) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
KGC | NEM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 19 | 31 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 58 Fair valued | 93 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 48 | 29 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 28 | 38 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 71 | 25 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 91 | 31 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KGC's Valuation (58) in the Precious Metals industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NEM (93). This means that KGC’s stock grew somewhat faster than NEM’s over the last 12 months.
NEM's Profit vs Risk Rating (29) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as KGC (48). This means that NEM’s stock grew similarly to KGC’s over the last 12 months.
KGC's SMR Rating (28) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as NEM (38). This means that KGC’s stock grew similarly to NEM’s over the last 12 months.
NEM's Price Growth Rating (25) in the Precious Metals industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KGC (71). This means that NEM’s stock grew somewhat faster than KGC’s over the last 12 months.
NEM's P/E Growth Rating (31) in the Precious Metals industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KGC (91). This means that NEM’s stock grew somewhat faster than KGC’s over the last 12 months.
| KGC | NEM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 76% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 78% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 81% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 67% | 13 days ago 66% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 62% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KGC’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while NEM’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- KGC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- NEM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KGC’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NEM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KGC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NEM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
KGC (@Precious Metals) experienced а +8.03% price change this week, while NEM (@Precious Metals) price change was +11.62% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was +1.82%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.54%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7.44%.
Reported Earning Dates
KGC is expected to report earnings on Feb 17, 2027.
NEM is expected to report earnings on Feb 25, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (+1.82% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
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NEM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NEM has been closely correlated with AEM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NEM jumps, then AEM could also see price increases.