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MGY vs TPL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) vs. Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MGY, an independent oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) company focused on the Eagle Ford Shale, has delivered strong YTD returns of approximately 39%, outperforming the broader market amid favorable oil prices.
- TPL, a land and resource manager in the Permian Basin with royalty and water services, shows YTD gains around 32% but experienced a sharp recent drop following the passing of a key board member.
- Both stocks benefit from energy sector momentum, with MGY exhibiting steadier recent analyst upgrades and TPL boasting higher margins from its asset-light royalty model.
- MGY trades at a lower multiple with a higher dividend yield (2.06%) compared to TPL's 0.54%, appealing to income-focused investors.
- Recent volatility in oil prices and sector rotations have influenced relative performance, with MGY showing resilience near 52-week highs.
- Tickeron's AI tools highlight potential in energy plays, with trending bots posting annualized returns up to 227% in relevant sectors.
Introduction
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) and Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) represent distinct approaches within the oil and gas sector, with MGY focused on active exploration and production and TPL leveraging land royalties and services. This comparison is particularly relevant for energy sector traders and investors navigating recent oil price rallies, geopolitical shifts, and Permian Basin dynamics. Both have outperformed the S&P 500 year-to-date, offering insights into relative performance, risk profiles, and market positioning amid volatile commodity cycles. Understanding their contrasts aids in portfolio allocation for growth-oriented or income-seeking strategies.
MGY Overview and Recent Performance
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) is an independent E&P company engaged in acquiring, developing, exploring, and producing oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids, primarily in South Texas' Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk. In recent market activity, MGY has shown robust momentum, with shares trading around $30, near the upper end of its 52-week range of $19.38–$32.76. Year-to-date returns stand at about 39%, surpassing the S&P 500, driven by elevated oil prices and strong production metrics.
Sentiment has been bolstered by multiple analyst upgrades, including raised price targets to $32–$38 from firms like KeyBanc, Citi, and Mizuho, reflecting optimism on reserves and cash flow generation. Recent weeks saw shares rally on commodity strength, though a Roth Capital downgrade to Neutral cited potential oil price peaks. Key influences include Q4 earnings beats and scheduled Q1 results, underscoring operational efficiency in a high-beta energy environment (beta 0.83).
TPL Overview and Recent Performance
Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) manages extensive land holdings and resources in West Texas, generating revenue from oil and gas royalties, water services, and operations, primarily in the Permian Basin. Shares recently traded around $378, within a 52-week range of $269–$547, following a significant pullback. Year-to-date performance approximates 32%, outpacing the market, supported by record 2025 revenues of $798 million and strong free cash flow.
Recent market activity brought volatility, with a sharp 15–16% decline after the announcement of board member Murray Stahl's passing, overshadowing prior gains from strategic moves like data center pursuits and Q4 production records. Analyst sentiment remains positive, with targets averaging $446 (high $639 from KeyBanc), fueled by high margins (over 60%) and low beta (0.77). Influences include robust royalty volumes and diversification beyond traditional E&P.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots page showcases the platform's top-performing AI trading bots, curated from hundreds available that trade thousands of tickers across diverse strategies, timeframes, and styles. Only those demonstrating superior adaptability to current market conditions—such as momentum in energy, tech, and semis—earn a spot in this dynamic section. Featured bots display impressive stats, including annualized returns up to 227%, win rates of 70–80%, and profit factors reaching 3.0+, with some achieving 100% profitable trades in short bursts. For instance, top agents have posted 30-day annualized gains over 170% via price action and sector rotation. These neural network-driven tools offer transparent backtests and live tracking, catering to various risk appetites. Explore Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots to identify bots suited to energy sector plays like MGY and TPL.
Head-to-Head Comparison
MGY and TPL operate in complementary energy niches: MGY's hands-on E&P model drives growth through drilling in Eagle Ford, contrasting TPL's passive royalty and water services yielding higher margins (60%+ net) with minimal capex. Growth drivers differ—MGY leverages production ramps and acquisitions, while TPL benefits from Permian lessee activity and emerging data center revenue.
