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MTUM vs QQQ
Which Stock Would AI Choose? iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) vs. Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MTUM is a momentum-factor ETF (exchange-traded fund) that targets U.S. large- and mid-cap stocks with strong recent price trends, while QQQ is a broad technology-heavy ETF tracking the Nasdaq-100 Index.
- Both funds are highly exposed to technology, but QQQ carries greater concentration risk in a handful of mega-cap names such as Nvidia, Apple, and Micron.
- Recent market activity has been more challenging for QQQ, which logged its worst month since early 2025 amid an earnings-driven technology selloff.
- MTUM has shown steadier relative performance, supported by its diversified, factor-based selection across multiple sectors.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: On current observable trends, Tickeron's AI would favor MTUM for its more consistent momentum and lower single-stock concentration.
- For more detail, explore MTUM Major News and MTUM Today's Price Move, or QQQ Major News and QQQ Today's Price Move.
- To see which strategies are performing best right now, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines two widely held ETFs that attract different kinds of investors: the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ). While QQQ offers broad exposure to the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq, MTUM pursues stocks exhibiting strong relative momentum across the broader U.S. equity market. Traders evaluating growth-versus-momentum positioning, sector concentration, and risk-adjusted performance may find this comparison useful. Understanding how these funds behave in a shifting market environment—one currently marked by volatility in technology shares—can help investors assess market positioning and relative performance before committing capital.
MTUM Overview and Recent Performance
Managed by BlackRock, MTUM is the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF. It tracks an index that selects large- and mid-cap U.S. stocks with relatively higher price momentum than the broader MSCI USA Index, rebalancing periodically to capture sustained uptrends. The fund holds roughly 129 securities and carries a low expense ratio of 0.15%.
In recent market activity, MTUM has benefited from strength in semiconductors, AI-related infrastructure, and select industrials, while software names have weighed on returns. For the year ended July 31, 2026, the fund returned approximately 25.06%, outpacing the broader MSCI USA Index. Over the trailing one-year period, its performance has remained robust, and it has continued to deliver competitive three- and five-year results. Its diversification beyond the mega-cap technology complex has helped moderate drawdowns during periods of sector-specific weakness, supporting relatively consistent trend behavior.
QQQ Overview and Recent Performance
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) is one of the most actively traded ETFs in the world, tracking the Nasdaq-100 Index of 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange. Its expense ratio is 0.20%. The fund is heavily weighted toward technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary, with its top holdings historically concentrated in names such as Nvidia, Apple, and Micron.
Recent weeks have been turbulent for QQQ. The fund declined roughly 6.7% in October, its worst monthly performance since March 2025, as an earnings-driven technology selloff and concerns about the pace of return on AI spending pressured mega-cap shares. A sharp drop in Intel after its guidance and broader weakness in chipmakers contributed to the decline. The Nasdaq-100 briefly traded about 10% below its record close intraday before recovering, leaving it near—but not officially in—correction territory on a closing basis. QQQ's 50-day simple moving average has recently sat above its price, reflecting short-term technical pressure.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page showcases a curated selection of AI trading bots chosen for their suitability to current market conditions. Tickeron offers hundreds of AI-powered trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, each operating with distinct trading styles, strategies, timeframes, performance statistics, and watchlists. Because no single bot fits every market regime, the Trending AI Robots section highlights only the strategies currently demonstrating the strongest alignment with prevailing trends and volatility. This screening approach helps traders filter a large universe of automated strategies down to a focused, actionable shortlist. Explore the Trending AI Robots page to review the latest performance data and identify strategies that match your trading objectives.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The most important contrast between these two funds is their underlying approach. QQQ is an index-based, market-cap-weighted fund whose returns are dominated by a small number of technology giants; this concentration amplifies both upside and downside when sentiment toward mega-cap growth shifts. MTUM, by contrast, applies a momentum screen that can rotate holdings across sectors, reducing single-stock risk while still capturing growth-oriented leadership.
On relative performance, MTUM's momentum methodology has shown greater stability during recent technology-driven volatility, whereas QQQ's concentration made it more vulnerable to the October selloff. In terms of sector exposure, QQQ is almost exclusively growth- and technology-oriented, while MTUM spans a wider array of industries. Risk factors differ accordingly: QQQ faces concentration and valuation-compression risk tied to AI spending expectations, while MTUM faces turnover and factor-rotation risk if momentum leadership reverses. Market sentiment recently favored diversified momentum over pure technology exposure, a shift reflected in the two funds' diverging recent trajectories.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, sector concentration, and recent relative performance, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward MTUM over QQQ. MTUM's momentum-driven, more diversified construction has demonstrated steadier price behavior during a period when technology mega-caps came under pressure, and its recent relative strength suggests more durable trend characteristics. QQQ remains a powerful vehicle for broad technology exposure, but its elevated concentration and recent underperformance introduce higher short-term uncertainty. The verdict is probabilistic rather than absolute, reflecting current market conditions rather than a fixed long-term judgment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MTUM is a Hold and QQQ is a Hold.
MTUM sees MACD Histogram just turned negative
MTUM saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on October 12, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 44 of the 51 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MTUM as a result. In 75 of 89 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
MTUM moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MTUM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTUM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
The Aroon Indicator for MTUM entered a downward trend on November 03, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MTUM's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 27 of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +3.03% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTUM advanced for three days, in 289 of 353 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
MTUM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
QQQ in downward trend: 10-day moving average moved below 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026
The 10-day moving average for QQQ crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on QQQ as a result. In 70 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for QQQ turned negative on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 34 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 74%.
QQQ moved below its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where QQQ declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
The Aroon Indicator for QQQ entered a downward trend on November 03, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where QQQ's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 22 of 26 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +1.88% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where QQQ advanced for three days, in 310 of 365 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
QQQ may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
| MTUM | QQQ | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 85% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 86% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 83% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 86% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 81% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 86% | 2 days ago 85% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 82% | 8 days ago 85% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 81% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 85% |
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MTUM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTUM has been closely correlated with NVT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTUM jumps, then NVT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MTUM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTUM | 100% | +1.16% | ||
| NVT - MTUM | 78% Closely correlated | +4.49% | ||
| FIX - MTUM | 77% Closely correlated | +7.08% | ||
| Q - MTUM | 77% Closely correlated | +3.05% | ||
| GLW - MTUM | 76% Closely correlated | +2.39% | ||
| COHR - MTUM | 74% Closely correlated | +3.77% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| AAUS | 60.53 | 0.27 | +0.45% |
| Alpha Architect US Equity ETF (AAUS) | |||
| BDIV | 25.12 | N/A | N/A |
| AAM Brentview Dividend Growth ETF (BDIV) | |||
| XHE | 92.50 | -0.13 | -0.14% |
| State Street SPDR S&P Health Care Equipment ETF (XHE) | |||
| DEM | 52.55 | -0.16 | -0.30% |
| WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Fund (DEM) | |||
| FDFF | 35.82 | -0.30 | -0.83% |
| Fidelity Disruptive Finance ETF (FDFF) | |||