ASRT stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Assertio Holdings Inc is a pharmaceutical company... Show more
Why Assertio Holdings (ASRT) Is Up +66% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- ASRT stock surged +66% over the past 30 days, driven by strong Q4 2025 earnings beat and optimistic 2026 guidance highlighting Rolvedon growth.
- Over the past quarter, the stock rose +117%, fueled by improving gross margins, stable product demand, and analyst price target increases.
- Key drivers include earnings outperformance, with adjusted EPS loss narrower than expected, revenue beat, and focus on high-margin oncology products like Rolvedon.
- Gross margin expansion to 75% in Q4 and projected adjusted EBITDA of $28M-$40M for 2026 boosted investor sentiment.
- Analyst targets averaging around $35-$38 signal significant upside potential amid portfolio optimization.
Assertio Holdings (ASRT) Company Overview and Market Position
Assertio Holdings, Inc. (ASRT) is a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company specializing in branded prescription products for neurology, oncology, pain, and inflammation. Its core business model involves acquiring, licensing, and commercializing differentiated therapies, leveraging an efficient omni-channel approach with digital marketing, field sales, and market access capabilities. Key products include Rolvedon (efpegpegfilgrastim), a long-acting granulocyte colony-stimulating factor for oncology support to reduce febrile neutropenia; Sympazan, a benzodiazepine for seizures in Lennox-Gastaut syndrome; Indocin (indomethacin), a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) for arthritis and gout; and others like Cambia and Sprrix for migraine and pain management.
In the competitive specialty pharma landscape, Assertio holds a strong position in niche markets, particularly with Rolvedon maintaining leadership in Medicare Part B clinic share. This exposure to high-growth oncology and stable neurology products explains recent stock strength, as management shifts toward capital-efficient expansion of its oncology franchise amid improving fundamentals like 75% gross margins.
Assertio Holdings (ASRT) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, ASRT stock climbed from approximately $12 (early March close around March 5 at $11.95) to $19.88, marking a +66% gain. The movement was volatile and trend-driven, with sharp accelerations post-Q4 earnings on March 16, including multi-day surges of 12-18% amid high volume exceeding 400,000 shares on peak days.
For the past quarter (early January close on January 2 at $9.14 to current $19.88), the stock advanced +117%. This upward trend featured steady gains from January lows, accelerating in March with range-bound consolidation around $11-12 giving way to breakout highs near $20.45, reflecting sustained buying interest and outperformance versus broader medical peers.
What Drove ASRT Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The primary catalyst was Assertio's Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings release on March 16, where the company reported an adjusted EPS loss of -$1.86, far better than the consensus -$3.05 estimate (39% surprise), and revenue of $13.54 million beating expectations by 185% despite a year-over-year decline. Gross margins improved to 75% from 61%, driven by higher Indocin mix and no repeat inventory write-downs.
Optimistic 2026 guidance for net product sales of $110M-$125M and adjusted EBITDA of $28M-$40M emphasized Rolvedon as the core growth asset, with normalized sales resuming Q2 post-integration and stable demand. Sympazan sales rose to $3.1M (up 24%), offsetting Rolvedon timing issues at $0.4M. Analyst reactions included HC Wainwright raising its target from $3 to $35 (Buy rating), fueling momentum as consensus targets hit $35-$38, implying over 75% upside. Positive market sentiment around oncology focus and cost discipline amplified the post-earnings rally.
What Drove ASRT Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The quarter's +117% rise built on portfolio stabilization and strategic realignment. Rolvedon full-year sales hit $68.2M despite Q4 softness from sell-in timing, maintaining market share leadership. Sympazan showed consistent growth from volume and payer mix, while Indocin held steady at $5.5M quarterly amid generic pressure offset by pricing.
Macro factors like favorable oncology demand and payer expansions supported recovery from early-year lows around $9. Institutional interest grew with YTD returns exceeding 100%, outpacing the S&P 500. Broader sector trends in specialty pharma, combined with Assertio's margin leverage (TTM revenue $118.71M, improving EBITDA), created cumulative upward pressure. The earnings beat and guidance crystallized these narratives, driving the strongest gains.
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ASRT Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Investors should monitor Q1 2026 earnings for Rolvedon sales normalization post-label transition and Sympazan volume trends. Upcoming industry developments in oncology support therapies, including payer formulary updates for Rolvedon, could influence access and uptake. Macro conditions like healthcare spending and biosimilar competition remain key. Strategic moves in oncology portfolio expansion via disciplined licensing, alongside EBITDA margin progression toward $28M-$40M guidance, will shape sentiment. Risks include generic erosion on Indocin and execution on Rolvedon demand; catalysts may arise from analyst updates or partnership announcements.
Disclaimer
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Aroon Indicator for ASRT shows an upward move is likely
ASRT's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on April 07, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 221 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In of the 221 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on March 16, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ASRT as a result. In of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ASRT just turned positive on March 17, 2026. Looking at past instances where ASRT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The 50-day moving average for ASRT moved above the 200-day moving average on March 16, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ASRT advanced for three days, in of 247 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ASRT moved out of overbought territory on April 07, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 44 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 63 cases where ASRT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ASRT declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
ASRT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on March 24, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ASRT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.236) is normal, around the industry mean (29.056). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (63.993). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.895) is also within normal values, averaging (2.032). ASRT has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.030). P/S Ratio (0.972) is also within normal values, averaging (110.010).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ASRT’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a manufacturer of pharmaceutical products
Industry PharmaceuticalsGeneric