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Allstate is one of the largest US property-casualty insurers in the US... Show more

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Allstate (ALL) Stock Analysis: Bracing for Earnings Amid Catastrophe Losses

Key Takeaways

  • Allstate's shares recently hit a 52-week high before pulling back on March catastrophe (cat) loss disclosures.
  • Q1 2026 earnings due April 29, with consensus expecting EPS (earnings per share) of around $7.50, up over 110% year-over-year.
  • Analysts rate ALL a consensus Buy, with average price targets of $226-$240, implying upside from current levels.
  • Attractive valuation at a trailing P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio near 5.6, bolstered by a 2% dividend yield.
  • March cat losses totaled $925 million pre-tax from wind and hail events, pressuring near-term sentiment.

Current Market Snapshot

Allstate (ALL) stock has navigated volatility in recent trading sessions, maintaining proximity to its 52-week highs amid broader insurance sector dynamics. Trading around $213 with a market capitalization exceeding $55 billion, the shares reflect solid fundamentals including robust profitability margins and steady dividend payouts. Recent price action underscores resilience, with a low P/E ratio signaling undervaluation relative to peers, even as catastrophe pressures weigh on sentiment. Investor focus centers on upcoming earnings and underwriting momentum, positioning ALL for potential outperformance in a rate-stable environment.

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Recent Developments Driving ALL Price Action

In recent weeks, Allstate (ALL) experienced notable price swings tied to key disclosures and market anticipation. The stock surged to a new 52-week high of approximately $218.50 around April 15, buoyed by positive momentum from prior quarters' strong results and favorable analyst sentiment. This rally reflected confidence in the company's underwriting improvements and profitability gains, with shares outperforming peers on select sessions.

However, momentum stalled following the April 16 disclosure of March 2026 catastrophe losses totaling $925 million pre-tax ($731 million after-tax) from 15 wind and hail events across multiple regions. This update, part of Allstate's monthly release, heightened concerns over early-year cat exposure, contributing to a pullback that saw shares dip over 1.7% to around $212.88 by April 24. The revelation amplified investor focus on volatility in property-casualty (P&C) insurance, where severe weather remains a persistent risk factor.

Analyst activity added layers to the price narrative. On April 9, Wells Fargo maintained an Equal-Weight rating while raising its target to $229, citing balanced growth prospects. Earlier, Barclays adjusted to $208 on April 8, reflecting caution on cats, while Mizuho's March target stood at $265. Overall, the consensus holds at Buy with an average target near $240, supporting a constructive backdrop despite short-term dips.

Corporate updates provided stability. Allstate announced preferred stock dividends payable April 15, underscoring commitment to shareholders amid its $4 billion repurchase program momentum from earlier in the year. The company also filed its 2026 proxy statement on April 10, detailing strategic priorities like distribution expansion. On March 30, Allstate previewed its Q1 earnings call for April 30, with consensus forecasts calling for EPS of $7.46-$7.53 on $14.95 billion revenue—a sharp improvement driven by premium growth and investment income.

Macro factors, including increased lobbying by insurers on regulatory matters, further contextualized sentiment, as Allstate ramped up spending in Q1. Collectively, these events linked to a resilient uptrend interrupted by cat-specific pressures, with earnings now pivotal for renewed direction.

2026 Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor

As Allstate progresses through 2026, investors should track several strategic themes grounded in recent guidance and industry trends. Consensus projects revenue growth of about 7.3% to $72.8 billion, fueled by premium rate increases, policy retention, and distribution enhancements outlined in the company's proxy. Opportunities lie in market share gains within P&C insurance, leveraging technology for personalized pricing via telematics and bolstering investment portfolios amid stable rates.

Risks center on catastrophe frequency and severity, as early 2026 losses highlight weather volatility's impact on combined ratios (loss and expense metrics). Regulatory scrutiny on rate adequacy and climate-related disclosures could pressure margins, while competitive dynamics in auto and home segments demand vigilant cost management. Competitive positioning versus peers like Progressive and Travelers will hinge on return on equity (ROE) sustainability above 30% and non-cat underwriting discipline.

Broader factors include macroeconomic influences on consumer spending and claims inflation. Monitoring quarterly cat updates, EPS progression toward full-year targets, and capital deployment via dividends and buybacks will provide clarity on execution.

Disclaimer

The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations

A.I.Advisor
a Summary for ALL with price predictions
Jun 12, 2026

ALL's MACD Histogram just turned positive

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ALL turned positive on June 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where ALL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ALL as a result. In of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

ALL moved above its 50-day moving average on June 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for ALL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on June 11, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ALL advanced for three days, in of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 218 cases where ALL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for ALL moved out of overbought territory on May 20, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 29 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ALL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

ALL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 10, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 60, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.927) is normal, around the industry mean (1.928). P/E Ratio (4.903) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.332). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.656) is also within normal values, averaging (5.078). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.871) is also within normal values, averaging (1.422).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. ALL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

A.I.Advisor
published Dividends

ALL is expected to pay dividends on July 01, 2026

Allstate Corp (The) ALL Stock Dividends
A dividend of $1.08 per share will be paid with a record date of July 01, 2026, and an ex-dividend date of June 01, 2026. The last dividend of $1.08 was paid on April 01. Read more...
A.I.Advisor
published Highlights

Industry description

Property and casualty companies insure against accidents of non-physical harm, such as lawsuits, damage to personal assets, car crashes and more. Progressive Corporation, Travelers Companies, Inc. and Allstate Corporation are some of the biggest providers of such products.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Property/Casualty Insurance Industry is 12.6B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 93.9K to 127.27B. CB holds the highest valuation in this group at 127.27B. The lowest valued company is UNAM at 93.9K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Property/Casualty Insurance Industry was 2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 3%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4%. LMND experienced the highest price growth at 12%, while PRHI experienced the biggest fall at -6%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Property/Casualty Insurance Industry was -10%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -16% and the average quarterly volume growth was -20%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 50
P/E Growth Rating: 77
Price Growth Rating: 52
SMR Rating: 61
Profit Risk Rating: 59
Seasonality Score: -34 (-100 ... +100)
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published General Information

General Information

a provider of the provision of personal property and casualty insurance, life insurance, and retirement and investment products

Industry PropertyCasualtyInsurance

Profile
Details
Industry
Property Or Casualty Insurance
Address
3100 Sanders Road
Phone
+1 847 402-5000
Employees
53400
Web
https://www.allstate.com
Allstate (ALL) Stock Analysis: Bracing for Earnings Amid Catastrophe Losses