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AAL vs LUV
Which Stock Would AI Choose? American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) vs. Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AAL has delivered stronger year-to-date (YTD) performance at nearly 20%, outpacing LUV's 1.6% gain amid recent market volatility.
- Both airlines face upcoming Q1 2026 earnings reports, with expectations of revenue growth but potential losses influenced by fuel costs and demand trends.
- LUV exhibits a larger market capitalization of $20.5 billion versus AAL's $8.1 billion, reflecting greater scale.
- Analyst price targets suggest upside for both, with AAL at an average of $14.94 and LUV at $44.21.
- Recent merger speculation negatively impacted AAL, while LUV advances transformation initiatives targeting higher earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT).
- Easing oil prices in recent weeks have boosted sector sentiment, benefiting airline stocks' relative performance.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines AAL, a leading network carrier, and LUV, a prominent low-cost carrier, two key players in the U.S. airline industry. Investors and traders tracking the transportation sector may find value in understanding their relative performance, business models, and market positioning. Amid fluctuating fuel costs, capacity adjustments, and demand recovery, this analysis highlights contrasts in momentum, valuation, and growth drivers. With both stocks sensitive to macroeconomic shifts like oil prices and travel trends, the comparison aids in evaluating sector exposure and potential trade-offs in the current market environment.
AAL Overview and Recent Performance
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) operates as one of the world's largest airlines by passengers carried, employing a hub-and-spoke model with extensive domestic and international routes. In recent market activity, AAL shares have traded around $12.27, within a 52-week range of $8.96 to $16.50, reflecting volatility tied to fuel prices and economic uncertainty. The stock posted strong YTD gains of 19.96%, driven by sector rebounds, though trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands high at 72.18 due to modest trailing twelve months (TTM) earnings per share (EPS) of $0.17; forward P/E is more attractive at 7.35. Sentiment shifted negatively in recent weeks from denied merger rumors with United Airlines and anticipation of Q1 earnings on April 23, projecting revenue growth but losses amid elevated jet fuel costs. Easing crude oil prices have provided some uplift to performance.
LUV Overview and Recent Performance
Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) focuses on point-to-point low-cost domestic flights, known for operational efficiency and customer loyalty. Shares recently closed near $41.82, within a 52-week range of $24.07 to $55.11, with YTD performance at 1.62%. Trailing P/E is 52.94, supported by TTM EPS of $0.79, while forward P/E is 10.74. Recent weeks saw stock pressure ahead of Q1 earnings on April 23, with forecasts for revenue of $7.22 billion and EPS of $0.45, alongside updates to loyalty programs and digital enhancements under new leadership. Positive factors include transformation plans aiming for $4.3 billion in incremental EBIT by year-end and benefits from declining oil prices, bolstering investor sentiment despite modest recent momentum.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AAL and LUV operate in the competitive airline sector but differ in business models: AAL's hub-centric network supports international growth, while LUV's point-to-point low-cost approach emphasizes domestic efficiency. Growth drivers contrast with LUV targeting ambitious EBIT expansion through fleet modernization and revenue initiatives, versus AAL's focus on cost controls amid capacity constraints. Recent momentum favors AAL's YTD surge, but LUV shows superior long-term stability with higher EPS and market cap. Risk factors include AAL's higher beta (1.25 vs. 1.18) and merger-related volatility, while both face fuel exposure—mitigated recently by oil declines. Market sentiment tilts toward value in AAL (superior Tickeron SMR rating) but stability in LUV, highlighting trade-offs in momentum versus scale.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors AAL in this matchup, based on stronger recent trend consistency, undervalued forward metrics, and a superior growth rating relative to LUV. Factors like YTD outperformance and analyst upside potential position AAL for higher probability of near-term gains, though LUV offers greater stability amid sector catalysts like easing fuel costs.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AAL is a Buy and LUV is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AAL’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileLUV’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AAL’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- LUV’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AAL’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LUV’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AAL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- LUV’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AAL (@Airlines) experienced а +4.01% price change this week, while LUV (@Airlines) price change was +5.40% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Airlines industry was +2.47%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +10.99%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.01%.
Reported Earning Dates
AAL is expected to report earnings on Jul 16, 2026.
LUV is expected to report earnings on Jul 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Airlines (+2.47% weekly)Airlines industry comprises passenger air transportation, including scheduled and non-scheduled routes. This can include charter airlines, as well as regular commuter ones. Discount pricing and the rise of low-cost carriers over recent decades have expanded the industry by making its services accessible to a much larger global population, compared to the older days when airline travel was a relative luxury for many people in the world. Delta Air Lines Inc., Southwest Airlines Co and United Continental Holdings, Inc. are some of the airlines with the largest stock market capitalizations in the U.S.
| AAL | LUV | AAL / LUV | |
| Capitalization | 10.7B | 24.2B | 44% |
| EBITDA | 2.05B | 2.72B | 75% |
| Gain YTD | 4.892 | 18.541 | 26% |
| P/E Ratio | 51.87 | 32.38 | 160% |
| Revenue | 56B | 28.9B | 194% |
| Total Cash | 7.29B | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 34.9B | 6.4B | 546% |
AAL | LUV | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 43 | 40 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 64 Fair valued | 26 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 15 | 72 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 7 | 10 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 3 | 61 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
LUV's Valuation (26) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AAL (64). This means that LUV’s stock grew somewhat faster than AAL’s over the last 12 months.
LUV's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as AAL (100). This means that LUV’s stock grew similarly to AAL’s over the last 12 months.
AAL's SMR Rating (15) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LUV (72). This means that AAL’s stock grew somewhat faster than LUV’s over the last 12 months.
AAL's Price Growth Rating (7) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as LUV (10). This means that AAL’s stock grew similarly to LUV’s over the last 12 months.
AAL's P/E Growth Rating (3) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LUV (61). This means that AAL’s stock grew somewhat faster than LUV’s over the last 12 months.
| AAL | LUV | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 68% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 77% | 21 days ago 75% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 72% |
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AAL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AAL has been closely correlated with UAL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AAL jumps, then UAL could also see price increases.
LUV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LUV has been closely correlated with AAL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LUV jumps, then AAL could also see price increases.