Short interest on Restaurant Brands International jumps tremendously in first half of September
You might not be familiar with the name Restaurant Brands International (NYSE: QSR), but you probably know the names of the restaurants it operates. The brands include Tim Hortons, Burger King, and Popeyes. Restaurant Brands operates over 4,800 Tim Hortons, 17,800 Burger Kings, and 3,100 Popeyes in approximately 100 countries around the world.
The company got my attention for a couple of reasons recently and both of them point to a possible rally in the stock. First, I received a bullish signal on Restaurant Brands on September 30 as the daily stochastic readings made a bullish crossover. Secondly, I noticed that the short interest on the stock jumped sharply in the first half of September.
Let’s look at the chart first. We see on the daily chart that the stock was trending higher after gapping up in January. There were a few dips along the way, but the pullback in the past month has been the most severe. The selling brought the 10-day RSI down close to oversold territory before it turned a little higher and the stochastic readings reached oversold territory before making the aforementioned bullish crossover.
I found the trend line to be particularly interesting as it touched the pre-gap high from January as well as the low in March. The low at the end of May/beginning of June also touches the trend line and now this recent dip hits it yet again.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for Restaurant Brands is 23 and that indicates outstanding price growth. The stock price has grown at a higher rate over the last 12 months than S&P 500 index constituents. A rating of 1 points to highest price growth (largest percent return) while a rating of 100 points to lowest price growth (smallest percent return).
Turning our attention to the short interest on Restaurant Brands, the number of shares sold short jumped from 6.6 million at the end of August to 22.96 million on September 13. That is one of the biggest jumps in short interest I have ever seen and I have been watching short interest changes for almost 20 years now. The jump caused the short interest ratio to jump to 10.1 and that is extremely high. The average short interest ratio is in the range of 3.0.
From a contrarian perspective, the big jump in short interest and the high short interest ratio are both good signs. For the stock to maintain its upward trend while so much selling pressure has been applied is incredible. Secondly, if the stock resumes its upward trend, the short sellers may have to close their positions and that can add tremendous buying pressure to the stock.
As for the fundamentals for Restaurant Brands, the Tickeron SMR rating is 25, indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for the stock is 29 and that indicates outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The company has seen earnings grow by an average of 27% per year over the last three years while sales have increased by an average of 12% per year over that same time period. In addition, the company boasts a return on equity of 64.8% and a profit margin of 28.3%. Both of those readings are outstanding.
QSR in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on March 28, 2025
QSR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In of 25 cases where QSR's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
QSR moved above its 50-day moving average on February 27, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where QSR advanced for three days, in of 312 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 280 cases where QSR Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for QSR moved out of overbought territory on March 11, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 36 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 69 cases where QSR's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on March 28, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on QSR as a result. In of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for QSR turned negative on March 28, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where QSR declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.018) is normal, around the industry mean (4.648). P/E Ratio (21.123) is within average values for comparable stocks, (55.691). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.149) is also within normal values, averaging (1.767). Dividend Yield (0.035) settles around the average of (0.047) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.627) is also within normal values, averaging (8.550).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. QSR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
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an operator of restaurants
Industry Restaurants