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NBTB vs SRCE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? NBT Bancorp (NBTB) vs. 1st Source Corporation (SRCE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- NBT Bancorp (NBTB) is a $2.73 billion regional bank expanding through M&A (mergers and acquisitions), recently integrating the Evans Bancorp acquisition to deepen its Northeastern U.S. footprint.
- 1st Source Corporation (SRCE) is a $2.17 billion Indiana-based bank with a 33-year streak of consecutive dividend increases and a differentiated business model that includes specialized lending verticals and wealth management.
- Both banks posted strong second-quarter 2026 results, but SRCE delivered a considerably larger earnings surprise — beating consensus EPS (earnings per share) estimates by $0.24 — while NBTB narrowly missed expectations.
- SRCE has substantially outperformed on a year-to-date and one-year basis, posting a 46% YTD gain versus approximately 26% for NBTB, though both have outpaced broader market benchmarks.
- Valuation profiles differ meaningfully: SRCE commands a higher absolute share price but trades at a lower P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio of roughly 12.7x compared to NBTB's approximately 13.1x, despite superior profitability metrics.
Introduction
Regional banks remain a focal point for investors seeking exposure to Main Street economic activity without the complexity of money-center giants. This comparison examines two well-established regional banking franchises — NBTB (NBT Bancorp Inc.) and SRCE (1st Source Corporation) — that operate in distinct geographies yet compete for similar investor attention. Both institutions have demonstrated resilient earnings power, multi-year dividend growth streaks, and disciplined credit cultures through the recent rate cycle. With second-quarter 2026 results now available for both names, the relative positioning of each stock offers a timely lens for traders and long-term investors evaluating the regional banking space. This article breaks down how the two compare across business models, recent performance, and the signals that quantitative AI-driven analysis might prioritize.
NBTB Overview and Recent Performance
NBTB, headquartered in Norwich, New York, operates NBT Bank — a full-service commercial bank serving individuals and businesses across the Northeastern United States. The company also provides wealth management and trust services. In recent quarters, the defining corporate event has been the integration of Evans Bancorp, acquired in May 2025, which added approximately $1.67 billion in loans, $1.86 billion in deposits, and 18 banking locations in Western New York. The deal has materially expanded NBTB's balance sheet and market reach.
Second-quarter 2026 results, reported in late July, showed net income of $53.0 million and diluted EPS of $1.02, with operating EPS of $1.01 — slightly below the consensus estimate of $1.02. Revenue reached $186.69 million. The net interest margin (NIM) — a key measure of lending profitability — improved to 3.73%, reflecting six consecutive quarters of expansion. Tangible book value per share rose to $27.71, up 12.8% year-over-year. The board also approved an 8.1% dividend increase to $0.40 per share, marking the fourteenth consecutive year of dividend growth. Loan growth of $276 million across commercial and consumer portfolios since year-end 2025 underscores broadening origination momentum, though credit quality remains a focal point, with the loan loss provision rising to $6.1 million and reserves at 1.18% of total loans.
SRCE Overview and Recent Performance
SRCE, based in South Bend, Indiana, is the holding company for 1st Source Bank and operates primarily across northern Indiana and southwestern Michigan. The franchise differentiates itself through specialized lending verticals — including agribusiness and equipment finance — alongside a well-established wealth management division. Unlike NBTB's acquisition-driven expansion model, SRCE has leaned toward organic balance sheet growth and operational consistency.
The company's second-quarter 2026 results, released on July 23, meaningfully exceeded analyst expectations. EPS came in at $1.95, a $0.24 beat over the $1.71 consensus, while revenue of $118.16 million also topped estimates. The bank posted a return on assets (ROA) of approximately 2.0% for the quarter — an exceptional figure in regional banking — and reported a net margin of 26.66%. Piper Sandler subsequently raised its price target on SRCE from $88 to $100, citing the company's organic growth outlook, net interest margin resilience, and above-average capital returns. The company holds a 33-year record of consecutive annual dividend increases, recently raising the quarterly payout to $0.43 per share. Institutional ownership stands at approximately 74.45%, reflecting strong professional investor conviction.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
While both NBTB and SRCE are well-managed regional banks, their strategic identities diverge in instructive ways. NBTB is in an active post-M&A integration phase, with the Evans deal reshaping its deposit base and loan portfolio — a strategy that introduces near-term execution risk but also unlocks potential for scale-driven efficiency gains. SRCE, in contrast, has pursued a more internally generated growth path, emphasizing specialized lending niches and wealth management — a model that tends to produce steadier, higher-quality earnings streams.
