GET DAILY SIGNALSItaú Unibanco (ITUB) Reports Record Q3 Profit of R$12.6 Billion, Up +6.2% Year Over Year
Key Takeaways
- Itaú Unibanco reported record recurring managerial net income of R$12.6 billion for the third quarter of 2026, up 6.2% year over year and in line with consensus estimates.
- Annualized return on average equity (ROE) eased to 23.6%, down from 24.3% in the prior quarter.
- The total credit portfolio grew 10.2% year over year to R$1.544 trillion, while the 90-day non-performing loan ratio ticked up to 2.0%.
- Cost of credit rose 10.2% year over year to R$10.4 billion, roughly in line with portfolio growth, while fee and insurance revenues remained nearly flat.
- Management reiterated nearly all 2026 guidance and lowered its effective income tax rate estimate to a range of 28% to 29%.
Why This Earnings Report Matters
Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A., Latin America’s largest private-sector bank by market value, entered this earnings season with an unusually high bar. After mixed results from Brazilian peers, investors were watching whether ITUB could sustain the profitability advantage that has made it a standout in a challenging credit environment. The bank’s disciplined, risk-adjusted lending strategy and strong asset quality have underpinned twelve consecutive quarters of profit growth. This Q3 2026 report matters because it tests whether that formula still holds as credit costs normalize, fee income stays soft, and the bank digests the July sale of its Colombian retail operation.
Reported Results
ITUB posted record recurring managerial net income of R$12.6 billion for the third quarter of 2026, up 6.2% from R$11.9 billion a year earlier and in line with the Reuters consensus estimate of R$12.6 billion. Excluding the divested Colombian retail operation, profit rose 6.7% year over year and 2.5% from the prior quarter. Earnings per share attributable to controlling shareholders reached R$1.11, up from R$1.02 a year ago.
Annualized consolidated ROE was 23.6%, easing from 24.3% in the second quarter, while ROE in the Brazil operation stood at 24.5%. The total credit portfolio ended September at R$1.544 trillion, up 10.2% year over year and 1.4% sequentially. Growth was led by private payroll loans (up 93.7% year over year), mortgage lending (up 15.8%), and loans to micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (up 15.1%).
The 90-day NPL ratio rose slightly to 2.0%, from 1.9% a year earlier, while the cost of credit increased 10.2% year over year to R$10.4 billion. Managerial financial margin reached R$34.6 billion, up 7.8% year over year. The bank reiterated its 2026 guidance for total credit portfolio growth of 5.5% to 9.5% and cost of credit between R$38.5 billion and R$43.5 billion, while lowering its projected effective tax rate to 28%–29%. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment heading into the report was cautiously optimistic, with analysts at Goldman Sachs and others describing ITUB as the best-positioned bank in the Brazilian sector. Because results landed essentially in line with consensus, the market reaction is expected to hinge less on the headline profit figure and more on the details beneath it: the modest decline in ROE, the slight uptick in the NPL ratio, and the continued stagnation of fee and insurance revenues.
Investors are likely to weigh the bank’s still-enviable asset quality, which remains roughly half the delinquency levels seen across the broader market, against early signs of normalization. The maintained full-year guidance and the lower projected tax rate offer a supportive backdrop, but the easing in profitability and soft service-revenue growth give a more mixed read on near-term momentum.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, several factors will shape how investors assess ITUB’s trajectory. First is the evolution of asset quality. The 90-day NPL ratio remains low, but the rise in short-term delinquency among small and medium-sized enterprises deserves monitoring, as it may signal the beginning of a broader credit normalization cycle in Brazil.
Second, fee and insurance revenue growth has stalled. Management kept its 2026 guidance for this line at 2% to 5%, but weaker capital-markets activity and lower performance fees continue to weigh on the mix. A sustained rebound here would help offset pressure on net interest income.
Third, the bank’s efficiency and capital discipline remain key. ITUB argues that its elevated Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of roughly 12.7% is higher than necessary, and that profitability would look stronger if capital were normalized. How management deploys that excess capital—through dividends, buybacks, or growth—will be a central theme.
Finally, watch the integration of recent acquisitions and the bank’s ongoing technology and artificial-intelligence investments, which management frames as central to long-term cost control and customer experience. With guidance broadly intact and a lower expected tax rate, the focus shifts to whether the bank can preserve its industry-leading returns while managing a maturing credit cycle.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
ITUB sees MACD Histogram just turned negative
ITUB saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on October 19, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 42 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 19, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ITUB as a result. In 43 of 73 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
ITUB moved below its 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ITUB crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ITUB declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The 50-day moving average for ITUB moved above the 200-day moving average on October 14, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +4.31% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ITUB advanced for three days, in 219 of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
ITUB may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 215 of 292 cases where ITUB Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 74%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 22 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ITUB's P/B Ratio (0.363) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.276). P/E Ratio (1.691) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.599). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.274) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.002) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.806) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. ITUB’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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