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ARCC vs GBDC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) vs. Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ARCC boasts a larger market capitalization of $13.4 billion compared to GBDC's $3.5 billion, reflecting greater scale in the business development company (BDC) sector.
- ARCC delivers stronger year-to-date (YTD) performance at 5.19%, outperforming GBDC's 0.68% amid recent market activity.
- Dividend yields remain attractive for both, with GBDC at 11.29% slightly edging ARCC's 10.28%, supporting income-focused strategies.
- Over the past decade, ARCC has generated annualized returns of 12% versus GBDC's 6.29%, highlighting long-term relative strength.
- Recent earnings stability is evident, with GBDC matching Q1 estimates and ARCC preparing for its report amid private credit scrutiny.
- Analyst targets suggest upside, with ARCC at $21.73 and GBDC at $14.43, indicating positive market positioning.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines ARCC and GBDC, two prominent business development companies (BDCs) that provide financing to middle-market firms through debt and equity investments. Investors seeking high-yield income streams and exposure to private credit markets may find value in evaluating their relative performance, dividend reliability, and growth prospects. In the current environment of interest rate fluctuations and economic resilience, understanding their business models, recent momentum, and risk profiles offers insights for portfolio diversification and tactical trading decisions. This analysis draws on verifiable data to highlight key contrasts in stock comparison and market positioning.
ARCC Overview and Recent Performance
Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC), the largest publicly traded BDC by market cap, specializes in senior secured loans, mezzanine debt, and equity to U.S. middle-market companies. With a portfolio emphasizing diversified sectors, it benefits from robust liquidity and a strong capital position. In recent weeks, shares have traded around $18.67, reflecting YTD gains of 5.19% despite broader dips in private credit sentiment. Influences include anticipation of Q1 2026 earnings, where analysts expect a modest EPS decline, alongside high dividend appeal at 10.28% yield. Market activity has shown resilience, supported by stable core earnings per share at $0.50 and positive insider buying trends, though non-accrual risks and sector pressures have tempered gains.
GBDC Overview and Recent Performance
Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) focuses on senior secured and mezzanine loans to middle-market businesses, maintaining a conservative portfolio with low non-accruals. As a smaller BDC, it prioritizes first-lien debt for stability. Recent trading has centered near $13.29, with modest YTD performance of 0.68% amid steady credit quality. Q1 FY2026 results met EPS estimates at $0.37, bolstering sentiment, while the 11.29% dividend yield attracts income investors. Portfolio growth of 4% and leverage within targets have supported net investment income stability, though slower momentum reflects broader BDC sector challenges like rate sensitivity.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both ARCC and GBDC operate as BDCs under the 1940 Investment Company Act, mandated to invest 70% in U.S. private firms, delivering high yields via debt-focused portfolios. ARCC's scale enables broader diversification and higher net investment income (NII, or net interest income after expenses), contrasting GBDC's more conservative first-lien emphasis for lower volatility. Recent momentum favors ARCC with superior YTD returns and analyst upgrades, while GBDC offers a yield edge amid stable non-accruals. Risks include interest rate shifts impacting net asset value (NAV, total assets minus liabilities) and credit events, with ARCC exposed to mezzanine layers. Sector exposure overlaps in industrials and services, but sentiment leans toward ARCC's growth catalysts like portfolio expansion.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI models currently favor ARCC over GBDC, driven by stronger trend consistency, YTD outperformance, larger scale for stability, and upcoming earnings catalysts amid resilient middle-market demand. While GBDC provides a higher yield and defensive positioning, ARCC's relative momentum and long-term returns suggest higher probability of near-term upside in the BDC space.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ARCC is a Hold and GBDC is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ARCC’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileGBDC’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ARCC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- GBDC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ARCC’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while GBDC’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ARCC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
- GBDC’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
ARCC (@Investment Managers) experienced а +0.35% price change this week, while GBDC (@Investment Managers) price change was -0.04% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was +2.27%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.01%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.98%.
Reported Earning Dates
ARCC is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
GBDC is expected to report earnings on Aug 10, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Managers (+2.27% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
| ARCC | GBDC | ARCC / GBDC | |
| Capitalization | 13.4B | 3.33B | 403% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | -3.030 | -0.800 | 379% |
| P/E Ratio | 11.42 | 16.58 | 69% |
| Revenue | 1.36B | 236M | 577% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 26.2M | - |
| Total Debt | 15.8B | 4.7B | 336% |
ARCC | GBDC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 20 | 14 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 3 Undervalued | 4 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 29 | 34 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 21 | 46 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 56 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 31 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 48 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ARCC's Valuation (3) in the null industry is in the same range as GBDC (4). This means that ARCC’s stock grew similarly to GBDC’s over the last 12 months.
ARCC's Profit vs Risk Rating (29) in the null industry is in the same range as GBDC (34). This means that ARCC’s stock grew similarly to GBDC’s over the last 12 months.
ARCC's SMR Rating (21) in the null industry is in the same range as GBDC (46). This means that ARCC’s stock grew similarly to GBDC’s over the last 12 months.
GBDC's Price Growth Rating (56) in the null industry is in the same range as ARCC (57). This means that GBDC’s stock grew similarly to ARCC’s over the last 12 months.
GBDC's P/E Growth Rating (31) in the null industry is in the same range as ARCC (45). This means that GBDC’s stock grew similarly to ARCC’s over the last 12 months.
| ARCC | GBDC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 28% | 2 days ago 27% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 31% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 41% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 41% | 2 days ago 32% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 39% | 2 days ago 33% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 39% | 7 days ago 32% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 41% | 3 days ago 30% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 24% | 2 days ago 32% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 39% | 3 days ago 39% |
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ARCC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ARCC has been closely correlated with OBDC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ARCC jumps, then OBDC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ARCC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARCC | 100% | N/A | ||
| OBDC - ARCC | 80% Closely correlated | +0.09% | ||
| GBDC - ARCC | 78% Closely correlated | +0.39% | ||
| BXSL - ARCC | 75% Closely correlated | +0.17% | ||
| CSWC - ARCC | 72% Closely correlated | +0.48% | ||
| TSLX - ARCC | 70% Closely correlated | +1.16% | ||
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GBDC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GBDC has been closely correlated with ARCC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GBDC jumps, then ARCC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GBDC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBDC | 100% | +0.39% | ||
| ARCC - GBDC | 78% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| OBDC - GBDC | 74% Closely correlated | +0.09% | ||
| TSLX - GBDC | 68% Closely correlated | +1.16% | ||
| BXSL - GBDC | 68% Closely correlated | +0.17% | ||
| PFLT - GBDC | 68% Closely correlated | +1.03% | ||
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