Advertisement
AFL vs CNO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Aflac (AFL) vs. CNO Financial Group (CNO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Aflac (AFL) is a large-cap supplemental insurer with a dominant Japanese franchise and a sizable U.S. voluntary-benefits business, while CNO Financial Group (CNO) is a smaller middle-market life, health, and annuity insurer focused on U.S. pre-retirees and retirees.
- Recent quarters show contrasting momentum: CNO has posted consecutive quarters of record new annualized premium (NAP) growth, whereas Aflac has faced flatter revenue and softer reported earnings despite strong product sales in Japan.
- Both companies return significant capital to shareholders, but Aflac operates at a much larger scale, with a market capitalization several times that of CNO.
- CNO has demonstrated more consistent near-term sales and earnings-per-share (EPS) momentum, while Aflac's relative performance has been tempered by premium declines in Japan and margin pressure.
- Risk profiles differ: Aflac carries meaningful foreign-exchange and Japan-market concentration, while CNO is more sensitive to U.S. middle-income consumer health and Medicare-related trends.
Introduction
Investors comparing AFL and CNO are effectively weighing two very different plays on the insurance sector. Aflac is a diversified supplemental health and life insurer with deep roots in Japan and a well-known U.S. brand, while CNO Financial Group serves the middle-income American market through life insurance, supplemental health, and annuity products. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors seeking to understand how scale, geographic exposure, and growth momentum shape relative performance and market positioning. Both names sit within the same broad industry but respond to different catalysts, making the contrast useful for portfolio construction, sector rotation decisions, and momentum analysis.
AFL Overview and Recent Performance
AFL, or Aflac Incorporated, is a supplemental health and life insurance company that generates the majority of its revenue in Japan, with a substantial U.S. operation offering accident, disability, dental, vision, and hospital-indemnity products. In recent market activity, Aflac's shares have traded around the low-$110s, reflecting a large-cap profile with a market capitalization near $60 billion.
Recent quarterly results have been mixed. Full-year 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) reached $7.49, supported by record share repurchases of roughly $3.5 billion and a dividend increase of 5.2% announced for early 2026. Aflac Japan delivered notable sales growth, up about 16% for 2025, driven by new cancer and medical products such as Miraito. However, net earned premiums in Japan have continued to decline modestly, and the U.S. segment has seen flat-to-negative growth in traditional voluntary benefits alongside a higher benefit ratio. These factors have kept analyst sentiment broadly neutral, with several firms maintaining Market Perform or Equal-Weight ratings, and have tempered near-term price momentum.
CNO Overview and Recent Performance
CNO, or CNO Financial Group, develops and markets health insurance, life insurance, and annuities, primarily targeting middle-income pre-retirees and retirees in the United States. The company is far smaller than Aflac, with a market capitalization of roughly $4 billion, and its shares have traded in the mid-$40s after reaching an all-time high.
Recent results have shown notably stronger momentum. CNO reported its 14th consecutive quarter of sales growth and a full-year 2025 increase in total new annualized premium (NAP) of about 15%. Operating EPS rose 11% to $4.40, and operating return on equity (ROE) improved to 11.4%, excluding significant items. Medicare Supplement sales surged, annuity collected premiums grew, and producing agent counts expanded for a 12th straight quarter. The company also raised its quarterly dividend for a 13th consecutive year. Offsetting these strengths are a softer Medicare Advantage environment, a modest 2026 operating-EPS guidance range, and margin compression tied to higher benefits and expenses.
Trending AI Robots
For investors who want a systematic view of which names are attracting momentum, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page offers a curated selection of AI trading bots. Tickeron hosts hundreds of AI Trading Bots that monitor thousands of tickers, each with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance history, and target list of securities. Because not every bot suits every market environment, only the strongest and most relevant performers earn a place in this curated section. The platform highlights bots spanning short-term, swing, and longer-horizon strategies, allowing traders to compare statistics and match a bot's approach to current conditions. Browsing the Trending AI Robots list can help you identify which strategies are currently aligned with the market.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental contrast between these two insurers is scale and geography. AFL is a mature, global franchise heavily concentrated in Japan, where a large in-force block and high persistency generate steady cash flow but limited premium growth. CNO is a domestically focused growth story, expanding through captive distribution, worksite benefits, and Medicare Supplement demand as a large cohort of Americans ages into retirement.
Growth drivers also diverge. Aflac's catalysts center on new product launches and distribution expansion in Japan and a push into U.S. group benefits, while its headwinds include yen exposure and flat traditional voluntary sales. CNO's momentum is built on record NAP growth, rising agent productivity, and annuity inflows, with risks tied to middle-income consumer sensitivity and a shifting Medicare Advantage landscape.