On profitability metrics, SRCE holds a clear edge: its Q2 2026 ROA of roughly 2.0% nearly doubles the industry average and substantially exceeds NBTB's operating ROAA (return on average assets) of 1.32%. Net margin at SRCE (26.66%) also runs well above NBTB's 19.59%. Yet NBTB offers investors a richer dividend yield of approximately 3.0% versus SRCE's 2.1%, which may appeal to income-oriented portfolios.
Price momentum and market sentiment present another differentiator. SRCE has delivered a year-to-date return of roughly 46% and a one-year return exceeding 50%, significantly outpacing NBTB's ~26% YTD and ~30% one-year gains. Both stocks carry low beta — 0.48 for NBTB and 0.58 for SRCE — indicating relatively muted sensitivity to broad market swings, though SRCE's higher absolute share price near $90 may affect retail investor accessibility compared to NBTB's mid-$50s range. From a credit risk standpoint, both banks maintain healthy CET1 (Common Equity Tier 1) ratios above 12%, signaling robust capital cushions, though NBTB's ongoing acquisition integration adds a layer of operational complexity not present at SRCE.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency, earnings momentum, profitability metrics, and relative market positioning, Tickeron's AI-driven analysis would likely express a near-term preference for SRCE over NBTB. The rationale centers on SRCE's superior earnings surprise magnitude in the most recent quarter, its substantially higher ROA and net margin profile, and the stock's stronger price momentum across multiple timeframes. The clean organic growth narrative and absence of acquisition-related integration risk also contribute to a more stable catalyst environment. However, this probabilistic assessment is not absolute: NBTB's higher dividend yield and the potential for M&A-driven synergy realization to exceed current expectations could shift relative attractiveness over a longer observation window. AI models evaluate these trade-offs continuously, and the balance of factors can evolve as new data emerges.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NBTB is a Hold and SRCE is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NBTB’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileSRCE’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- NBTB’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- SRCE’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NBTB’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SRCE’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NBTB’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- SRCE’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
NBTB (@Regional Banks) experienced а +0.52% price change this week, while SRCE (@Regional Banks) price change was +4.54% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +1.19%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.68%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.65%.
Reported Earning Dates
NBTB is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
SRCE is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+1.19% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
| NBTB | SRCE | NBTB / SRCE | |
| Capitalization | 2.74B | 2.16B | 127% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 28.946 | 45.306 | 64% |
| P/E Ratio | 12.81 | 12.88 | 99% |
| Revenue | 724M | 453M | 160% |
| Total Cash | 152M | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 180M | 231M | 78% |
NBTB | SRCE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 82 | 88 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 37 Fair valued | 70 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 36 | 10 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 39 | 41 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 38 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 67 | 29 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NBTB's Valuation (37) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SRCE (70). This means that NBTB’s stock grew somewhat faster than SRCE’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's Profit vs Risk Rating (10) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as NBTB (36). This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to NBTB’s over the last 12 months.
NBTB's SMR Rating (39) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as SRCE (41). This means that NBTB’s stock grew similarly to SRCE’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's Price Growth Rating (38) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as NBTB (41). This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to NBTB’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's P/E Growth Rating (29) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NBTB (67). This means that SRCE’s stock grew somewhat faster than NBTB’s over the last 12 months.
| NBTB | SRCE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 49% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 58% | 3 days ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 58% | 3 days ago 55% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 59% | 6 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 56% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 50% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 48% | 3 days ago 45% |
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NBTB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NBTB has been closely correlated with STBA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NBTB jumps, then STBA could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NBTB | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBTB | 100% | -0.53% | ||
| STBA - NBTB | 85% Closely correlated | -0.11% | ||
| SRCE - NBTB | 85% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| FRME - NBTB | 84% Closely correlated | -0.23% | ||
| BUSE - NBTB | 84% Closely correlated | -1.34% | ||
| FCF - NBTB | 83% Closely correlated | -0.28% | ||
More | ||||
SRCE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SRCE has been closely correlated with PEBO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SRCE jumps, then PEBO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SRCE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SRCE | 100% | N/A | ||
| PEBO - SRCE | 89% Closely correlated | +0.24% | ||
| MBWM - SRCE | 87% Closely correlated | +0.59% | ||
| THFF - SRCE | 87% Closely correlated | -0.36% | ||
| PRK - SRCE | 85% Closely correlated | +0.48% | ||
| SHBI - SRCE | 85% Closely correlated | +0.20% | ||
More | ||||