GET DAILY SIGNALSSilvaco (SVCO) Delivers Record Q3 Bookings Despite a Revenue Timing Shift
Key Takeaways
- Third-quarter bookings reached $19.3 million, above the midpoint of guidance and the company's strongest quarterly bookings so far in 2026.
- Revenue of $16.3 million landed slightly below the midpoint of guidance as certain semiconductor IP (intellectual property) milestones slipped out of the quarter.
- TCAD (Technology Computer-Aided Design) bookings grew 89% year over year to a Q3 record of $10.3 million, while IP bookings rose 193%, led by Mixel.
- GAAP net loss was $4.6 million, or $0.14 per share, while the non-GAAP net loss was $1.3 million, or $0.04 per share.
- Cash rose to $22 million, and net cash used in operating activities narrowed to $0.8 million—the best result since the company's IPO (initial public offering).
- Fourth-quarter guidance calls for revenue of roughly $22 million and a return to non-GAAP gross margin near 88%.
Why This Quarter Matters for Silvaco
Silvaco Group (SVCO) provides EDA software, semiconductor IP, and TCAD solutions for chip design and manufacturing. The third-quarter results offer a useful checkpoint on the company's path toward profitability following its restructuring efforts that reduced spending and improved gross margins. I have been watching whether the strong demand in TCAD and IP—particularly around AI-related manufacturing and the Mixel portfolio—can convert into steady revenue growth. Management's outlook for a record fourth quarter and mid-to-high-teens growth in 2027 makes this print an important signal.
Q3 Results in Detail
Revenue came in at $16.3 million, just below the guided midpoint and Wall Street's consensus of about $17.1 million, because some IP milestones shifted out of the period. On a GAAP basis the net loss was $4.6 million, or $0.14 per share, while the non-GAAP loss was $1.3 million, or $0.04 per share. Bookings provided the brighter picture at $19.3 million, beating the guidance midpoint and marking the best quarterly total of the year so far.
TCAD bookings rose 89% year over year to a quarterly record of $10.3 million, helped by a new FTCO win with a tier-one customer. IP bookings jumped 193%, driven by the Mixel portfolio. GAAP gross margin was 84% and non-GAAP gross margin 85.3%, down sequentially but improved from a year earlier. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
For the fourth quarter, management guided to bookings of $21 million (±10%), revenue of $22 million (±10%), non-GAAP gross margin near 88%, and non-GAAP operating expenses of $16 million (±5%).
Market Reaction and What Investors Are Weighing
Sentiment ahead of the report was mixed after mixed results in prior quarters and lumpy revenue patterns. The Q3 outcome followed the same script: solid bookings and demand momentum were offset by a top-line shortfall tied to timing. From what I see, the key question is whether the revenue miss is a one-time shift or something more persistent. Management's confident Q4 guidance, the low cash burn, and the strengthened balance sheet after the Micron note provide support, though near-term moves will depend on execution in the coming quarter.
Looking Ahead to Q4 and 2027
Management highlighted that revenue already booked early in Q4 is at a multi-year high for that stage of the period, supporting the $22 million midpoint that would mark a record quarter. Investors should monitor whether gross margins rebound to the guided 88% level, continued FTCO adoption with larger customers, and the growth trajectory of the Mixel IP business. On the cost side, the third straight quarter of rising unrestricted cash and the narrowest operating cash outflow since the IPO point to better discipline. Management expects mid-to-high-teens revenue growth for 2027, with new FTCO wins and sustained IP demand as important watchpoints.
Exploring AI Tools for Portfolio Insights
I regularly turn to Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals when evaluating names like this one after earnings, as it helps surface potential setups based on recent patterns and momentum. The platform lets me quickly compare technical signals across peers without manual screening, which has been useful for keeping an eye on volatility around these reports.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
SVCO sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line
SVCO saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on October 09, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 20 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 19 of the 20 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SVCO as a result. In 30 of 40 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
SVCO moved below its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SVCO crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 8 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SVCO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
The Aroon Indicator for SVCO entered a downward trend on November 03, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SVCO's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a +8.86% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SVCO advanced for three days, in 109 of 130 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
SVCO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 21 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.358) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.902). P/E Ratio (-8.314) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.583). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.072) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.815) is also within normal values, averaging (70.854).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. SVCO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SVCO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
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