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AAL vs LUV
Which Stock Would AI Choose? American Airlines (AAL) vs. Southwest Airlines (LUV) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- American Airlines (AAL) posted record Q3 revenue but swung to a loss on surging jet-fuel costs, while Southwest Airlines (LUV) delivered profitable growth and margin expansion.
- LUV is generating positive earnings, a dividend, and double-digit one-year gains, whereas AAL carries heavy leverage and negative book value.
- Both carriers face the same fuel-price headwind, but their relative positioning diverges sharply on profitability, balance-sheet strength, and momentum.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on trend consistency, earnings stability, and market positioning, Tickeron's AI currently favors LUV over AAL in this comparison.
- For deeper insight, explore AAL Major News and AAL Today's Price Move, plus LUV Major News and LUV Today's Price Move.
- To see which automated strategies are best suited to current conditions, visit the Trending AI Robots page.
Introduction
American Airlines Group (AAL) and Southwest Airlines (LUV) are two of the most closely watched names in U.S. commercial aviation, yet they represent very different business profiles. AAL is a global network carrier with a hub-and-spoke model and heavy international exposure, while LUV is the largest U.S. domestic carrier by passengers boarded, built around a point-to-point, all-Boeing 737 fleet. This stock comparison is relevant to investors and traders evaluating relative performance within a sector that is simultaneously benefiting from resilient travel demand and pressured by elevated fuel costs. Understanding how each airline converts revenue into earnings and withstands cost shocks can clarify which name offers stronger market positioning in the current environment.
AAL Overview and Recent Performance
American Airlines Group operates a global network spanning the United States, Latin America, the Atlantic, and the Pacific, and it is among the world's largest airlines by fleet and passengers. In recent weeks, AAL has delivered a mixed but instructive picture. The company reported record quarterly revenue of roughly $16.3 billion, up about 19% year over year, supported by strong premium demand, corporate travel, and its AAdvantage loyalty program. However, a sharp rise in jet-fuel costs — up nearly $1.9 billion versus the prior year — more than offset that top-line strength, pushing the carrier to a net loss for the quarter and prompting management to cut its full-year outlook.
Sentiment has been shaped by this tension between robust demand and deteriorating profitability. The stock has traded in a relatively narrow range in recent sessions, with near-term moves often tracking oil prices more than operating fundamentals. Analysts have trimmed price targets while largely maintaining constructive ratings, reflecting the view that revenue quality is improving but that the balance sheet, which carries substantial debt and negative book value, leaves limited room for error if fuel prices remain elevated.
LUV Overview and Recent Performance
Southwest Airlines is the largest U.S. domestic air carrier by passengers boarded, operating an all-Boeing 737 fleet across a point-to-point network. In recent weeks, LUV has shown notably stronger financial momentum than AAL. The company reported record quarterly operating revenue of approximately $8.4 billion, up about 21% year over year, with adjusted earnings per share rising roughly 500% versus the prior-year period. Critically, Southwest expanded its adjusted operating margin year over year even while absorbing a fuel-cost headwind, a distinction management noted among major U.S. carriers.
This performance reflects an ongoing commercial transformation. Having introduced assigned seating, extra-legroom options, and a basic-economy fare, Southwest is trading some volume for higher fares and better unit revenue. Loyalty enhancements, premium lounge plans, and fleet connectivity investments are further reshaping its economics. Sentiment has improved accordingly, with the stock posting a strong one-year gain and a positive year-to-date return, supported by profitability, a dividend yield near 1.6%, and a healthier, lower-leverage balance sheet than AAL.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page offers a curated view of automated trading strategies that are most suitable for current market conditions. Tickeron maintains hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, each with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance record, and set of underlying symbols. Rather than presenting every available bot, the page highlights only the strongest and most relevant performers for the present environment, making it easier for traders to filter signal from noise. Because each bot operates with distinct risk parameters and statistical profiles, the selection can shift as market conditions evolve. Exploring the Trending AI Robots section can help investors identify automated approaches aligned with names like AAL and LUV.
Head-to-Head Comparison
These two carriers diverge most clearly on profitability and capital structure. LUV is generating positive net income, expanding margins, and returning capital through a dividend, while AAL is loss-making with elevated debt, negative book value, and thinner interest coverage. In terms of business model, AAL's international and premium mix offers greater revenue upside when demand is strong but exposes it more to global and fuel volatility. LUV's domestic focus and simpler fleet provide cost discipline, though its fare-driven transformation is still maturing.
