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ARCC vs BXSL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) vs. Blackstone Secured Lending Fund (BXSL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both ARCC and BXSL are prominent business development companies (BDCs) delivering high dividend yields, with BXSL at approximately 13% and ARCC at 10.3%.
- ARCC holds a larger market capitalization of $13.4 billion versus BXSL's $5.4 billion, offering greater scale and liquidity.
- In recent market activity, ARCC has shown positive 1-month performance around 5%, outperforming BXSL's approximately -2% decline.
- Tickeron's technical analysis favors ARCC with 5 bullish indicators compared to 3 for BXSL.
- Both face headwinds from private credit concerns, but ARCC's diversification and size provide a stability edge over BXSL's higher-yield focus.
Introduction
This stock comparison pits two leading BDCs, ARCC and BXSL, against each other in the high-yield direct lending space. BDCs like these provide financing to middle-market companies, offering investors attractive income through dividends amid volatile equity markets. Income-focused traders and long-term yield seekers may find value in evaluating their relative performance, dividend sustainability, and exposure to private credit risks. With recent market pressures on asset managers and upcoming earnings, understanding their business models, momentum, and positioning aids informed relative performance assessments.
ARCC Overview and Recent Performance
Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) is the largest publicly traded BDC, managing a diversified portfolio of senior secured loans, mezzanine debt, and equity investments in U.S. middle-market companies. In recent weeks, ARCC's stock has traded around $18.67, down from its 52-week high of $23.42 but above the low of $17.40. Sentiment has been influenced by broader private credit concerns and anticipation of Q1 2026 earnings, where analysts project a slight EPS decline. Core earnings held steady at $0.50 per share, supported by robust liquidity and a growing portfolio. The stock lagged major indices amid competitive dividend pressures but showed resilience with positive 1-month gains of about 5.24%. Dividend consistency remains a key draw, with a 10.3% yield.
BXSL Overview and Recent Performance
Blackstone Secured Lending Fund (BXSL) specializes in senior secured, primarily first-lien loans to private U.S. companies, leveraging Blackstone's institutional credit platform. Trading near $23.40 recently, it sits above its 52-week low of $22.47 but well below the high of $32.81. Recent performance reflects private credit watchlist stresses and earnings anticipation, with Q4 2025 net investment income (NII) of $0.80 per share beating estimates. The stock declined about 1.6% over the past month, underperforming amid sector slumps. Higher dividend yield of 13% attracts income investors, though payout ratios exceed 100% for both firms.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both ARCC and BXSL operate as BDCs under regulatory mandates to allocate at least 70% of assets to private U.S. firms, but ARCC offers broader diversification across debt and equity, while BXSL emphasizes safer first-lien senior loans. Growth drivers include portfolio expansion and NII generation, with similar P/E ratios around 9-10 and ROE near 9%. Recent momentum favors ARCC, with stronger short-term gains versus BXSL's pullback. Risk factors like high debt-to-equity (112% for ARCC, 129% for BXSL) and payout ratios over 100% heighten sensitivity to credit cycles. BXSL exhibits higher price volatility despite a lower beta, trading at a slight discount to book value like ARCC. Market sentiment reflects private credit caution, positioning ARCC's scale as a trade-off against BXSL's yield premium.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently leans toward ARCC based on superior technical trend consistency, larger scale for stability, and better relative momentum in recent weeks. While BXSL tempts with higher yield, ARCC's positioning suggests higher probability of outperformance amid ongoing private credit scrutiny.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ARCC is a StrongBuy and BXSL is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ARCC’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileBXSL’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- ARCC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- BXSL’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ARCC’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while BXSL’s TA Score has 2 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ARCC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- BXSL’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
ARCC (@Investment Managers) experienced а -4.19% price change this week, while BXSL (@Investment Managers) price change was -2.27% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was -2.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.51%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.15%.
Reported Earning Dates
ARCC is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
BXSL is expected to report earnings on Aug 12, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Managers (-2.34% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
| ARCC | BXSL | ARCC / BXSL | |
| Capitalization | 12.8B | 5.4B | 237% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | -7.092 | -8.862 | 80% |
| P/E Ratio | 10.94 | 12.16 | 90% |
| Revenue | 1.36B | 485M | 281% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 197M | - |
| Total Debt | 15.8B | 8.03B | 197% |
ARCC | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 71 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 3 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 33 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 21 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 49 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| ARCC | BXSL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 30% | 2 days ago 40% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 30% | 2 days ago 38% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 37% | 2 days ago 43% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 44% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 39% | 23 days ago 54% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 40% | 9 days ago 47% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 36% | 2 days ago 55% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| DBEU | 53.54 | 0.01 | +0.02% |
| Xtrackers MSCI Europe Hedged Equity ETF | |||
| CPII | 19.11 | N/A | N/A |
| American Beacon Ionic Inflation Prot ETF | |||
| ICRC | 21.60 | N/A | N/A |
| Bitwise CRCL Option Income Strategy ETF | |||
| FBND | 45.49 | -0.12 | -0.26% |
| Fidelity Total Bond ETF | |||
| BWG | 7.98 | -0.04 | -0.50% |
| BrandywineGLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund | |||
BXSL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BXSL has been closely correlated with OBDC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BXSL jumps, then OBDC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BXSL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BXSL | 100% | -1.65% | ||
| OBDC - BXSL | 78% Closely correlated | -0.74% | ||
| ARCC - BXSL | 75% Closely correlated | -1.05% | ||
| MSDL - BXSL | 75% Closely correlated | -2.67% | ||
| CGBD - BXSL | 73% Closely correlated | -2.05% | ||
| NCDL - BXSL | 72% Closely correlated | -1.23% | ||
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