GET DAILY SIGNALSN-able (NABL) Q3 Earnings: Revenue Tops Estimates as ARR Growth Slows to +4.7%
Key Takeaways
- Third-quarter revenue reached $137.5 million, topping the roughly $135 million consensus estimate and management's own guidance.
- Non-GAAP EPS of $0.12 beat estimates by $0.02 but declined from $0.13 in the prior-year quarter.
- Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) rose just 4.7% year over year to $553.1 million, a sharp slowdown from 14% growth a year earlier.
- Adjusted EBITDA held at a 31.7% margin, or $43.6 million.
- A $11.9 million income tax expense pushed the quarter to a GAAP net loss of $4.4 million.
- Fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $133 million to $134 million implies growth of only about 3% to 4% year over year.
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Why This Quarter Carries Extra Weight
N-able provides cloud-based software for managed service providers that support small and mid-sized businesses. This third-quarter 2026 report carried extra weight because it followed a difficult August, when the company cut full-year guidance, flagged softer renewal trends in Unified Endpoint Management and Endpoint Detection and Response products, and announced a 6% workforce reduction. Shares fell sharply after that update. As a result, investors approached this report looking for evidence that the growth reset had stabilized and that N-able's security and data-protection portfolio could begin to reaccelerate ARR growth. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Breaking Down the Reported Results
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, N-able reported total revenue of $137.5 million, up about 4% to 5% year over year from roughly $131 million a year earlier. The top line exceeded the approximately $135 million consensus and also cleared management's guidance range of $134.5 million to $135.5 million.
Non-GAAP earnings per share came in at $0.12, $0.02 above the $0.10 consensus estimate but down from $0.13 in the year-ago quarter. On a GAAP basis, the company recorded a net loss of $4.4 million, or $0.02 per share, driven by an $11.9 million income tax expense that overwhelmed a $7.5 million pre-tax profit.
Operating metrics showed a mixed picture. ARR reached $553.1 million, up 4.7% year over year on both a reported and constant-currency basis. Subscription revenue of $136.3 million grew 5.0% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA was $43.6 million, a 31.7% margin, and non-GAAP gross margin was 78.4%. GAAP operating income improved to $15.4 million from $10.9 million a year earlier. From what I see, the share repurchase activity—roughly 10.2 million shares for about $38.7 million—stands out as a notable use of capital during the period.
Looking ahead, management guided fourth-quarter revenue to $133 million to $134 million, slightly below the consensus of about $134.4 million, and full-year 2026 revenue to $541 million to $542 million.
How the Market Reacted
Sentiment heading into this report was cautious following the August guidance cut and the stock's sharp decline. The revenue and earnings beat offered some relief, but the continued deceleration in ARR growth—from 14% a year ago to 4.7%—and the below-consensus fourth-quarter revenue guide reinforced concerns that growth is still cooling. The tax-driven GAAP loss also complicated the read on profitability, even though adjusted margins remained solid. In my view, the key debate centered on whether the top-line beat signaled stabilization or simply reflected a bar that had already been lowered.
Looking Ahead: Key Factors to Monitor
Near term, the focus shifts to whether revenue growth stabilizes in the 3% to 4% range implied by fourth-quarter guidance or reaccelerates into 2027. Management has pointed to newer AI-driven and data-protection offerings—including Disaster Recovery as a Service and managed EDR—as potential growth catalysts, but these products remain early-stage and carry execution risk.
Cost discipline and profitability remain bright spots. The workforce reduction announced in August is expected to lower annual operating expenses by roughly $11 million to $13 million, supporting adjusted EBITDA margins near 31% to 32%. Investors will watch whether those savings materialize without undermining product investment or sales capacity.
Capital allocation is another factor to monitor. N-able repurchased about 5% of its shares outstanding and expanded its buyback authorization, while also drawing on a $75 million delayed-draw term loan after the quarter. Balance sheet leverage, free cash flow, and the pace of buybacks will matter alongside the core question of whether ARR growth can return to a double-digit pace. I’m watching this closely as the company balances these elements.
Leveraging Tickeron’s AI Screener in My Research
For my own research, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to filter stocks by technical patterns, fundamentals, and industry trends. It helps me quickly compare names like NABL against peers and spot potential setups without manual effort, which keeps my analysis efficient when reviewing earnings or scanning for new opportunities.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
NABL sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line
NABL saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on November 04, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 38 of the 47 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for NABL moved out of overbought territory on November 02, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 18 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 13 of the 18 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 72%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 47 of 66 cases where NABL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NABL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
NABL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +4.67% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NABL advanced for three days, in 183 of 293 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 74 of 122 cases where NABL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 61%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 4 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.155) is normal, around the industry mean (2.873). NABL has a moderately low P/E Ratio (-164.000) as compared to the industry average of (18.687). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.284). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.239) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.358) is also within normal values, averaging (139.965).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NABL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NABL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
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