GET DAILY SIGNALSAccel Entertainment (ACEL) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: Watching the Chicago VGT Rollout
Key Takeaways
- Accel Entertainment (ACEL) is expected to report third-quarter 2026 results after the market close around November 10, 2026, for the three months ended September 30, 2026.
- The company enters the print off a record second quarter, with revenue of $368.1 million and adjusted EBITDA of $58.9 million (EBITDA is earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization).
- A central focus will be the Chicago video gaming terminal (VGT) rollout, where Accel has secured approvals for roughly 44% of licensed locations to date.
- The year-ago period provides a comparison of $329.7 million in revenue and $0.16 in diluted earnings per share (EPS).
- Investors will also track Illinois location hold-per-day, the Nevada and Louisiana ramps, and Fairmount Park's contribution.
Why This Earnings Report Matters
Accel Entertainment is one of the largest terminal operators in the United States, supporting roughly 28,000 gaming terminals across more than 4,500 third-party local establishments and self-operated locations in ten states. Its third-quarter report matters because the company is in the middle of a multi-quarter margin expansion story, driven by route optimization in Illinois, its core market, and accelerating profitability in developing states. The results also arrive as Chicago's long-awaited VGT market begins to open, a catalyst management has repeatedly called one of Accel's most compelling near-term growth opportunities. With the CEO transition underway and a refreshed balance sheet, this print will signal whether operating leverage and disciplined capital deployment can keep compounding. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
What the Numbers Show
Accel does not issue formal quarterly guidance, so attention turns to year-over-year momentum and operating metrics rather than a company-provided outlook. The comparable period, the third quarter of 2025, produced total net revenues of $329.7 million, net income of $13.3 million, and diluted EPS of $0.16. That followed a second quarter of 2026 that set a record with $368.1 million in revenue, up 9.6% year over year, alongside adjusted EBITDA of $58.9 million and diluted EPS of $0.15. Key metrics to watch include Illinois average location hold-per-day, which rose 9% year over year to $992 in the second quarter, and revenue growth in developing markets, where Nebraska and Georgia delivered 55% and 47% growth, respectively. Investors will also monitor Nevada's terminal expansion and the ramp at Fairmount Park, which posted its highest quarterly gross profit since acquisition. From what I see, reviewing these operating details alongside AI-driven signals helps put the headline numbers in better context.
Market Sentiment Heading Into the Report
Sentiment heading into the third-quarter report is shaped by a mix of expansion optimism and near-term execution questions. The Chicago VGT launch has been a key narrative, with Accel approved for 44% of the first licensed establishments and infrastructure positioned to scale quickly. However, management has cautioned that full deployment could take five or more years, tempering expectations for an immediate revenue inflection. Nevada's hold-per-day declined 15.8% in the second quarter as the route mix shifted toward lower-yielding convenience stores, a factor analysts are likely to probe. Non-cash items, including a $2.5 million equipment write-down and a $5 million earn-out mark-to-market loss, also weighed on second-quarter net income and may shape how investors interpret headline earnings.
What to Watch After the Print
Following the print, investors should watch whether the Chicago licensing process accelerates. Management indicated the first establishments could go live in the coming weeks, with a more normal application flow expected once operations begin. Any update on the number of Accel locations receiving city licenses will be closely scrutinized, given the market is estimated to represent roughly $1 billion in total revenue over time. Margin trends in Illinois remain central. The completed rollout of ticket-in, ticket-out (TITO) technology is expected to reduce cash held in the field and improve working capital over time, though its direct revenue contribution is still hard to isolate. Sustained hold-per-day growth and continued pruning of lower-performing locations will be key signals of operating leverage. In developing markets, the pace of Nevada's convenience-store transition, Louisiana's bolt-on acquisition strategy, and Fairmount Park's progression toward a permanent casino are important catalysts. Balance sheet flexibility, with net leverage near 1.4 times and an undrawn $300 million revolving credit facility, leaves room for further buybacks and acquisitions, making capital allocation commentary a key area to monitor. I’m watching this closely for signs of sustained momentum.
Refining My Watchlist with AI Tools
When preparing for reports like this one, I find it helpful to run a quick scan of comparable names using Tickeron’s AI Screener. It lets me filter by industry, performance metrics, and technical patterns in one place, which adds useful context without replacing my own analysis of the fundamentals. This approach keeps my process efficient while highlighting where Accel stands relative to peers.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
ACEL's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ACEL turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where ACEL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ACEL as a result. In 60 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
ACEL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.40% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ACEL advanced for three days, in 203 of 303 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 50-day moving average for ACEL moved below the 200-day moving average on October 02, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ACEL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
ACEL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ACEL entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 43 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.407) is normal, around the industry mean (3.526). P/E Ratio (17.515) is within average values for comparable stocks, (0.429). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.260) is also within normal values, averaging (0.476). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.701) is also within normal values, averaging (1.692).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ACEL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ACEL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 100, placing this stock worse than average.
Industry description
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
a provider of gaming services
Industry CasinosGaming
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