On market sentiment, CNO has displayed more consistent upward momentum in recent quarters, supported by repeated beats on operating EPS and a rising book value per share. Aflac's relative performance has been more subdued, as premium declines and margin compression weigh on enthusiasm despite strong capital returns. Risk profiles reflect this: Aflac investors assume currency and Japan concentration risk, while CNO investors assume U.S. consumer-credit and healthcare-policy risk.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, sales momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely tilt in favor of CNO in the current environment. CNO has demonstrated a longer streak of consecutive growth in new annualized premium, improving operating ROE, and repeated earnings beats, characteristics that trend-following models tend to reward. Aflac remains a fundamentally stable, well-capitalized company with strong shareholder returns, but its flatter premium trajectory and softer recent momentum make it less attractive from a pure trend and catalyst standpoint. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, and the balance could shift if Aflac's Japanese product launches translate into sustained premium growth or if CNO's consumer-sensitive segments face renewed pressure.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AFL is a Buy and CNO is a Buy.
AFL's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AFL turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where AFL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AFL as a result. In 47 of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
AFL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AFL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 7 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 44%.
Following a +2.00% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AFL advanced for three days, in 199 of 368 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for AFL moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 40 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 18 of the 40 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 45%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AFL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 38%.
AFL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for AFL entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 61, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AFL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 77 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.993) is normal, around the industry mean (1.310). P/E Ratio (12.944) is within average values for comparable stocks, (19.517). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.060) is also within normal values, averaging (0.463). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.047) among similar stocks. AFL's P/S Ratio (3.313) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.303).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
CNO's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CNO turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where CNO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CNO as a result. In 57 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Following a +1.17% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CNO advanced for three days, in 207 of 332 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
CNO moved below its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CNO crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 5 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 33%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CNO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
CNO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for CNO entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 61, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CNO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 56 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.916) is normal, around the industry mean (1.310). P/E Ratio (18.128) is within average values for comparable stocks, (19.517). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.210) is also within normal values, averaging (0.463). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.047) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.156) is also within normal values, averaging (1.303).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
AFL | CNO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 22 | 42 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 77 Overvalued | 56 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 3 | 4 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 94 | 94 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 87 | 18 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CNO's Valuation (56) in the Life Or Health Insurance industry is in the same range as AFL (77). This means that CNO’s stock grew similarly to AFL’s over the last 12 months.
AFL's Profit vs Risk Rating (3) in the Life Or Health Insurance industry is in the same range as CNO (4). This means that AFL’s stock grew similarly to CNO’s over the last 12 months.
AFL's SMR Rating (94) in the Life Or Health Insurance industry is in the same range as CNO (94). This means that AFL’s stock grew similarly to CNO’s over the last 12 months.
CNO's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Life Or Health Insurance industry is in the same range as AFL (47). This means that CNO’s stock grew similarly to AFL’s over the last 12 months.
CNO's P/E Growth Rating (18) in the Life Or Health Insurance industry is significantly better than the same rating for AFL (87). This means that CNO’s stock grew significantly faster than AFL’s over the last 12 months.
| AFL | CNO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 45% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 45% | 3 days ago 51% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 56% | 3 days ago 47% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 43% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 54% | 4 days ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 25 days ago 38% | 26 days ago 47% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 43% | 3 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 44% | 3 days ago 42% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AFL’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while CNO’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AFL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- CNO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AFL’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CNO’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AFL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- CNO’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
AFL (@Life/Health Insurance) experienced а +0.45% price change this week, while CNO (@Life/Health Insurance) price change was -1.92% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Life/Health Insurance industry was +0.70%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.55%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.55%.
Reported Earning Dates
AFL is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
CNO is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Life/Health Insurance (+0.70% weekly)Life insurance companies mainly sell policies that pay a death benefit as a lump sum upon the death of the insured to their beneficiaries. Life insurance policies may be sold as term life, (which guarantees payment of a stated death benefit and expires at the end of a specified term) or permanent /typically whole life (which is more expensive but lasts a lifetime and carries a cash accumulation component). Life insurance firms may also sell long-term disability policies that help to replace the insured individual’s income if they become sick or disabled. Health insurance, on the other hand, helps pay for medical expenses. Anthem, Inc., MetLife, Inc. and Aflac Incorporated are some of the largest U.S. companies in this industry.
Advertisement
CNO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CNO has been loosely correlated with LNC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 63% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CNO jumps, then LNC could also see price increases.