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NVDA vs NVMI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) vs. Nova Ltd. (NVMI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Revenue growth: NVIDIA posted record quarterly revenue of $30 billion (+122% YoY), while Nova’s sales rose to $527 million (+30% YoY) in its latest quarter.
- Margin profile: NVIDIA’s GAAP gross margin sits near 75%, versus Nova’s 26% profit margin, reflecting differing business models.
- Market sentiment: AI‑driven hype keeps NVIDIA’s price above $260, whereas Nova trades around $235 with modest volatility.
- Risk factors: NVIDIA faces supply‑chain and regulatory exposure; Nova is sensitive to semiconductor fab cycles and geopolitical tension in Taiwan.
- Growth drivers: NVIDIA is powered by data‑center GPU demand; Nova benefits from expanding metrology tools for advanced packaging.
Introduction
Investors and traders often compare high‑visibility AI leaders with niche semiconductor players to gauge exposure to the AI boom. This article pits NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) against NVMI (Nova Ltd.), two companies that serve the AI ecosystem from opposite ends of the value chain. The analysis is relevant for growth‑focused investors, hardware‑themed traders, and risk‑aware portfolio managers seeking to balance sector concentration.
NVDA Overview and Recent Performance
NVIDIA designs graphics processing units (GPUs) and AI accelerators that power data‑center workloads, generative‑AI models and high‑end gaming. The company’s fiscal Q2 2025 results (quarter ended July 28 2024) showed a **record $30 billion revenue**, up 122% year‑over‑year (YoY), driven by **Data‑Center revenue of $26.3 billion** (+154% YoY). GAAP earnings per diluted share (EPS) were $0.67, exceeding analyst forecasts, and the firm announced a **$50 billion additional share‑repurchase authorization**.
Recent market sentiment turned sharply positive after **TSMC confirmed tight supply for high‑end AI chips** on July 18 2024, sparking a ~3% rally in NVIDIA shares. A later boost came on July 31 2024 when Microsoft disclosed a $19 billion cap‑ex budget with ~60% allocated to NVIDIA‑based hardware, helping the stock close **13% higher**. Analysts note that demand for the upcoming **Blackwell** GPU line remains robust, while the current **Hopper** family (H100) continues to ship at scale.
Key catalysts: continued AI‑model training spend by hyperscalers, early Blackwell sample shipments, and expanding software platforms (NVIDIA AI Enterprise, NIM microservices). Risks include export‑control restrictions, supply‑chain bottlenecks for advanced packaging, and valuation pressures as the market caps the stock near $3 trillion.
NVMI Overview and Recent Performance
Nova Ltd. (formerly Nova Measuring Instruments) supplies **process‑control metrology systems** used to measure dimensions, films and chemicals on semiconductor wafers. Its product portfolio supports logic, memory, foundry and advanced‑packaging nodes worldwide.
In the most recent quarter (Q1 2024), Nova reported **revenue of $527 million**, a 30% YoY increase, and a **profit margin of 26.3%**. Earnings per share (EPS) were $4.33, and the company posted **cash of $495 million**, giving it a solid liquidity cushion. The stock traded around **$235**, up roughly 1% on the day, reflecting investor confidence in the company’s **metrology‑tool expansion** and recent wins with gate‑all‑around (GAA) and advanced‑packaging customers.
Recent news highlights include Nova’s participation in **SEMICON West** and a series of **Q&A investor calls** in June 2024 where management emphasized a **pipeline of new dimensional‑metrology platforms** for 3‑nm and beyond. The firm’s exposure to Taiwan’s fab ecosystem adds geopolitical risk, but its diversified customer base across the United States, South Korea and Europe mitigates concentration.
