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VHT vs XLV
Which ETF would AI Choose? Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT) vs. Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV)
Key Takeaways
- VHT tracks the MSCI US Investable Market Health Care 25/50 Index, holding roughly 420 stocks across large, mid, and small capitalization tiers, while XLV tracks the Health Care Select Sector Index and holds only the roughly 60 to 65 health care names in the S&P 500 Index.
- Both funds are passively managed and market-cap weighted, and their top holdings overlap heavily around mega-cap names such as LLY, JNJ, and ABBV.
- XLV is slightly cheaper and more concentrated, with a large-cap tilt, whereas VHT offers deeper diversification and broader exposure to smaller health care and biotechnology companies.
- Cost differences are minimal, with expense ratios near 0.08% to 0.09%, making both among the lowest-cost ways to access U.S. health care equities.
- Relative performance is driven largely by the same mega-cap pharmaceuticals and managed-care names, meaning the two funds often move together despite different holding counts.
Introduction
Investors seeking broad U.S. health care exposure frequently compare the Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT) and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV). These two funds do not represent different strategies so much as different scopes of the same theme: both are passive, market-cap-weighted vehicles capturing the health care sector, but they draw from different indexes. Understanding where they diverge—breadth of holdings, size exposure, cost, and concentration—can help investors choose the vehicle that best matches their diversification goals and risk tolerance in the current market environment.
Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT) Overview
VHT is a passively managed ETF that seeks to track the MSCI US Investable Market Health Care 25/50 Index, a benchmark spanning large, mid, and small U.S. health care companies. With roughly 420 holdings, it offers one of the broadest health care portfolios available in an exchange-traded fund, reaching well beyond the mega caps into mid- and small-cap biotechnology, medical devices, and services names. The fund employs a full-replication indexing approach and carries an expense ratio of approximately 0.09%.
Its largest positions include Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), AbbVie (ABBV), Merck & Co. (MRK), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH), with additional meaningful weights in Amgen (AMGN), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), and Abbott Laboratories (ABT). The portfolio is effectively 100% allocated to health care, with a U.S. concentration above 95%. Because of its total-market reach, VHT provides greater exposure to smaller, higher-growth companies than a large-cap-only sector fund.
Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) Overview
XLV is a passively managed ETF that seeks to track the Health Care Select Sector Index, which comprises the health care constituents of the S&P 500 Index (a widely followed benchmark of large U.S. companies). With approximately 60 to 65 holdings, the fund is far more concentrated than VHT and is dominated by mega-cap pharmaceutical, managed-care, and medical technology companies. Its expense ratio is approximately 0.08%, among the lowest in the health care category.
Top holdings mirror those of VHT but at higher weights: Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), AbbVie (ABBV), Merck & Co. (MRK), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH), followed by Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) and Amgen (AMGN). Industry exposure skews toward pharmaceuticals, health care equipment and supplies, providers and services, life sciences tools, and biotechnology. As a large-cap-only, non-diversified fund, XLV concentrates risk in its top names but offers the liquidity and familiarity of the S&P 500 ecosystem.
Industry and Thematic Backdrop
Both funds operate within a health care sector shaped by several durable catalysts and risks. Drug pricing policy and regulatory scrutiny remain recurring themes, while an aging U.S. population supports long-term demand for pharmaceuticals, devices, and services. Innovation in obesity and metabolic treatments—led by names such as LLY—has been a dominant performance driver in recent market cycles, alongside steady contributions from diversified drugmakers and managed-care providers.
At the same time, the sector is not immune to macroeconomic forces. Health care equities are often viewed as defensive, but interest-rate expectations, earnings cycles among insurers and hospitals, and geopolitical supply-chain considerations can all influence flows. Sector rotation between growth-oriented biotechnology and more defensive pharmaceuticals and payers has shaped relative returns, keeping both ETFs closely tied to the fortunes of a handful of large constituents.
Performance and Positioning Comparison
In recent weeks and months, VHT and XLV have generally tracked each other closely, reflecting their shared mega-cap core. XLV's higher concentration in top holdings such as LLY and JNJ can amplify both upside and downside when those names outperform or lag, while VHT's broader base can smooth returns and provide incremental exposure to smaller, faster-growing biotechnology and device companies.
Both funds carry below-market beta and have historically exhibited lower volatility than the broader equity market, consistent with health care's defensive character. Positioning differences are modest: investors prioritizing deep diversification and small/mid-cap participation may favor VHT, while those seeking concentrated large-cap exposure and marginal cost savings may gravitate toward XLV.
AI Screener
Tickeron's AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of stocks and ETFs using customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. The screener helps identify trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and market opportunities more efficiently than manual screening. Explore the AI Screener to refine your health care sector research.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable structural factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor XLV as the core large-cap health care allocation, citing its marginally lower expense ratio, deep liquidity, and the strong momentum concentrated in its largest holdings. However, VHT presents a compelling case for investors seeking broader diversification and exposure to smaller, higher-growth health care and biotechnology names. The choice ultimately depends on whether an investor prioritizes concentrated large-cap efficiency or diversified total-market coverage; neither fund offers a clear structural disadvantage.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is VHT is a StrongBuy and XLV is a StrongBuy.
VHT in +4.04% Uptrend, advancing for three consecutive days on October 15, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where VHT advanced for three days, in 255 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on VHT as a result. In 69 of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for VHT just turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where VHT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
VHT moved above its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for VHT crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for VHT moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 37 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 27 of the 37 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 73%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VHT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
VHT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for VHT entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
XLV in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026
The 10-day moving average for XLV crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on XLV as a result. In 77 of 97 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for XLV just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where XLV's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 43 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
XLV moved above its 50-day moving average on October 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +4.44% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XLV advanced for three days, in 265 of 327 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 222 of 271 cases where XLV Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 82%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for XLV moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 37 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 30 of the 37 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 81%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XLV declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
XLV broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
| VHT | XLV | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 81% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 77% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 78% | 4 days ago 79% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 80% | 4 days ago 90% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 79% | 4 days ago 82% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 81% | 4 days ago 84% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 81% | 12 days ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 82% | 8 days ago 82% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 90% | 4 days ago 80% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 89% | 4 days ago 82% |
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XLV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, XLV has been closely correlated with LLY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if XLV jumps, then LLY could also see price increases.
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