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ARES vs TPG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Ares Management Corporation (ARES) vs. TPG Inc. (TPG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Ares Management Corporation (ARES) manages $623 billion in assets under management (AUM), dwarfing TPG Inc.'s (TPG) $303 billion, highlighting ARES's larger scale in alternative investments.
- Both stocks offer attractive dividend yields near 4.8%, appealing to income-focused investors amid market volatility.
- TPG edges out ARES in year-to-date performance with +31.9% gains versus +29.7%, driven by robust fundraising.
- Recent market activity shows both stocks down significantly from 52-week highs, reflecting broader alternative asset sector pressures.
- Upcoming quarterly earnings reports could shift sentiment, with private credit and deal flow as key catalysts.
- Diversified strategies in credit, private equity, and real estate position both for growth in a high-interest-rate environment.
Introduction
In the competitive landscape of alternative asset management, ARES and TPG stand out as publicly traded leaders offering exposure to private credit, private equity, and real estate. This comparison is particularly relevant for traders eyeing relative performance amid shifting interest rates and rising demand for yield-generating assets. Investors seeking diversified income streams or momentum plays in the financial sector will find value in understanding their business models, recent momentum, and market positioning. Both firms have demonstrated resilience, but key differences in scale and growth drivers influence their trajectories in current market conditions.
ARES Overview and Recent Performance
Ares Management Corporation (ARES) is a global alternative asset manager specializing in credit, private equity, real estate, and infrastructure, with a strong emphasis on direct lending to middle-market companies. In recent market activity, ARES shares have traded around $112, reflecting year-to-date gains of approximately 30% but pulling back from a 52-week high near $195. The stock's performance has been bolstered by record AUM reaching $622.5 billion at year-end 2025, up 29% year-over-year, fueled by direct lending fundraising and infrastructure growth. Sentiment has improved on high-profile financings, such as involvement in the X-Energy IPO backed by Amazon, and a 20% dividend increase yielding 4.8%. Private credit demand and stable fee-related earnings have supported resilience, though broader sector volatility tied to interest rates has capped upside.
TPG Overview and Recent Performance
TPG Inc. (TPG) operates as a diversified alternative asset manager, focusing on private equity, growth equity, impact investing, and credit across global markets. Recently, TPG shares have hovered near $43, delivering year-to-date returns of about 32% while retreating from a 52-week peak of $70. Key drivers include AUM expansion to $303 billion by end-2025, up roughly 23%, powered by a record $51 billion in capital raised and $52 billion deployed. Positive sentiment stems from investments like $100 million in student mobility firm Zum and a TPG-led group acquiring an Indian climate lender. With a comparable 4.8% dividend yield, performance reflects strong deployment momentum, tempered by private equity valuation risks and market rotations away from growth assets.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both ARES and TPG thrive as alternative asset managers, but ARES emphasizes direct lending and credit (key growth driver amid tight bank lending), while TPG leans into private equity and growth platforms. ARES's AUM more than doubles TPG's, offering greater fee stability but higher absolute risk exposure. Recent momentum favors TPG's slight YTD edge, tied to fundraising prowess, versus ARES's dividend appeal. Risk factors include interest rate sensitivity for credit portfolios and private equity drawdowns; both face redemption pressures in private credit. Sector exposure overlaps in real estate and infrastructure, with market sentiment tilting toward scaled players like ARES amid economic uncertainty, though TPG's agility in emerging deals provides a counterbalance.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors ARES over TPG, based on superior AUM scale ($623B vs. $303B), faster 29% year-over-year growth, and consistent private credit catalysts like recent financings. While TPG shows stronger short-term momentum, ARES's stability and positioning suggest higher probability of outperformance in a yield-focused environment, pending earnings outcomes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ARES is a StrongBuy and TPG is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ARES’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileTPG’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ARES’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TPG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ARES’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TPG’s TA Score has 7 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ARES’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TPG’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 1 bearish.
Price Growth
ARES (@Investment Managers) experienced а +7.36% price change this week, while TPG (@Investment Managers) price change was +4.42% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was +1.75%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.79%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7.30%.
Reported Earning Dates
ARES is expected to report earnings on Jul 31, 2026.
TPG is expected to report earnings on Aug 11, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Managers (+1.75% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
| ARES | TPG | ARES / TPG | |
| Capitalization | 30.4B | 6.9B | 441% |
| EBITDA | 2.23B | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | -15.402 | -30.846 | 50% |
| P/E Ratio | 62.17 | 187.00 | 33% |
| Revenue | 5.91B | 3.04B | 194% |
| Total Cash | 1.44B | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 14.1B | 2.99B | 472% |
ARES | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 34 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 15 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 50 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 97 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 88 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 37 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| ARES | TPG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 78% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 81% | 3 days ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 77% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 76% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 65% | 12 days ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 58% | 3 days ago 83% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 76% |
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ARES and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ARES has been closely correlated with KKR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ARES jumps, then KKR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ARES | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARES | 100% | +1.57% | ||
| KKR - ARES | 82% Closely correlated | +0.99% | ||
| OWL - ARES | 78% Closely correlated | -0.41% | ||
| BX - ARES | 77% Closely correlated | +1.58% | ||
| TPG - ARES | 77% Closely correlated | +0.75% | ||
| APO - ARES | 76% Closely correlated | -0.02% | ||
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