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KGC vs WPM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) vs. Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- KGC is a traditional gold producer whose shares have pulled back sharply after it lowered its 2026–2027 production outlook and raised its cost guidance.
- WPM is a precious metals streaming and royalty company that recently posted record quarterly results and completed its largest-ever deal.
- Both stocks are leveraged to gold and silver prices, but their business models, risk profiles, and cost structures differ materially.
- Analyst consensus skews more favorable toward WPM (Strong Buy) than KGC (Buy), reflecting divergent near-term sentiment.
- The comparison highlights the trade-off between a miner's operational execution risk and a streamer's asset-light cash-flow model.
Introduction
Investors seeking exposure to precious metals often weigh two very different paths: owning the companies that physically mine the metal, or owning the companies that finance that production in exchange for future ounces at fixed, discounted prices. Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) and Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM) represent each side of that coin. This stock comparison examines their recent relative performance, market positioning, and the factors that have shaped sentiment in recent weeks. It is most relevant to investors and traders deciding how to allocate within the gold and silver complex while managing exposure to operational, cost, and commodity-price risk.
KGC Overview and Recent Performance
KGC, or Kinross Gold Corporation, is a Canada-based gold miner operating assets in the United States, Brazil, Chile, Canada, and Mauritania. Because it physically extracts and processes ore, its profitability is highly sensitive to production volumes, grades, and all-in sustaining costs (AISC), which measure the full cost of producing each ounce of gold.
Recent market activity has been challenging for the stock. In late September, Kinross trimmed its 2026 and 2027 production guidance to roughly 1.84 million to 1.86 million gold-equivalent ounces, down from a prior target near 2 million, citing adverse weather at La Coipa in Chile and lower mining rates at the Round Mountain asset in Nevada. Management also raised its 2026 AISC forecast to roughly $1,850–$1,900 per ounce, up from $1,730. The company partially offset the weaker outlook by lifting its shareholder-return target to about 50% of free cash flow, supported by buybacks. These developments, combined with periodic sector-wide selling tied to gold-price and interest-rate swings, have weighed on KGC shares, which now trade well below their 52-week high.
WPM Overview and Recent Performance
WPM, or Wheaton Precious Metals Corp., does not operate mines. As a streaming and royalty company, it provides upfront capital to miners in exchange for the right to purchase a portion of future gold, silver, and other metal production at low, fixed prices. This asset-light model generates strong margins when metal prices rise while limiting direct exposure to many operating and capital costs.
In recent weeks, sentiment has been supported by record results and corporate momentum. Wheaton reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of about $901 million, net earnings of roughly $582 million, and operating cash flow near $766 million, all quarterly records. The company also closed a $4.3 billion silver streaming agreement with BHP tied to the Antamina mine in Peru—the largest transaction in its history—and maintained 2026 production guidance of 860,000 to 940,000 gold-equivalent ounces, implying double-digit growth. Analysts have responded with a broadly constructive outlook, with a consensus "Strong Buy" rating. After a strong run, the stock has cooled from its highs but retains a sizable year-over-year gain.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between KGC and WPM is structural. Kinross bears direct operating risk—weather, grades, recoveries, and rising costs—which was on display in its recent guidance cut. Wheaton, by contrast, outsources mining execution to its partners and instead bears counterparty, jurisdictional, and asset-concentration risks, while enjoying a comparatively lower-cost, higher-margin profile.
Growth drivers also differ. KGC is focused on stabilizing near-term output and advancing projects such as Round Mountain's Phase X and the Great Bear development for later this decade. WPM is expanding through acquisitions and new streams, targeting roughly 50% production growth by 2030. On momentum, WPM has carried more positive recent catalysts—record earnings and a landmark deal—while KGC has faced negative revisions. Sector exposure also differs: Wheaton generates meaningful silver revenue alongside gold, whereas Kinross is primarily a gold producer.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors—trend consistency, recent catalysts, earnings momentum, and analyst positioning—Tickeron's AI would more likely favor WPM at present. Wheaton's record financial results, completed landmark transaction, double-digit production growth guidance, and stronger consensus rating suggest a more constructive near-term setup. KGC retains a solid balance sheet, healthy cash flow, and attractive valuation, but its recent guidance reduction and elevated costs introduce execution uncertainty. This view is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting current data rather than a prediction of future prices.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KGC is a StrongBuy and WPM is a StrongBuy.
KGC's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for KGC turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where KGC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 50 of 58 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where KGC's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 19 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Following a +8.00% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KGC advanced for three days, in 261 of 329 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
KGC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 44 of 68 cases where KGC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on KGC as a result. In 48 of 78 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
KGC moved below its 50-day moving average on September 24, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for KGC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 25, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KGC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The Aroon Indicator for KGC entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 40 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 57 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.927) is normal, around the industry mean (1.927). P/E Ratio (9.023) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-15.408). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.140) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.345) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.967) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. KGC’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
WPM in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026
WPM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 36 of 41 cases where WPM's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for WPM's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a +3.55% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WPM advanced for three days, in 249 of 335 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on WPM as a result. In 47 of 80 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
WPM moved below its 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for WPM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WPM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator for WPM entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. WPM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.194) is normal, around the industry mean (1.927). P/E Ratio (29.267) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-15.408). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.400) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.345) among similar stocks. WPM's P/S Ratio (21.053) is slightly higher than the industry average of (7.321).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
KGC | WPM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 66 | 56 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 57 Fair valued | 78 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 41 | 33 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 28 | 41 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 62 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 89 | 87 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 40 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KGC's Valuation (57) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as WPM (78). This means that KGC’s stock grew similarly to WPM’s over the last 12 months.
WPM's Profit vs Risk Rating (33) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as KGC (41). This means that WPM’s stock grew similarly to KGC’s over the last 12 months.
KGC's SMR Rating (28) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as WPM (41). This means that KGC’s stock grew similarly to WPM’s over the last 12 months.
WPM's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as KGC (62). This means that WPM’s stock grew similarly to KGC’s over the last 12 months.
WPM's P/E Growth Rating (87) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as KGC (89). This means that WPM’s stock grew similarly to KGC’s over the last 12 months.
| KGC | WPM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 83% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 59% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 86% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 79% | 7 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 85% | 1 day ago 88% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 61% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KGC’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while WPM’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- KGC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- WPM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KGC’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WPM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KGC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- WPM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
KGC (@Precious Metals) experienced а -4.91% price change this week, while WPM (@Precious Metals) price change was -7.23% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was -5.92%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -20.21%, and the average quarterly price growth was -15.45%.
Reported Earning Dates
KGC is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
WPM is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (-5.92% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
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WPM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WPM has been closely correlated with AEM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 93% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if WPM jumps, then AEM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To WPM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPM | 100% | -6.54% | ||
| AEM - WPM | 93% Closely correlated | -5.98% | ||
| FNV - WPM | 90% Closely correlated | -4.74% | ||
| PAAS - WPM | 90% Closely correlated | -5.91% | ||
| KGC - WPM | 90% Closely correlated | -4.79% | ||
| RGLD - WPM | 90% Closely correlated | -3.01% | ||
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