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NBTB vs SRCE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) vs. 1st Source Corporation (SRCE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both NBTB and SRCE are well-capitalized regional bank holding companies, but they operate in different geographies and business mixes.
- SRCE has delivered stronger recent momentum, with a roughly 38–39% year-to-date gain versus about 25% for NBTB.
- NBTB offers a higher dividend yield (around 3.15%) and has been expanding through the Evans Bancorp merger, while SRCE pays a lower yield but has a higher return on assets and return on equity.
- Both banks reported improved profitability in recent quarters, supported by net interest margin expansion and disciplined credit management.
- Investors focused on income and merger-driven scale may favor NBTB, while those emphasizing momentum and efficiency may find SRCE more compelling.
Introduction
Regional banks have moved back into focus as investors weigh the effects of interest-rate policy, loan growth, and credit quality across the sector. This stock comparison examines two established community-oriented lenders: NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) and 1st Source Corporation (SRCE). Although both operate in the same broad industry, their regional footprints, earnings profiles, and market positioning differ meaningfully. For traders and long-term investors evaluating relative performance and market positioning among financial stocks, contrasting these two names offers a practical way to assess growth, profitability, and risk within a comparable peer set.
NBTB Overview and Recent Performance
NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) is a financial holding company founded in 1856 and headquartered in Norwich, New York. It provides commercial and retail banking, wealth management, and retirement plan administration across upstate New York, northeastern Pennsylvania, and parts of New England. The company recently expanded its footprint by completing the acquisition of Evans Bancorp, a deal management has described as earnings-accretive and central to its growth in markets such as Buffalo and Rochester.
In recent weeks, NBTB has traded near its 52-week range, supported by steady loan and deposit growth and a record level of net interest income (NII), the earnings a bank generates from the difference between interest collected on loans and interest paid on deposits. Recent quarterly results showed net interest margin around 3.73% and a rise in non-interest, fee-based revenue, which now represents roughly a quarter of total revenue. The company also raised its quarterly dividend by 8.1%, marking its 14th consecutive annual increase, and maintains a dividend yield near 3.15% — the higher of the two names in this comparison.
SRCE Overview and Recent Performance
1st Source Corporation (SRCE) is the bank holding company for 1st Source Bank, headquartered in South Bend, Indiana, with roots dating to 1863. The company provides commercial and consumer banking, trust and wealth advisory services, and insurance products, and it maintains a notable specialty in lending tied to transportation equipment, aircraft, and renewable energy lines of business.
Recent market activity has favored SRCE, whose shares have advanced more than 38% year-to-date and roughly 50% over the past year. The company reported full-year 2025 net income up nearly 20% and has sustained that momentum into 2026, with a recent quarterly earnings per share (EPS) print that exceeded consensus estimates by a wide margin. Efficiency metrics stand out: return on assets of about 1.86% and return on equity near 13% are both higher than NBTB's. A planned CEO transition to Andrea Short in late 2025 was completed smoothly, and analysts have responded by lifting price targets, with at least one firm moving its target to $100 from $88.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two stocks is momentum versus income. SRCE has posted stronger relative performance over both the year-to-date and one-year periods and carries superior efficiency metrics, reflecting its specialized lending niches and disciplined expense control. NBTB, by contrast, offers a meaningfully higher dividend yield and a more diversified, fee-generating revenue base that includes retirement plan administration and wealth management, which can help smooth earnings through the credit cycle.