Key catalysts: demand for advanced packaging verification, growth of EUV‑driven metrology, and strategic acquisitions (e.g., Revera, an‑cosys) that broaden the material‑analysis suite. Risks involve cyclical fab spending, potential supply constraints for critical components, and competitive pressure from larger equipment OEMs.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
- Business Model: NVIDIA develops and sells proprietary silicon plus an expanding software ecosystem; Nova sells high‑precision metrology hardware and services.
- Growth Drivers: NVIDIA’s data‑center GPU demand from AI training and inference; Nova’s demand from advanced‑packaging verification and lithography metrology.
- Recent Momentum: NVIDIA enjoys double‑digit quarterly revenue growth and strong analyst upgrades; Nova shows solid double‑digit YoY growth but more modest quarterly moves.
- Risk Factors: NVIDIA faces regulatory export limits and supply‑chain saturation; Nova is exposed to fab‑cycle cycles and Taiwan geopolitical tension.
- Sector Exposure: Both sit in the broader **Technology** sector, but NVIDIA is classified under **Semiconductors**, while Nova falls under **Semiconductor Equipment & Materials**.
- Market Sentiment: NVIDIA enjoys a premium valuation (P/E ~ 70) reflecting AI hype; Nova trades at a more modest multiple (P/E ~ 54) with lower speculative upside.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors—consistent revenue acceleration, strong cash‑flow generation, and clear AI‑centric catalysts—Tickeron’s AI models assign a higher probabilistic favorability to **NVIDIA (NVDA)** at the current moment. Nova (NVMI) remains a compelling long‑term play given its niche positioning and expanding addressable market, but its growth is more incremental and tied to broader fab cycles. The AI verdict reflects trend consistency and catalyst density rather than definitive investment advice.
Disclaimer
“The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.” Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NVDA is a Hold and NVMI is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NVDA’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileNVMI’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- NVDA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- NVMI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NVDA’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVMI’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NVDA’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- NVMI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
NVDA (@Semiconductors) experienced а -3.55% price change this week, while NVMI (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was -4.20% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was -0.06%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.25%, and the average quarterly price growth was +92.80%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was -0.08%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +8.47%, and the average quarterly price growth was +128.49%.
Reported Earning Dates
NVDA is expected to report earnings on Aug 26, 2026.
NVMI is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (-0.06% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
@Electronic Production Equipment (-0.08% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
| NVDA | NVMI | NVDA / NVMI | |
| Capitalization | 4.85T | 16.8B | 28,839% |
| EBITDA | 193B | 284M | 67,958% |
| Gain YTD | 7.396 | 60.653 | 12% |
| P/E Ratio | 31.95 | 73.16 | 44% |
| Revenue | 253B | 903M | 28,018% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 1.1B | - |
| Total Debt | 12.3B | 800M | 1,538% |
NVDA | NVMI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 58 | 26 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 75 Overvalued | 70 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 6 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 11 | 43 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 37 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 81 | 10 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 32 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NVMI's Valuation (70) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as NVDA (75) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that NVMI’s stock grew similarly to NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
NVMI's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as NVDA (9) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that NVMI’s stock grew similarly to NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's SMR Rating (11) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as NVMI (43) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to NVMI’s over the last 12 months.
NVMI's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as NVDA (45) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that NVMI’s stock grew similarly to NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
NVMI's P/E Growth Rating (10) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is significantly better than the same rating for NVDA (81) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that NVMI’s stock grew significantly faster than NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
| NVDA | NVMI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 87% | 1 day ago 61% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 79% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 80% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 70% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 79% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 19 days ago 69% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 75% |
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NVMI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVMI has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NVMI jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NVMI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVMI | 100% | -9.52% | ||
| LRCX - NVMI | 82% Closely correlated | -9.33% | ||
| KLAC - NVMI | 78% Closely correlated | -9.17% | ||
| AMAT - NVMI | 78% Closely correlated | -8.48% | ||
| CAMT - NVMI | 76% Closely correlated | -13.45% | ||
| ONTO - NVMI | 73% Closely correlated | -9.20% | ||
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