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Sergey Savastiouk's Avatar
published in Blogs
Apr 22, 2025

GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES IN THE NEW GOLD RUSH

The precious metals complex is experiencing a surge unlike any we’ve seen since the last great market upheaval. Gold—long touted as the ultimate safe‑haven asset—has captured investor attention on multiple fronts. From record fund inflows to eye‑watering year‑to‑date gains, the setup for smart precious‑metal investors has never been more compelling.

 

1. Record‑Shattering Fund Flows

Last week alone, investors poured $8 billion into gold‑focused exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds—more than double the previous weekly record set during the 2020 pandemic. This bullish stampede pushed the four‑week moving average of net inflows to $4 billion, another all‑time high. Such massive capital rotation into gold funds signals broad institutional and retail conviction that precious metals will continue to outperform in the face of mounting economic uncertainty.

2. Unprecedented Price Performance

Gold’s price action this year tells the same story: a 29% gain so far, marking its best year‑to‑date performance since 1974. Remarkably, in just under five months, gold has already outstripped its entire 27% return from 2024. For investors wondering if the rally has legs, these numbers suggest strong momentum and a market that’s rapidly repricing gold’s role as both a hedge and an alpha generator.

 

3. Macro Tailwinds: Rising Money Supply

One of the strongest long‑term drivers for gold is real money supply growth. As the Federal Reserve continues to expand M2 money supply—the broadest measure of liquid money—investors often turn to gold to preserve purchasing power. With M2 still on an upward trajectory, gold’s scarcity and finite supply position it as a natural beneficiary of currency 

debasement and inflationary pressures.

 

 

4. Opportunistic Plays

Several relative‑value opportunities now stand out:

  1. Gold/Silver Ratio at All‑Time High
    Historically, silver tends to outperform gold when the ratio (gold price divided by silver price) spikes above its long‑term average (~70–80). Today’s ratio of over 90 suggests silver remains deeply undervalued. Buying silver or silver miners could capture outsized gains when this ratio reverts toward historical norms.


 

  1. Gold/S&P 500 Ratio Near Lows
    The current gold‑to‑S&P 500 ratio sits at the lower end of its range, implying one of two scenarios: either gold will continue its advance, or equities face further headwinds. For balanced portfolios, adding gold exposure now offers diversification and downside protection against a potential market correction.


 

  1. Gold Miners’ Stocks Undervalued Relative to Gold
    Despite gold’s 29% rally, major gold‑miner ETFs (e.g., GDX) are up only about 15%. Miners typically leverage gold price moves—historically outperforming on the upside and underperforming on the downside—so this valuation gap signals potential upside as miners’ margins expand.

5. How to Play the New Gold Rush

  • Core Gold Holdings: Consider broad gold ETFs (e.g., GLDIAU) or physical bullion for immediate exposure to the rally.
     
  • Silver Leverage: Silver miners’ ETFs (e.g., SIL) or physical silver coins can amplify returns if the gold/silver ratio normalizes.
     
  • Miner Leverage: Add or overweight gold‑miner ETFs (GDXGDXJ) to capture leveraged upside as miners re‑rate.
     
  • Relative Value Trades: Pair gold longs with S&P 500 hedges (e.g., SPX puts) to capture inter‑market dislocations.
     
  • Active Management with AI: Platforms like Tickeron’s AI‑driven strategies can execute dynamic entries and exits, automatically managing risk and capitalizing on short‑term momentum swings in precious metals.
     

 

Conclusion

Gold’s current run—fueled by record inflows, historic price gains, and an unstoppable rise in money supply—has ushered in a modern‑day “gold rush.” But savvy investors will look beyond the bullion itself, exploiting ratios and using hedged strategies to maximize returns while protecting against tail risks. Whether you’re a long‑term allocator or an active trader, the opportunities in precious metals today have the potential to shine brightly in your portfolio.

 Disclaimers and Limitations

Related Ticker: GLD, IAU, GDX, GDXJ, SIL

Aroon Indicator for GLD shows an upward move is likely

GLD's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on April 17, 2025. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 294 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In of the 294 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on April 09, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GLD as a result. In of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GLD just turned positive on April 11, 2025. Looking at past instances where GLD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GLD advanced for three days, in of 341 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GLD declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

GLD broke above its upper Bollinger Band on April 16, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Industry description

The investment seeks to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the expenses of the Trust’s operations. The Trust holds gold bars and from time to time, issues Baskets in exchange for deposits of gold and distributes gold in connection with redemptions of Baskets. The investment objective of the Trust is for the Shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the Trust’s expenses. The Sponsor believes that, for many investors, the Shares represent a cost-effective investment in gold.
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Category PreciousMetals

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