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ALL vs PGR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Allstate (ALL) vs. Progressive (PGR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Allstate (ALL) delivered a sharp earnings beat in its most recent quarter, driven by lower catastrophe losses, higher investment income, and an improved underwriting result, while Progressive (PGR) posted a softer quarter as premium growth decelerated and a one-time policyholder credit pressured earnings.
- Both companies are leading U.S. property and casualty insurers, but their recent momentum has diverged: ALL has outperformed, while PGR has lagged the broader market year to date.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on trend consistency, recent earnings momentum, and relative market positioning, Tickeron's AI currently favors ALL over PGR.
- For additional context, explore ALL Major News and ALL Today's Price Move, as well as PGR Major News and PGR Today's Price Move.
- To see how AI-driven strategies are positioning across the market, explore the Trending AI Robots page.
Introduction
Allstate and Progressive are two of the largest property and casualty insurers in the United States, competing directly across personal auto, homeowners, and commercial lines. For traders and investors tracking the insurance sector, a stock comparison between ALL and PGR offers a useful lens on underwriting quality, growth durability, and how each name is navigating a shifting pricing environment. While both generate the bulk of their revenue from premiums, their recent relative performance has diverged meaningfully, making this a relevant pairing for those evaluating market positioning and momentum within the same industry.
ALL Overview and Recent Performance
The Allstate Corporation is a diversified property and casualty insurer and the third-largest player in its category, serving roughly 16 million households. In recent weeks, ALL has exhibited notably strong momentum, with its share price climbing sharply after its latest quarterly report.
The recent results showed revenue of about $17.3 billion, up roughly 4% year over year, while adjusted net income rose to approximately $3.0 billion. Adjusted earnings of $11.17 per share significantly exceeded analyst expectations, and the Property-Liability combined ratio (a measure of underwriting profitability, where lower is better) improved to 80.1 from 96.4 a year earlier. Lower catastrophe losses, a growing investment portfolio, and higher premiums written all contributed to the improvement. The company has also repurchased more than $800 million of shares since early 2025, reinforcing shareholder returns. These factors have supported a favorable shift in sentiment and upward revisions to earnings estimates.
PGR Overview and Recent Performance
The Progressive Corporation is the largest personal auto insurer in the U.S., known for its direct-to-consumer and independent-agent distribution and a long track record of profitable underwriting. In recent market activity, however, PGR has traded more cautiously, underperforming the broader market and its sector peer over the trailing year.
Progressive's most recent quarter reflected continued double-digit revenue growth, but earnings came in below consensus. A roughly $950 million policyholder credit related to Florida personal auto profitability above statutory limits weighed on results, and net premiums written growth slowed into the single digits in percentage terms. The combined ratio, while still profitable near the high-80s, edged higher than some analysts expected. With industry rate increases reversing toward rate decreases and competitors re-entering the market, investors have focused on the trade-off between growth and margin, which has tempered enthusiasm around the stock despite its historically strong fundamentals.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Although ALL and PGR share the same sector, their profiles diverge in several important ways. Allstate operates a more diversified franchise, with a larger homeowners and protection-services footprint, and is currently benefiting from a strong cyclical tailwind in underwriting results and investment income. Its recent earnings surprise and improved combined ratio reflect an inflection toward higher profitability.
Progressive, by contrast, is a more concentrated personal auto leader with a longer record of consistent underwriting discipline. Its current challenge is sustaining growth as pricing power shifts: premium growth is decelerating just as rivals regain competitiveness. In terms of market sentiment, ALL has enjoyed upward estimate revisions and stronger recent price action, while PGR has seen analysts trim price targets amid margin and growth concerns. The core trade-off is between Allstate's near-term momentum and Progressive's longer-term operational consistency.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Weighing trend consistency, recent earnings momentum, and relative market positioning, Tickeron's AI would currently favor ALL over PGR. Allstate's improving combined ratio, earnings beat, and favorable estimate revisions suggest stronger near-term catalysts and more consistent positive momentum, whereas Progressive is contending with decelerating premium growth and margin-normalization concerns. This assessment is probabilistic and based on observable factors rather than a definitive forecast, and positioning could shift as new earnings, pricing, and catastrophe-loss data emerge.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ALL is a Hold and PGR is a StrongBuy.
ALL's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ALL turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where ALL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ALL as a result. In 55 of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
ALL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ALL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +3.15% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ALL advanced for three days, in 209 of 330 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 143 of 241 cases where ALL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 59%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 16 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ALL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 48%.
ALL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 51, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 38 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.106) is normal, around the industry mean (-2.190). P/E Ratio (5.219) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.307). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.673) is also within normal values, averaging (3.303). Dividend Yield (0.016) settles around the average of (0.026) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.968) is also within normal values, averaging (1.594).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ALL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 85 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
PGR in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026
The 10-day moving average for PGR crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PGR as a result. In 52 of 93 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PGR just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where PGR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
PGR moved above its 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.62% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PGR advanced for three days, in 195 of 340 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 175 of 328 cases where PGR Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 53%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 10 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
PGR broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 51, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. PGR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.954) is normal, around the industry mean (-2.190). P/E Ratio (11.708) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.307). PGR's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (64.235) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.303). Dividend Yield (0.002) settles around the average of (0.026) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.400) is also within normal values, averaging (1.594).
ALL | PGR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 35 | 37 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 38 Fair valued | 94 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 22 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 89 | 91 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 27 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 85 | 43 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ALL's Valuation (38) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PGR (94). This means that ALL’s stock grew somewhat faster than PGR’s over the last 12 months.
ALL's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as PGR (22). This means that ALL’s stock grew similarly to PGR’s over the last 12 months.
ALL's SMR Rating (89) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as PGR (91). This means that ALL’s stock grew similarly to PGR’s over the last 12 months.
PGR's Price Growth Rating (27) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is in the same range as ALL (40). This means that PGR’s stock grew similarly to ALL’s over the last 12 months.
PGR's P/E Growth Rating (43) in the Property Or Casualty Insurance industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ALL (85). This means that PGR’s stock grew somewhat faster than ALL’s over the last 12 months.
| ALL | PGR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 56% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 52% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 48% | N/A |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 48% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 53% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ALL’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while PGR’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ALL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PGR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ALL’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PGR’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ALL’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PGR’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
ALL (@Property/Casualty Insurance) experienced а +3.14% price change this week, while PGR (@Property/Casualty Insurance) price change was +2.04% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Property/Casualty Insurance industry was +1.86%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +9.47%, and the average quarterly price growth was +20.45%.
Reported Earning Dates
ALL is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
PGR is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Property/Casualty Insurance (+1.86% weekly)Property and casualty companies insure against accidents of non-physical harm, such as lawsuits, damage to personal assets, car crashes and more. Progressive Corporation, Travelers Companies, Inc. and Allstate Corporation are some of the biggest providers of such products.
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ALL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ALL has been closely correlated with HIG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 81% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ALL jumps, then HIG could also see price increases.