GET DAILY SIGNALSCalumet (CLMT) Delivers Strong Q3 Results with Revenue Up +56.1%
Key Takeaways
- Calumet reported third quarter 2026 net income of $273.3 million, or $2.91 per basic common share, compared with $313.4 million, or $3.61, in the prior-year quarter.
- Revenue climbed 56.1% year over year to roughly $1.68 billion, beating consensus estimates of about $1.34 billion.
- Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) with tax attributes reached $347.2 million, up sharply from $92.5 million a year earlier.
- Specialty Products and Solutions (SPS) segment Adjusted EBITDA more than tripled to $248.1 million, driven by record specialty margins.
- Montana/Renewables delivered $110.6 million in Adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes, versus $17.1 million in the same period last year.
- Shares rose about 6.2% to $46.05 in immediate reaction to the results.
Why These Results Matter
Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) manufactures and markets specialty branded products and renewable fuels across twelve North American facilities. Its third quarter 2026 results carry outsized weight for investors because they capture the first full quarter following the initial phase of the MaxSAF expansion at Montana Renewables, a project backed by a U.S. Department of Energy loan guarantee. The report also tests whether last year's margin gains were sustainable. Coming off a 2025 quarter in which net income was inflated by a one-time non-cash benefit, this release offered a clearer read on underlying operational momentum, making the strength in Adjusted EBITDA and segment margins the central focus for shareholders. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Breaking Down the Reported Figures
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, Calumet reported revenue of approximately $1.68 billion, a 56.1% increase year over year and a beat of roughly 25.3% relative to consensus estimates near $1.34 billion. GAAP earnings per share, or EPS, came in at $2.91, well above the $1.67 consensus expectation. Net income was $273.3 million, down from $313.4 million a year earlier, reflecting the absence of a prior-year non-cash gain tied to Renewable Identification Number (RIN) obligation derecognition.
On an operational basis, Adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes reached $347.2 million, more than tripling from $92.5 million in the prior-year period and beating consensus of about $264 million. Adjusted EBITDA, excluding tax attributes, was $322.0 million versus $69.6 million a year ago. The Specialty Products and Solutions segment led the way with $248.1 million in Adjusted EBITDA, up from $80.2 million, supported by specialty material margins above $108 per barrel. Montana/Renewables contributed $110.6 million in Adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes, while Performance Brands declined to $9.1 million from $13.2 million. Free cash flow reached $161.3 million, a 9.6% margin. From what I see, the operational metrics here paint a clearer picture than the GAAP net income line alone.
How the Market Reacted
The market responded positively to Calumet's third quarter report, with shares climbing about 6.2% to $46.05 shortly after the release. Investors appeared to reward the broad-based earnings beat and, in particular, the sharp expansion in Adjusted EBITDA and the record Specialty Products and Solutions segment performance. The decline in reported net income versus last year was largely understood as a comparison artifact, since the 2025 quarter included a one-time non-cash gain. Sentiment centered instead on improving margins, stronger free cash flow, and the initial contribution from the MaxSAF expansion, all of which signaled strengthening operational fundamentals rather than a one-off accounting benefit.
What to Watch Going Forward
Following this quarter, investors will likely focus on whether Calumet can sustain its improved margin profile. Management has pointed to a strong index margin environment in renewable fuels and peak seasonal demand in asphalt and fuels, but these conditions can shift with commodity prices and policy developments. Watch for updates on the MaxSAF expansion and whether Montana Renewables can build on its record Adjusted EBITDA contribution.
Regulatory factors remain important as well. Clean fuel production credits and Renewable Identification Number (RIN) obligations directly influence the renewable fuels segment's profitability, and any changes in federal energy policy could affect future results. Cost control and free cash flow generation will also be closely monitored, given the company's ongoing focus on deleveraging its balance sheet.
Finally, segment-level trends matter: sustaining Specialty Products and Solutions margins, stabilizing the Performance Brands business, and confirming the durability of Montana/Renewables economics will be key signals in the quarters ahead. As always, investors should weigh these operational factors against broader energy market volatility before drawing conclusions. I'm watching this closely as the next few quarters will test the durability of these gains.
Integrating AI Tools into My Research
In my own analysis, I frequently turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter for comparable names in the specialty refining and renewable fuels space. It helps surface ideas based on technical patterns, fundamentals, and AI signals without spending hours on manual screens. This kind of tool has become a regular part of how I cross-check operational trends against peer performance before forming a fuller view on names like CLMT.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
CLMT in -9.08% downward trend, sliding for three consecutive days on November 06, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where CLMT declined for three days, in 230 of 298 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 19, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CLMT as a result. In 55 of 75 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CLMT turned negative on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 31 of the 42 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 74%.
CLMT moved below its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CLMT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The Aroon Indicator for CLMT entered a downward trend on October 26, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 12 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +3.85% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CLMT advanced for three days, in 263 of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
CLMT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 9 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (-3.064) is normal, around the industry mean (2.365). P/E Ratio (-25.740) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-17.546). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.070) is also within normal values, averaging (1.548). Dividend Yield (0.069) settles around the average of (0.040) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.100) is also within normal values, averaging (48.960).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CLMT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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a producer of specialty hydrocarbon products
Industry ChemicalsSpecialty
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