GET DAILY SIGNALSRiot Platforms (RIOT) Q3 2026 Earnings: AI Lease Deal Highlights Infrastructure Shift
Key Takeaways
- Total revenue reached $181.4 million, up about 1% year over year and ahead of the roughly $160 million consensus estimate.
- GAAP net income was $4.0 million, or $0.01 per diluted share, versus analyst expectations of a loss.
- Adjusted EBITDA came in at $191.3 million, well above the roughly $54.8 million consensus.
- The company announced its largest-ever lease: a 15-year deal at its Corsicana, Texas campus worth approximately $28 billion in contract value.
- Riot produced 1,637 Bitcoin in the quarter and ended with about $950 million in total liquidity across cash and Bitcoin.
- Investors can find more information about the ticker's Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast on dedicated pages.
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Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Riot Platforms is moving from a pure Bitcoin miner toward a digital infrastructure provider for artificial intelligence workloads. This quarter's results offered a useful test of whether that transition is gaining ground while Bitcoin mining margins remain challenged. With average Bitcoin prices lower year over year, any revenue growth had to come mainly from the newer data center and engineering areas. The headline Corsicana lease also changed how many investors see the business: less as a miner exposed to crypto swings and more as a power-and-land story supported by long-term contracts. Execution on those projects now sits at the core of the investment thesis.
Reported Results
Riot posted third-quarter 2026 total revenue of $181.4 million, a modest 1% rise from $180.2 million a year earlier and above the consensus of roughly $160 million. Data center revenue contributed $18.4 million, while engineering revenue more than doubled year over year to about $47 million. Bitcoin mining revenue of $116.0 million came in slightly below expectations, reflecting softer Bitcoin prices despite higher output. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Net income reached $4.0 million, or $0.01 per diluted share, versus a consensus estimate that had called for a loss. Adjusted EBITDA was $191.3 million, down slightly from $197.2 million a year earlier but well ahead of the roughly $54.8 million consensus. The company produced 1,637 Bitcoin, up from 1,406 in the prior-year quarter, at a cost to mine of $39,265 per Bitcoin. Riot ended the period with about $950 million in cash and Bitcoin, after selling 20,264 Bitcoin year to date for roughly $1.5 billion to support data center construction.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Riot shares rose in pre-market trading on November 4, 2026, after the release, as investors focused on the Corsicana announcement more than the softer mining figures. The positive move reflected enthusiasm for the pivot toward long-term AI infrastructure contracts that provide steadier revenue visibility than volatile crypto mining. The $28 billion lease, together with earlier deals, brings contracted data center capacity to 1,151 megawatts and roughly $38 billion of long-term contracted revenue. Sentiment stayed measured, however, by execution risk on the phased buildout and the company's reliance on a small number of large technology tenants.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
The largest item to watch remains execution. The Corsicana lease requires 910 MW of critical IT capacity delivered in three phases: 400 MW by September 2027, 200 MW by January 2028, and 310 MW by July 2028. Any delay would push back the rent ramp that supports management's projected revenue growth from roughly $250 million in 2027 to $2.3 billion in 2029.
Financing is the second key factor. Riot plans to fund Corsicana largely with non-recourse project debt sized to contracted rent, backed by an estimated $950 million in current liquidity. Management has indicated it does not expect to issue equity for announced projects, so investors should track whether debt financing closes on the expected terms.
Finally, the Bitcoin mining business still matters in the near term. Because mining generated most of the current-quarter revenue, shifts in Bitcoin price, network hash rate, and power costs will continue to influence results until the data center leases reach full deployment. How well Riot balances these two businesses will shape investor perception in the quarters ahead.
Using Tickeron Tools for Deeper Analysis
From what I see, tools like Tickeron’s AI Trend Prediction Engine can help track how names such as RIOT move relative to broader sector trends. I find these resources useful when comparing fundamentals and technical signals across multiple holdings in a single view.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
RIOT in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026
The 10-day moving average for RIOT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 16 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
RIOT moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 50-day moving average for RIOT moved below the 200-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RIOT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
The Aroon Indicator for RIOT entered a downward trend on November 03, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where RIOT's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 21 of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 53 of 62 cases where RIOT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 03, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RIOT as a result. In 71 of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RIOT just turned positive on November 03, 2026. Looking at past instances where RIOT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
Following a +14.77% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RIOT advanced for three days, in 244 of 275 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 87 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.399) is normal, around the industry mean (3.199). P/E Ratio (-3.651) is within average values for comparable stocks, (6.873). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.800) is also within normal values, averaging (0.809). Dividend Yield (0.285) settles around the average of (8.657) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.504) is also within normal values, averaging (16.899).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. RIOT’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. RIOT’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
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