On growth drivers, AAL leans on premium seating, loyalty, and international expansion; LUV is monetizing a new assigned-seating and basic-economy model. Risk factors differ too: AAL's primary vulnerability is leverage and fuel sensitivity, whereas LUV faces execution risk as its pricing makeover converges with legacy carriers. Recent momentum and market sentiment currently favor LUV, which shows stronger relative performance and steadier earnings, while AAL remains a higher-risk, lower-multiple turnaround story.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Weighing observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings stability, balance-sheet strength, and catalyst quality, Tickeron's AI would likely favor LUV in the current environment. The airline's profitable results, margin expansion despite higher fuel costs, positive relative momentum, and healthier capital structure offer a more stable trend profile than AAL, whose record revenue is being consumed by cost pressures and leverage. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: a sustained drop in fuel prices could shift the balance toward AAL given its higher operational sensitivity to that variable. Nonetheless, on the current data, LUV presents the more consistent risk-reward positioning of the two.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AAL is a Buy and LUV is a StrongBuy.
AAL's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AAL turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where AAL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AAL's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 29 of 41 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AAL as a result. In 60 of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
AAL moved above its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AAL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Following a +9.51% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AAL advanced for three days, in 213 of 284 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 50-day moving average for AAL moved below the 200-day moving average on October 12, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AAL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
AAL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for AAL entered a downward trend on October 29, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 6 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: AAL's P/B Ratio (-2.197) is slightly lower than the industry average of (2.379). AAL has a moderately low P/E Ratio (-26.898) as compared to the industry average of (6.762). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.114) is also within normal values, averaging (2.252). Dividend Yield (0.030) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.144) is also within normal values, averaging (0.529).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 41 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AAL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AAL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock worse than average.
LUV in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026
The 10-day moving average for LUV crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on LUV as a result. In 64 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LUV just turned positive on October 23, 2026. Looking at past instances where LUV's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
LUV moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +0.39% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LUV advanced for three days, in 223 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for LUV moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 28 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 23 of the 28 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 82%.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LUV declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
LUV broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. LUV’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 67 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 70 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.071) is normal, around the industry mean (2.379). P/E Ratio (27.104) is within average values for comparable stocks, (6.762). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.200) is also within normal values, averaging (2.252). Dividend Yield (0.016) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.683) is also within normal values, averaging (0.529).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. LUV’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock worse than average.
AAL | LUV | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 44 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 6 Undervalued | 70 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 16 | 67 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 22 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 99 | 89 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 41 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AAL's Valuation (6) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LUV (70). This means that AAL’s stock grew somewhat faster than LUV’s over the last 12 months.
AAL's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as LUV (100). This means that AAL’s stock grew similarly to LUV’s over the last 12 months.
AAL's SMR Rating (16) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LUV (67). This means that AAL’s stock grew somewhat faster than LUV’s over the last 12 months.
LUV's Price Growth Rating (22) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as AAL (46). This means that LUV’s stock grew similarly to AAL’s over the last 12 months.
LUV's P/E Growth Rating (89) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as AAL (99). This means that LUV’s stock grew similarly to AAL’s over the last 12 months.
| AAL | LUV | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 82% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 63% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 69% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 1 day ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 24 days ago 74% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | N/A |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AAL’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while LUV’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AAL’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- LUV’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AAL’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LUV’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AAL’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 5 bearish.
- LUV’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AAL (@Airlines) experienced а +10.06% price change this week, while LUV (@Airlines) price change was +6.61% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Airlines industry was +5.74%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +8.91%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.25%.
Reported Earning Dates
AAL is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
LUV is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Airlines (+5.74% weekly)Airlines industry comprises passenger air transportation, including scheduled and non-scheduled routes. This can include charter airlines, as well as regular commuter ones. Discount pricing and the rise of low-cost carriers over recent decades have expanded the industry by making its services accessible to a much larger global population, compared to the older days when airline travel was a relative luxury for many people in the world. Delta Air Lines Inc., Southwest Airlines Co and United Continental Holdings, Inc. are some of the airlines with the largest stock market capitalizations in the U.S.
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AAL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AAL has been closely correlated with DAL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AAL jumps, then DAL could also see price increases.
LUV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LUV has been closely correlated with DAL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LUV jumps, then DAL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To LUV | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUV | 100% | +0.35% | ||
| DAL - LUV | 76% Closely correlated | -0.95% | ||
| AAL - LUV | 76% Closely correlated | -0.07% | ||
| ULCC - LUV | 61% Loosely correlated | -0.12% | ||
| VLRS - LUV | 56% Loosely correlated | +0.81% | ||
| LTM - LUV | 53% Loosely correlated | -1.44% | ||
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