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ACGL vs HIG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) vs. The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- HIG has outperformed ACGL in recent market activity, with year-to-date gains of approximately 2% compared to ACGL's flat performance.
- ACGL trades at a lower price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.29 versus HIG's 9.46, suggesting a relatively cheaper valuation on earnings.
- HIG offers a forward dividend yield of about 1.79%, providing income stability absent in ACGL's recent profile.
- Both stocks have similar market capitalizations around $35 billion, operating in the property-casualty insurance sector amid rising costs and competitive pressures.
- Recent earnings show HIG with revenue growth and net income up 36% year-over-year despite an EPS miss, while ACGL anticipates strong quarterly results.
- Tickeron AI signals are mixed for both, but HIG exhibits stronger momentum in recent 30-day gains.
Introduction
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) and The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG) are prominent players in the property-casualty insurance sector, offering exposure to underwriting, investments, and risk management. This comparison analyzes their recent performance, valuations, and market positioning amid fluctuating interest rates and catastrophe risks. Investors seeking diversified insurance holdings or traders monitoring sector momentum will find insights into relative strengths, such as growth trajectories and sentiment drivers, to inform portfolio decisions in the current environment.
ACGL Overview and Recent Performance
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL), a Bermuda-based specialty insurer and reinsurer, focuses on high-margin lines like property, casualty, and mortgage. In recent weeks, its stock has traded around $96, within a 52-week range of $82 to $103, reflecting modest year-to-date gains of 0.28% and 4.44% over one year. Performance has been mixed, with dips amid broader market upticks and gains during dips, influenced by anticipation of strong Q1 earnings featuring projected revenue growth from improved underwriting and net premiums earned. Analyst targets average $109, with neutral to buy ratings, though recent price target adjustments reflect caution on expenses. Sentiment is buoyed by technical signals like a bullish MACD crossover and Aroon uptrend, tempered by a move below the 50-day moving average.
HIG Overview and Recent Performance
The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG), a U.S.-based diversified insurer, provides personal, commercial, and group benefits coverage with emphasis on property-casualty lines. Recently, shares hovered near $134, in a 52-week range of $119 to $145, delivering year-to-date returns of 2.01% and 14.64% annually. In recent market activity, the stock rose over 6% in the prior 30 days before a post-earnings pullback, driven by Q1 results showing $7.23 billion in revenue and 36% year-over-year net income growth to $866 million, offset by an EPS miss due to elevated costs and competition. Pricing discipline and technology investments supported core earnings. Analysts maintain overweight ratings with targets around $150, while technicals show a bullish 10-day MA crossover but recent MACD negativity.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ACGL emphasizes global specialty and reinsurance with higher return on invested capital (ROIC) around 5.1%, contrasting HIG's broader U.S. personal and commercial focus with 4.6% ROIC. Growth drivers differ: ACGL benefits from premium rate hikes in niche areas, while HIG leverages investment income and group benefits stability. Recent momentum favors HIG with superior one-year returns and dividend support, versus ACGL's flatter trajectory ahead of earnings. Risk factors include catastrophe losses for both, but ACGL's Bermuda structure offers tax efficiency at the cost of regulatory scrutiny; HIG faces U.S. competition intensity. Sector exposure overlaps in property-casualty, yet market sentiment tilts toward HIG's reported resilience amid cost pressures, with ACGL poised for potential catalysts.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward HIG with higher probability due to consistent recent upward trends, stronger year-to-date and one-year performance, and dividend backing, despite mixed technicals. ACGL shows promise from valuation and upcoming earnings but lags in momentum stability. Observable factors like HIG's 30-day gains and positive pattern odds position it favorably in probabilistic terms for the near term.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ACGL is a Buy and HIG is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ACGL’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileHIG’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ACGL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- HIG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ACGL’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while HIG’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ACGL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- HIG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ACGL (@Multi-Line Insurance) experienced а +2.76% price change this week, while HIG (@Multi-Line Insurance) price change was +2.07% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Multi-Line Insurance industry was +0.37%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.87%, and the average quarterly price growth was -3.31%.
Reported Earning Dates
ACGL is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
HIG is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Multi-Line Insurance (+0.37% weekly)A multi-line insurance contract bundles together exposures to risk and covers them under a single contract. For providers of such policies, the bundle is a potential risk diversification strategy since their exposure gets spread over several factors, which helps them mitigate a financial burden if a catastrophic event were to occur. Other potential benefits include getting more premiums from including more than one type of insurance in a bundle, and getting a competitive edge by procuring multiple insurance contracts with a customer. Examples of companies in this industry are Berkshire Hathaway (which owns several insurance companies), Chubb Limited, American International Group, Inc. and Sun Life Financial Inc.
| ACGL | HIG | ACGL / HIG | |
| Capitalization | 33.2B | 36.3B | 91% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | -1.043 | -3.109 | 34% |
| P/E Ratio | 7.08 | 9.11 | 78% |
| Revenue | 19.1B | 28.5B | 67% |
| Total Cash | 12.2B | 21.8B | 56% |
| Total Debt | 2.73B | 4.37B | 62% |
ACGL | HIG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 65 | 21 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 61 Fair valued | 41 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 19 | 4 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 49 | 50 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 75 | 78 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HIG's Valuation (41) in the Multi Line Insurance industry is in the same range as ACGL (61) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry. This means that HIG’s stock grew similarly to ACGL’s over the last 12 months.
HIG's Profit vs Risk Rating (4) in the Multi Line Insurance industry is in the same range as ACGL (19) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry. This means that HIG’s stock grew similarly to ACGL’s over the last 12 months.
ACGL's SMR Rating (49) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as HIG (50) in the Multi Line Insurance industry. This means that ACGL’s stock grew similarly to HIG’s over the last 12 months.
ACGL's Price Growth Rating (57) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as HIG (58) in the Multi Line Insurance industry. This means that ACGL’s stock grew similarly to HIG’s over the last 12 months.
ACGL's P/E Growth Rating (75) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as HIG (78) in the Multi Line Insurance industry. This means that ACGL’s stock grew similarly to HIG’s over the last 12 months.
| ACGL | HIG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 46% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 57% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 42% | 2 days ago 42% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 47% | 8 days ago 44% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 51% |
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ACGL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ACGL has been closely correlated with ORI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 73% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ACGL jumps, then ORI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ACGL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACGL | 100% | +1.29% | ||
| ORI - ACGL | 73% Closely correlated | +1.13% | ||
| HIG - ACGL | 69% Closely correlated | +0.75% | ||
| AIG - ACGL | 49% Loosely correlated | -0.51% | ||
| PLGO - ACGL | 44% Loosely correlated | +1.49% | ||
| GSHD - ACGL | 37% Loosely correlated | +8.41% | ||
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