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ALL vs PGR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Allstate (ALL) vs. Progressive (PGR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ALL has delivered a sharp earnings turnaround, with a dramatically improved combined ratio (a measure of claims and expenses per $100 of premium) and shares outperforming year to date.
- PGR remains the larger, more auto-focused franchise and recently became the largest U.S. personal auto insurer by direct premiums, yet its stock has lagged over the past year.
- Both companies are property and casualty (P&C) insurers, but Allstate carries greater homeowners and catastrophe exposure, while Progressive is more concentrated in personal auto.
- Recent momentum favors Allstate on earnings surprises and share-price performance, while Progressive's premium valuation has faced pressure.
- Risk profiles differ: Allstate is more sensitive to weather-related catastrophe losses, while Progressive faces a maturing auto pricing cycle.
Introduction
Allstate and Progressive are two of the largest publicly traded property and casualty insurers in the United States, yet they have recently moved in notably different directions in the market. This stock comparison is relevant for investors and traders weighing a recovering, diversified insurer against an industry leader whose fundamentals remain strong but whose shares have underperformed. Because the two companies compete directly in personal auto insurance while diverging in homeowners and property exposure, their relative performance offers a useful lens on market positioning, catastrophe risk, and the ongoing shift toward technology and AI-driven underwriting across the sector.
ALL Overview and Recent Performance
The Allstate Corporation is a diversified insurer best known for auto and homeowners coverage, along with a large protection-services segment spanning product warranties and identity protection. After absorbing heavy losses in 2022 and 2023 from inflation-driven claims costs, Allstate has executed a convincing recovery. In recent quarters, the company posted adjusted earnings well above analyst expectations, propelled by improved underwriting margins and a combined ratio that fell sharply from roughly 97 to the low-80s. Premium growth, a record number of policies in force, and rising net investment income have reinforced the turnaround, and management has expanded capital returns through an elevated dividend and share repurchases. Over recent weeks, shares have traded near multi-year highs, with a valuation that remains comparatively modest. However, sentiment is tempered by catastrophe exposure: recent disclosures of elevated wind- and hail-related losses remind investors that a severe storm season can quickly pressure results.
PGR Overview and Recent Performance
The Progressive Corporation is the largest personal auto insurer in the United States by direct premiums written, with additional lines in commercial auto and residential property. Progressive has long been regarded for its data-driven pricing, direct-to-consumer distribution, and disciplined underwriting, and it recently reported a combined ratio of 75 for 2025, among the best in the industry. Policy growth has remained healthy, with momentum increasingly shifting toward agency-channel auto sales. Despite these strong fundamentals, the stock has traded lower over the past year and has underperformed year to date. A key factor is valuation: after years of market-leading gains, Progressive's premium multiple has left less room for upside, and investors have weighed the prospect of margin normalization as the auto pricing cycle matures. Analyst sentiment is mixed but leans constructive, with several firms maintaining buy ratings while a consensus "Hold" reflects caution on the stock's current level.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between the two companies lies in their business mix and risk exposure. Allstate's broader footprint—including a substantial homeowners book and a fast-growing protection-services unit—gives it more diversified revenue but also leaves it more vulnerable to catastrophe losses. Progressive's concentrated bet on personal auto has produced exceptional scale and efficiency, yet it ties the company more closely to a single pricing cycle. Growth drivers differ as well: Allstate is currently expanding market share while normalizing its margins from previously elevated levels, whereas Progressive is defending its leadership position and extending into bundled auto-home products. On momentum, Allstate has enjoyed the stronger recent run, while Progressive's relative performance has cooled despite superior long-term underwriting. Market sentiment reflects this divergence, with Allstate's valuation appearing more discounted and Progressive's premium multiple under scrutiny. Risk factors are roughly symmetrical: weather volatility for Allstate, competitive and margin-normalization pressure for Progressive.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely tilt toward Allstate in the current environment. The combination of a consistent earnings-improvement trend, improving underwriting margins, discounted valuation, and stronger recent relative performance suggests more favorable positioning. Progressive's fundamentals remain elite, and its dominant auto franchise provides long-term stability, but its softer near-term momentum and richer valuation introduce greater downside sensitivity. The verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: Allstate's catastrophe exposure could reverse the picture in a single severe storm season, while Progressive's scale and data advantage could reassert leadership as the cycle stabilizes. Ultimately, the AI's preference reflects trend consistency, relative positioning, and near-term catalysts rather than a forecast of guaranteed outcomes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ALL is a Hold and PGR is a Hold.
ALL's RSI Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for ALL moved out of oversold territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 22 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 19 of the 22 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ALL as a result. In 65 of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ALL just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where ALL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 42 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Following a +3.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ALL advanced for three days, in 208 of 331 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
ALL moved below its 50-day moving average on September 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ALL crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ALL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
ALL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ALL entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 30 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.815) is normal, around the industry mean (1.992). P/E Ratio (4.556) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.718). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.673) is also within normal values, averaging (3.303). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.968) is also within normal values, averaging (1.594).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 55 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. ALL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
PGR's RSI Indicator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for PGR moved out of oversold territory on September 25, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 15 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 11 of the 15 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PGR as a result. In 60 of 95 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PGR just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where PGR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
PGR moved above its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for PGR crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Following a +2.51% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PGR advanced for three days, in 193 of 340 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PGR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
PGR broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for PGR entered a downward trend on October 05, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PGR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 59 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: PGR's P/B Ratio (3.541) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.992). P/E Ratio (10.510) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.718). PGR's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (64.235) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.303). PGR's Dividend Yield (0.066) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.019). P/S Ratio (1.400) is also within normal values, averaging (1.594).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
ALL | PGR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 66 | 18 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 30 Undervalued | 59 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 16 | 26 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 89 | 91 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | 49 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 94 | 69 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 55 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ALL's Valuation (30) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as PGR (59). This means that ALL’s stock grew similarly to PGR’s over the last 12 months.
ALL's Profit vs Risk Rating (16) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as PGR (26). This means that ALL’s stock grew similarly to PGR’s over the last 12 months.
ALL's SMR Rating (89) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as PGR (91). This means that ALL’s stock grew similarly to PGR’s over the last 12 months.
PGR's Price Growth Rating (49) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as ALL (56). This means that PGR’s stock grew similarly to ALL’s over the last 12 months.
PGR's P/E Growth Rating (69) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as ALL (94). This means that PGR’s stock grew similarly to ALL’s over the last 12 months.
| ALL | PGR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 86% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 51% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 63% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 59% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 47% | 21 days ago 50% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 38% | 1 day ago 33% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ALL’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while PGR’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ALL’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PGR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ALL’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PGR’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ALL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- PGR’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ALL (@Property/Casualty Insurance) experienced а +5.41% price change this week, while PGR (@Property/Casualty Insurance) price change was +5.11% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Property/Casualty Insurance industry was +3.02%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.41%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.98%.
Reported Earning Dates
ALL is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
PGR is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Property/Casualty Insurance (+3.02% weekly)Property and casualty companies insure against accidents of non-physical harm, such as lawsuits, damage to personal assets, car crashes and more. Progressive Corporation, Travelers Companies, Inc. and Allstate Corporation are some of the biggest providers of such products.
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ALL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ALL has been closely correlated with HIG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 81% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ALL jumps, then HIG could also see price increases.
PGR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PGR has been closely correlated with ALL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PGR jumps, then ALL could also see price increases.