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LUV vs UAL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Southwest Airlines (LUV) vs. United Airlines (UAL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- LUV trades at a higher trailing P/E ratio of 32.05 compared to UAL’s 10.81, reflecting differences in valuation multiples.
- UAL reported stronger year-over-year earnings growth with a trailing EPS of 10.68 versus LUV’s 1.50.
- Year-to-date returns favor LUV at 17.34% against UAL’s 3.21% as of mid-July 2026.
- UAL posted robust Q2 2026 revenue of $17.67 billion, while LUV prepares for its Q2 earnings release later in July.
- Both carriers face sector-wide pressures including fuel costs, with UAL highlighting potential $6 billion in added 2026 expenses.
- Market capitalizations stand at approximately $23.5 billion for LUV and $37.5 billion for UAL.
Introduction
This comparison examines LUV (Southwest Airlines Co.) and UAL (United Airlines Holdings, Inc.), two major U.S. carriers operating in the passenger airline industry. Both companies provide scheduled air transportation services domestically and internationally, yet they differ in network scale, fleet strategies, and financial profiles. The analysis focuses on recent market activity, relative performance, and key operational factors. Investors and traders seeking to understand positioning within the airline sector, including those evaluating low-cost versus full-service models, may find this side-by-side review relevant for assessing competitive dynamics and market sentiment.
LUV Overview and Recent Performance
Southwest Airlines Co. operates as a low-cost carrier serving 117 destinations primarily across the United States with an all-Boeing 737 fleet of 803 aircraft as of late 2025. In recent market activity, the stock has shown resilience with a year-to-date return of 17.34% and a one-year return of 34.31% as of July 17, 2026. The shares closed at 48.08, down 2.73% on the session, within a 52-week range of 28.98 to 55.11. Recent developments include international expansion through new partnerships and preparations for Q2 earnings scheduled for July 22, 2026. Sentiment has been influenced by mixed analyst views on valuation amid rising sector cash balances and the company’s ongoing transformation plan. Trailing twelve-month revenue reached 28.88 billion with a profit margin of 2.83%.
UAL Overview and Recent Performance
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. provides air transportation across the United States, Canada, Atlantic, Pacific, and Latin America through its mainline and regional operations. The stock closed at 115.41 on July 17, 2026, down 2.86%, with a market capitalization of 37.46 billion and a 52-week range of 82.42 to 138.77. Year-to-date performance stood at 3.21%, while the one-year return reached 26.52%. Recent highlights include a strong Q2 2026 report with revenue of 17.67 billion and adjusted EPS of 1.99, beating estimates. The company is advocating for a 20 billion air traffic control modernization package while noting rising fuel costs that could add nearly 6 billion to 2026 expenses. Trailing twelve-month revenue totaled 62.9 billion with a profit margin of 5.56%.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
LUV follows a point-to-point, low-cost model with a single aircraft type, supporting higher operational simplicity but potentially limiting long-haul flexibility compared to UAL’s hub-and-spoke network spanning multiple continents. Growth drivers for LUV center on domestic expansion and ancillary revenue initiatives, while UAL benefits from international routes and cargo operations that contributed to a 23% cargo revenue increase in recent periods. Recent momentum shows LUV outperforming on a year-to-date basis amid earnings anticipation, whereas UAL demonstrated stronger quarterly revenue scale and EPS delivery. Risk factors include fuel price volatility for both, with UAL explicitly quantifying exposure; LUV carries lower debt-to-equity at 93% versus UAL’s 201.64%. Sector exposure remains identical as U.S. airlines, though market sentiment reflects differing valuation multiples and analyst target spreads.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as earnings consistency, revenue scale, and valuation positioning in recent market activity, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a higher probabilistic preference to UAL. The carrier’s lower trailing P/E, higher EPS delivery, and broader network diversification provide relative stability and catalyst visibility compared to LUV’s elevated multiple and upcoming earnings event. This assessment reflects trend consistency and relative positioning without definitive forecasts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is LUV is a Hold and UAL is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
LUV’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileUAL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- LUV’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- UAL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
LUV’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UAL’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- LUV’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- UAL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
LUV (@Airlines) experienced а -6.24% price change this week, while UAL (@Airlines) price change was +2.48% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Airlines industry was -1.15%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -12.04%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.44%.
Reported Earning Dates
LUV is expected to report earnings on Oct 21, 2026.
UAL is expected to report earnings on Oct 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Airlines (-1.15% weekly)Airlines industry comprises passenger air transportation, including scheduled and non-scheduled routes. This can include charter airlines, as well as regular commuter ones. Discount pricing and the rise of low-cost carriers over recent decades have expanded the industry by making its services accessible to a much larger global population, compared to the older days when airline travel was a relative luxury for many people in the world. Delta Air Lines Inc., Southwest Airlines Co and United Continental Holdings, Inc. are some of the airlines with the largest stock market capitalizations in the U.S.
| LUV | UAL | LUV / UAL | |
| Capitalization | 22.1B | 38.4B | 58% |
| EBITDA | 2.72B | 5.83B | 47% |
| Gain YTD | 10.023 | 5.768 | 174% |
| P/E Ratio | 28.18 | 11.07 | 254% |
| Revenue | 28.9B | 60.5B | 48% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 14.2B | - |
| Total Debt | 6.4B | 31B | 21% |
LUV | UAL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 59 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 23 Undervalued | 81 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 42 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 72 | 37 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 92 | 29 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
LUV's Valuation (23) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for UAL (81). This means that LUV’s stock grew somewhat faster than UAL’s over the last 12 months.
UAL's Profit vs Risk Rating (42) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LUV (100). This means that UAL’s stock grew somewhat faster than LUV’s over the last 12 months.
UAL's SMR Rating (37) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LUV (72). This means that UAL’s stock grew somewhat faster than LUV’s over the last 12 months.
UAL's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as LUV (48). This means that UAL’s stock grew similarly to LUV’s over the last 12 months.
UAL's P/E Growth Rating (29) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LUV (92). This means that UAL’s stock grew somewhat faster than LUV’s over the last 12 months.
| LUV | UAL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 78% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 81% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 72% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 76% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 81% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 72% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 71% | 6 days ago 76% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 76% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 67% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 77% |
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LUV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LUV has been closely correlated with DAL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LUV jumps, then DAL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To LUV | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUV | 100% | +0.83% | ||
| DAL - LUV | 71% Closely correlated | +3.77% | ||
| AAL - LUV | 70% Closely correlated | +6.79% | ||
| ALK - LUV | 69% Closely correlated | +3.08% | ||
| ULCC - LUV | 55% Loosely correlated | +5.64% | ||
| RYAAY - LUV | 53% Loosely correlated | +0.89% | ||
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UAL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UAL has been closely correlated with AAL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 81% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UAL jumps, then AAL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UAL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAL | 100% | +2.54% | ||
| AAL - UAL | 81% Closely correlated | +6.79% | ||
| ALGT - UAL | 74% Closely correlated | +3.81% | ||
| SKYW - UAL | 73% Closely correlated | +7.70% | ||
| LUV - UAL | 66% Closely correlated | +0.83% | ||
| JBLU - UAL | 66% Loosely correlated | +5.61% | ||
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