On growth drivers, NBTB is leveraging an acquisition to expand its geographic reach, while SRCE is growing organically through commercial lending and renewable-energy-related credit. Both banks have low market betas, indicating below-average volatility relative to the broader market. Risk factors are broadly similar — sensitivity to interest rates, regional economic conditions, and credit quality — though SRCE's higher insider ownership and more concentrated geography present a different profile than NBTB's multi-state footprint.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely tilt toward SRCE in the current environment. The stock demonstrates stronger trend consistency, higher return on assets and return on equity, and a recent earnings beat that has been reinforced by upward analyst revisions — characteristics that tend to align with sustained positive momentum. That said, the assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: NBTB's higher dividend yield, diversified fee income, and acquisition-driven scale could make it more attractive to models that weight stability and income over momentum. The relative positioning of each name may shift as rate expectations and regional credit trends evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NBTB is a StrongBuy and SRCE is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for NBTB turns positive, indicating new upward trend
NBTB saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 79 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 53 of the 79 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NBTB just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where NBTB's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
NBTB moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.33% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NBTB advanced for three days, in 176 of 306 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NBTB declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
NBTB broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NBTB’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 57 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.375) is normal, around the industry mean (1.246). P/E Ratio (12.458) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.217). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.190) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.031) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.658) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
SRCE's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SRCE turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where SRCE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 38 of 63 cases where SRCE's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SRCE as a result. In 47 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
Following a +1.87% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SRCE advanced for three days, in 173 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
SRCE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
SRCE moved below its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SRCE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SRCE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator for SRCE entered a downward trend on October 20, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SRCE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 80 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.577) is normal, around the industry mean (1.246). P/E Ratio (12.311) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.217). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.380) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.617) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
NBTB | SRCE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 68 | 24 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 57 Fair valued | 80 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 34 | 11 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 16 | 19 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 23 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NBTB's Valuation (57) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as SRCE (80). This means that NBTB’s stock grew similarly to SRCE’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's Profit vs Risk Rating (11) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as NBTB (34). This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to NBTB’s over the last 12 months.
NBTB's SMR Rating (16) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as SRCE (19). This means that NBTB’s stock grew similarly to SRCE’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as NBTB (44). This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to NBTB’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's P/E Growth Rating (23) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NBTB (59). This means that SRCE’s stock grew somewhat faster than NBTB’s over the last 12 months.
| NBTB | SRCE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 55% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 58% | 7 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 56% | 16 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 51% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 55% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NBTB’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while SRCE’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- NBTB’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SRCE’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NBTB’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SRCE’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NBTB’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
- SRCE’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
NBTB (@Regional Banks) experienced а +2.53% price change this week, while SRCE (@Regional Banks) price change was +1.76% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +2.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.03%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.99%.
Reported Earning Dates
NBTB is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
SRCE is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+2.63% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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NBTB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NBTB has been closely correlated with FCF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NBTB jumps, then FCF could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NBTB | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBTB | 100% | -0.25% | ||
| FCF - NBTB | 86% Closely correlated | -0.10% | ||
| SRCE - NBTB | 84% Closely correlated | -0.66% | ||
| UBSI - NBTB | 84% Closely correlated | +0.08% | ||
| NWBI - NBTB | 84% Closely correlated | -0.20% | ||
| BUSE - NBTB | 83% Closely correlated | -0.43% | ||
More | ||||
SRCE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SRCE has been closely correlated with PEBO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SRCE jumps, then PEBO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SRCE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SRCE | 100% | -0.66% | ||
| PEBO - SRCE | 89% Closely correlated | -0.61% | ||
| THFF - SRCE | 87% Closely correlated | -0.59% | ||
| MBWM - SRCE | 85% Closely correlated | -0.56% | ||
| NBTB - SRCE | 85% Closely correlated | -0.25% | ||
| BY - SRCE | 85% Closely correlated | -0.61% | ||
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| PLUL | 3.11 | 0.05 | +1.66% |
| Leverage Shares 2X Long PLUG Daily ETF (PLUL) | |||
| METW | 27.21 | 0.26 | +0.96% |
| Roundhill META WeeklyPay ETF | |||
| IDLV | 35.29 | 0.18 | +0.51% |
| Invesco S&P International Developed Low Volatility ETF (IDLV) | |||
| RCGE | 30.12 | 0.03 | +0.09% |
| RockCreek Global Equality ETF (RCGE) | |||
| COMT | 38.33 | -0.16 | -0.42% |
| iShares U.S. ETF Trust iShares GSCI Commodity Dynamic Roll Strategy ETF (COMT) | |||