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AA vs CSTM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Alcoa Corporation (AA) vs. Constellium SE (CSTM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both AA and CSTM operate in the aluminum sector but differ in focus: AA emphasizes upstream mining and smelting, while CSTM specializes in downstream rolled products for end-markets like aerospace and automotive.
- CSTM has delivered stronger year-to-date performance at around 61% compared to AA's 25%, driven by momentum in value-added segments.
- AA boasts a larger market capitalization of approximately $17.6 billion versus CSTM's $4.1 billion, offering greater scale but higher exposure to commodity price swings.
- Recent aluminum supply concerns and elevated prices have supported both stocks, though CSTM benefits from a new $300 million share repurchase program.
- Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are comparable, with AA at 17.1 and CSTM at 15.8, reflecting similar valuations amid sector tailwinds.
- Tickeron's AI tools highlight CSTM's edge in short-term momentum patterns.
Introduction
Alcoa Corporation (AA) and Constellium SE (CSTM) represent key players in the aluminum industry, benefiting from global demand in transportation, packaging, and construction amid rising metal prices. This comparison analyzes their business models, recent market activity, and relative positioning, aiding investors tracking cyclical materials stocks. Traders focused on sector momentum or value opportunities may find insights into how upstream production contrasts with downstream fabrication in today's volatile environment.
AA Overview and Recent Performance
Alcoa Corporation (AA) is a major producer engaged in bauxite mining, alumina refining, and aluminum smelting across global operations. The company serves industrial markets including transportation and packaging through commodity-grade ingots and value-added products. In recent market activity, AA shares have experienced volatility, pulling back after quarterly results that showed adjusted earnings per share (EPS) below analyst expectations amid supply chain pressures and fluctuating alumina costs. Despite this, the stock has posted robust year-to-date gains of about 25%, supported by elevated aluminum prices and strategic energy generation assets. Sentiment reflects optimism for long-term demand from electrification trends, tempered by commodity exposure.
CSTM Overview and Recent Performance
Constellium SE (CSTM) focuses on designing and manufacturing rolled and extruded aluminum products for aerospace, automotive, packaging, and defense sectors. Operating through segments like Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products and Aerospace & Transportation, it targets high-margin, value-added applications. Recent weeks have seen strong share price momentum for CSTM, with gains exceeding 18% over the past month, fueled by aluminum supply tightness and a board-authorized $300 million share repurchase program. Year-to-date returns stand at roughly 61%, outperforming broader industrials, as investor sentiment highlights growth in automotive and aero demand alongside solid profitability metrics.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AA and CSTM share aluminum sector exposure but diverge in business models: AA's upstream operations tie performance closely to raw material costs and global supply dynamics, while CSTM's downstream emphasis on engineered products offers insulation via pricing power in aero and auto growth drivers. Recent momentum favors CSTM, with superior one-year returns amid buybacks, versus AA's earnings-related dip. Risk profiles reflect cyclicality—both sensitive to metal prices—but AA carries higher debt-to-equity and beta (1.70 vs. 1.43). Market sentiment leans positive for CSTM's value-added positioning, trading near 52-week highs, while AA offers scale advantages in a rebound scenario.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward CSTM with higher probability for near-term outperformance, based on consistent upward momentum, share repurchase catalyst, and relative strength in recent market activity. AA remains compelling for longer-term aluminum recovery plays, though post-earnings volatility suggests caution. Observable trends favor CSTM's stability and positioning.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AA is a Hold and CSTM is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AA’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileCSTM’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- CSTM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AA’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CSTM’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AA’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 7 bearish.
- CSTM’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
AA (@Aluminum) experienced а -9.06% price change this week, while CSTM (@Aluminum) price change was -0.32% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aluminum industry was -6.54%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -11.46%, and the average quarterly price growth was +39.46%.
Reported Earning Dates
AA is expected to report earnings on Jul 16, 2026.
CSTM is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aluminum (-6.54% weekly)Aluminum is widely used in the industries like construction, packaging and automotive sector. The segment has seen increased demand for the lightweight variety in automobiles in improving fuel efficiency. The U.S. aluminum industry generates nearly $71 billion a year in direct economic impact (according to The Aluminum Association). Arconic, Inc, Alcoa Corp and Kaiser Aluminum Corporation are major aluminum companies in the U.S.
| AA | CSTM | AA / CSTM | |
| Capitalization | 15.4B | 4.71B | 327% |
| EBITDA | 1.67B | 1.06B | 158% |
| Gain YTD | 10.160 | 83.554 | 12% |
| P/E Ratio | 14.96 | 11.05 | 135% |
| Revenue | 12.7B | 8.93B | 142% |
| Total Cash | 1.35B | 143M | 946% |
| Total Debt | 2.44B | 1.97B | 124% |
AA | CSTM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 64 | 85 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 24 Undervalued | 63 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 43 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 53 | 21 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 37 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 11 | 95 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AA's Valuation (24) in the Aluminum industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CSTM (63) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that AA’s stock grew somewhat faster than CSTM’s over the last 12 months.
CSTM's Profit vs Risk Rating (43) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AA (77) in the Aluminum industry. This means that CSTM’s stock grew somewhat faster than AA’s over the last 12 months.
CSTM's SMR Rating (21) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is in the same range as AA (53) in the Aluminum industry. This means that CSTM’s stock grew similarly to AA’s over the last 12 months.
CSTM's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is in the same range as AA (44) in the Aluminum industry. This means that CSTM’s stock grew similarly to AA’s over the last 12 months.
AA's P/E Growth Rating (11) in the Aluminum industry is significantly better than the same rating for CSTM (95) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that AA’s stock grew significantly faster than CSTM’s over the last 12 months.
| AA | CSTM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 81% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 68% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 79% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 22 days ago 80% | 1 day ago 76% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 8 days ago 70% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 78% |
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CSTM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CSTM has been loosely correlated with KALU. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CSTM jumps, then KALU could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CSTM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSTM | 100% | +1.76% | ||
| KALU - CSTM | 65% Loosely correlated | +1.07% | ||
| CENX - CSTM | 39% Loosely correlated | -4.24% | ||
| AA - CSTM | 9% Poorly correlated | -1.72% |