Recent momentum favors MGY's steadier climb near highs, versus TPL's volatility post-event. Risk profiles highlight TPL's lower beta (0.77 vs. 0.83) and asset-light structure reducing operational risks, though both face commodity exposure. Sector ties are Permian-adjacent for TPL and Eagle Ford for MGY, with market sentiment lifted by oil rallies but tempered by peak-price concerns. Trade-offs include MGY's superior dividend (2.06% yield) and valuation appeal versus TPL's premium multiples and diversification potential.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI analysis currently leans toward MGY for its consistent trend strength, positive analyst revisions, and relative stability amid recent energy momentum. Factors like superior YTD performance, higher yield, and resilience near peaks position it probabilistically better for near-term upside, though TPL's high-margin royalty model offers long-term appeal if volatility subsides. This assessment draws from observable trends, not guarantees.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MGY is a Hold and TPL is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MGY’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileTPL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MGY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TPL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MGY’s TA Score shows that 2 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TPL’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MGY’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 6 bearish.
- TPL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
MGY (@Oil & Gas Production) experienced а -1.42% price change this week, while TPL (@Oil & Gas Production) price change was -7.17% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil & Gas Production industry was +3.65%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -8.75%, and the average quarterly price growth was +18.18%.
Reported Earning Dates
MGY is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
TPL is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil & Gas Production (+3.65% weekly)The oil and gas production segment includes companies that specialize in exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. These companies are focused on upstream operations. Companies typically identify deposits, drill wells, and extract raw materials from underground. The industry also includes related services like rig operations, feasibility studies, machinery rentals etc. Several operators in this industry work with various types of contractors such as engineering procurement and construction contractors, as well as with joint-venture partners and oil field service companies. Oil and gas often involves large fixed costs of production; so, declining crude oil prices, for example, is a potential negative for this industry. Conoco Phillips, EOG Resources, Inc. and Pioneer Natural Resources Company are some examples of companies operating in this space.
| MGY | TPL | MGY / TPL | |
| Capitalization | 5.17B | 25.4B | 20% |
| EBITDA | 875M | 706M | 124% |
| Gain YTD | 28.292 | 29.452 | 96% |
| P/E Ratio | 16.16 | 50.87 | 32% |
| Revenue | 1.32B | 839M | 157% |
| Total Cash | 96.7M | 328K | 29,482% |
| Total Debt | 411M | 15.8M | 2,601% |
MGY | TPL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 68 | 56 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 39 Fair valued | 89 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 29 | 58 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 55 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 63 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 21 | 59 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 55 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MGY's Valuation (39) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TPL (89) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry. This means that MGY’s stock grew somewhat faster than TPL’s over the last 12 months.
MGY's Profit vs Risk Rating (29) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as TPL (58) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry. This means that MGY’s stock grew similarly to TPL’s over the last 12 months.
TPL's SMR Rating (26) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry is in the same range as MGY (55) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that TPL’s stock grew similarly to MGY’s over the last 12 months.
MGY's Price Growth Rating (50) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as TPL (63) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry. This means that MGY’s stock grew similarly to TPL’s over the last 12 months.
MGY's P/E Growth Rating (21) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TPL (59) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry. This means that MGY’s stock grew somewhat faster than TPL’s over the last 12 months.
| MGY | TPL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 52% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 76% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 76% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 15 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 76% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 71% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 72% | N/A |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| MLN | 17.64 | 0.07 | +0.43% |
| VanEck Long Muni ETF | |||
| ONOF | 40.66 | 0.11 | +0.28% |
| Global X Adaptive US Risk Management ETF | |||
| BSJX | 25.22 | 0.03 | +0.14% |
| Invesco BulletShares 2033 Hi YldCrpBdETF | |||
| JHDV | 46.51 | N/A | N/A |
| JHancock U.S. High Dividend ETF | |||
| IWY | 300.88 | -1.28 | -0.42% |
| iShares Russell Top 200 Growth ETF | |||
TPL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TPL has been loosely correlated with NOG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 45% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TPL jumps, then NOG could also see price increases.