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LUV vs UAL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Southwest Airlines (LUV) vs. United Airlines Holdings (UAL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both LUV and UAL shares have risen around 5% over the recent month, buoyed by easing oil prices and improved sector sentiment.
- LUV has outperformed year-to-date with a 1.2% gain compared to UAL's 11.6% decline, reflecting relative stability in its low-cost model.
- UAL boasts a lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 9.7 versus LUV's 53, indicating a cheaper valuation relative to earnings.
- Upcoming first-quarter earnings reports are pivotal, with analysts forecasting revenue growth for both amid jet fuel volatility.
- UAL benefits from international exposure and premium services, while LUV emphasizes domestic efficiency.
Introduction
Southwest Airlines (LUV) and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) represent contrasting approaches within the U.S. airline industry: a low-cost, domestic-focused carrier versus a global network operator with premium offerings. This comparison is particularly relevant for traders and investors navigating volatile fuel costs, fluctuating travel demand, and sector-wide capacity adjustments. With recent market activity influenced by geopolitical tensions and oil price swings, understanding their relative performance, valuations, and catalysts aids in assessing positioning amid broader transportation sector dynamics.
LUV Overview and Recent Performance
Southwest Airlines (LUV) operates a point-to-point low-cost model emphasizing short-haul domestic flights, known for operational efficiency and customer loyalty programs. In recent market activity, shares have climbed about 5% over the past month, supported by easing crude oil prices following Strait of Hormuz developments and positive sector sentiment. Year-to-date, LUV has gained 1.2%, trading near $42 with a market cap of $20.5 billion. Key influences include anticipation for Q1 earnings, projecting 12.3% revenue growth to $7.22 billion despite EPS estimate cuts, alongside initiatives to enhance digital experiences and loyalty perks. High PE ratio of 53 reflects compressed earnings per share (EPS) of $0.79, but analysts highlight a potential turnaround amid capacity discipline.
UAL Overview and Recent Performance
United Airlines Holdings (UAL) runs a hub-and-spoke network with significant international routes and premium cabin focus, driving higher yields. Shares have advanced roughly 5.7% in the recent month amid similar oil price relief, though year-to-date performance stands at -11.6%, with the stock around $99 and a $32.1 billion market cap. Recent sentiment shifts stem from Q1 earnings expectations of $14.45 billion revenue and $1.09 adjusted EPS, tempered by jet fuel surges and rejected merger talks with American Airlines. Capacity cuts in response to costs and geopolitical factors have pressured margins, yet strong EPS of $10.20 and low PE of 9.7 underscore profitability. Analyst targets average $130, signaling upside potential.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
LUV and UAL diverge in business models: LUV's low-cost, no-frills domestic network offers resilience to economic slowdowns via flexible capacity, while UAL's international premium routes provide growth from high-margin long-haul travel but heighten exposure to fuel volatility and forex risks. Recent momentum favors LUV on YTD stability, yet UAL edges in profitability with superior EPS and ROE near 24%. Risk factors include shared sensitivity to jet fuel (beta 1.18 for LUV, 1.29 for UAL) and demand cycles, though LUV pays a 1.72% dividend yield absent in UAL. Market sentiment leans toward UAL for catalysts like premium recovery, contrasting LUV's operational efficiencies.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently leans toward UAL due to its attractive valuation, robust earnings profile, and greater upside in analyst targets amid international travel trends and capacity management. While LUV shows steadier recent momentum and domestic focus, UAL's trend consistency and catalysts position it favorably in probabilistic terms under prevailing fuel stabilization.
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To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is LUV is a Buy and UAL is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
LUV’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileUAL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- LUV’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- UAL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
LUV’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UAL’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- LUV’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 3 bearish.
- UAL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
LUV (@Airlines) experienced а +1.96% price change this week, while UAL (@Airlines) price change was +0.74% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Airlines industry was -0.23%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.14%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.63%.
Reported Earning Dates
LUV is expected to report earnings on Jul 22, 2026.
UAL is expected to report earnings on Jul 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Airlines (-0.23% weekly)Airlines industry comprises passenger air transportation, including scheduled and non-scheduled routes. This can include charter airlines, as well as regular commuter ones. Discount pricing and the rise of low-cost carriers over recent decades have expanded the industry by making its services accessible to a much larger global population, compared to the older days when airline travel was a relative luxury for many people in the world. Delta Air Lines Inc., Southwest Airlines Co and United Continental Holdings, Inc. are some of the airlines with the largest stock market capitalizations in the U.S.
| LUV | UAL | LUV / UAL | |
| Capitalization | 21.1B | 35.6B | 59% |
| EBITDA | 2.72B | 5.83B | 47% |
| Gain YTD | 4.903 | -1.959 | -250% |
| P/E Ratio | 28.78 | 9.81 | 293% |
| Revenue | 28.9B | 60.5B | 48% |
| Total Cash | 3.33B | 14.2B | 23% |
| Total Debt | 6.4B | 31B | 21% |
LUV | UAL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 10 | 19 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 24 Undervalued | 82 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 45 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 76 | 29 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
LUV's Valuation (24) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for UAL (82). This means that LUV’s stock grew somewhat faster than UAL’s over the last 12 months.
UAL's Profit vs Risk Rating (45) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LUV (100). This means that UAL’s stock grew somewhat faster than LUV’s over the last 12 months.
UAL's SMR Rating (100) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as LUV (100). This means that UAL’s stock grew similarly to LUV’s over the last 12 months.
UAL's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as LUV (50). This means that UAL’s stock grew similarly to LUV’s over the last 12 months.
UAL's P/E Growth Rating (29) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LUV (76). This means that UAL’s stock grew somewhat faster than LUV’s over the last 12 months.
| LUV | UAL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 86% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 84% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 80% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 81% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 70% | 14 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 75% | 7 days ago 77% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 79% |
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LUV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LUV has been closely correlated with AAL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LUV jumps, then AAL could also see price increases.
UAL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UAL has been closely correlated with DAL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UAL jumps, then DAL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UAL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAL | 100% | +4.09% | ||
| DAL - UAL | 89% Closely correlated | +3.78% | ||
| AAL - UAL | 82% Closely correlated | +3.60% | ||
| SKYW - UAL | 77% Closely correlated | +5.07% | ||
| ALK - UAL | 76% Closely correlated | +6.84% | ||
| ALGT - UAL | 71% Closely correlated | +5.32% | ||
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