GET DAILY SIGNALSSiteOne Landscape Supply (SITE) +24.6% Rebound Driven by Earnings Beat
Key Takeaways
- SiteOne Landscape Supply (SITE) climbed roughly 24.6% over the last 30 days, rebounding from about $89.56 to above $111 per share.
- The rally was driven primarily by a better-than-expected third-quarter 2026 earnings report and expanded profit margins.
- Management raised its full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA outlook to $425–$440 million and increased its share repurchase authorization by $500 million.
- The gain marks a sharp recovery from a multi-month low near $82 reached in early October after a prolonged demand-driven selloff.
- Post-earnings analyst activity was mostly supportive, with RBC Capital and KeyBanc reiterating Buy ratings on the stock.
- Underlying demand remains soft, with Organic Daily Sales down 1%, though October organic daily sales improved to roughly 2% growth.
- For additional detail, review SiteOne's Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages to explore the latest data and projections.
Company Overview and Market Position
SiteOne Landscape Supply (SITE) is the largest and only nationwide full-line wholesale distributor of landscape supplies in the United States, with an established presence in Canada. The company operates more than 690 branches and five distribution centers across 45 U.S. states and five Canadian provinces, offering roughly 180,000 SKUs spanning hardscapes, irrigation, fertilizers and control products, nursery goods, and outdoor lighting. Its customers are primarily residential and commercial landscape professionals who design, install, and maintain lawns, gardens, golf courses, and other outdoor spaces.
SiteOne estimates it holds only about 13% of a fragmented $36 billion wholesale landscaping distribution market, while remaining approximately three times larger than its nearest competitor. Its balanced end-market mix—about 66% maintenance, repair, and upgrade; 20% new residential construction; and 14% new commercial and recreational construction—provides resiliency across economic cycles. Investors follow the stock for its scale advantages, acquisition strategy, and margin expansion initiatives. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, SITE shares gained approximately 24.6%, rising from a closing price of $89.56 on October 2, 2026 to roughly $111.56. The advance accelerated in late October after the company reported third-quarter results on October 28, with the stock jumping from about $97 to above $110 within a few sessions.
The last quarter tells a more volatile story. Shares began the three-month stretch near $102 in early August, then declined steadily through September and into early October, touching an intraday low near $82 on October 7. That marked a decline of roughly 16–20% from the quarter's start. The subsequent earnings-driven rebound lifted shares back above $111, leaving the stock up roughly 9% over the full three months despite the sharp drawdown in between.
What Drove the Recent 30-Day Rally
The primary catalyst was the company's third-quarter 2026 earnings release on October 28. SiteOne reported GAAP earnings of $1.46 per share, above consensus estimates of roughly $1.40, while net sales rose 3% to $1.29 billion. Adjusted EBITDA increased 8% to $138.3 million, and Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 60 basis points to 10.7%. Gross margin improved 80 basis points to 35.5%, reflecting strong price realization and commercial execution despite softer volumes.
Sentiment was further supported by management's decision to increase the share repurchase authorization by $500 million, following $62.2 million of buybacks during the quarter. The company also noted that hot and dry weather in August and September pushed part of the fall season into October, with organic daily sales improving to approximately 2% growth early in the fourth quarter. Post-earnings, RBC Capital reiterated a Buy rating with a $124 price target and KeyBanc reiterated a Buy with a $135 target, while UBS and Barclays maintained Hold ratings. The sharp advance also reflected a recovery from depressed levels after the stock had lost roughly 17% year-to-date.
Performance Drivers Over the Full Quarter
The broader three-month trend was shaped by persistent softness in underlying end-market demand. Sales volume declined approximately 5% during the third quarter, more than offsetting a 4% price contribution, and Organic Daily Sales fell 1%. Hot, dry weather in key markets during August and September delayed fall-season activity, compounding near-term pressure on volume and weighing on the stock through early October.
The narrative began to shift as seasonal demand recovered in October and as the company delivered margin expansion despite the challenging backdrop. Continued progress on commercial initiatives, private-brand growth, digital sales, and cost discipline reinforced confidence in SiteOne's ability to outperform the market. The company also completed the acquisition of Patterson Nursery and added three companies year-to-date totaling roughly $125 million in trailing 12-month sales, supporting its long-term growth strategy.
Key Factors to Monitor Going Forward
Looking ahead, investors should monitor several factors. SiteOne's fiscal fourth quarter is historically slower, and the extra 53rd week in December 2026 is expected to reduce full-year Organic Daily Sales growth by about 80 basis points and Adjusted EBITDA by $4–$5 million. Weather patterns and the pace of residential and commercial construction activity will be key demand signals, as will the trajectory of pricing versus volume. The company's acquisition pipeline, margin execution toward its 2030 targets, and the continuation of share repurchases are additional items to track. Broader macroeconomic conditions, including interest rates and housing-related spending, may also influence demand in the landscaping distribution market. From what I see, this recovery sets up an interesting setup for the months ahead.
Exploring Tickeron AI Tools
In my ongoing research on names like SITE, I find it helpful to review Tickeron’s AI Trend Prediction Engine for additional context on price patterns and potential scenarios. The platform aggregates data across multiple strategies and timeframes, giving a clearer view of how various automated approaches are positioned around a given stock.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
SITE's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SITE turned positive on October 13, 2026. Looking at past instances where SITE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SITE as a result. In 51 of 75 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
SITE moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SITE crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +3.50% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SITE advanced for three days, in 184 of 268 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 98 of 145 cases where SITE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 68%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 14 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SITE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
SITE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SITE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 60 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.890) is normal, around the industry mean (4.203). P/E Ratio (30.439) is within average values for comparable stocks, (0.470). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.490) is also within normal values, averaging (2.538). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.441) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.829) is also within normal values, averaging (3.013).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SITE’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 64, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a distributer of commercial and residential landscape supplies
Industry ElectronicsDistributors
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