Advertisement
ASX vs TSM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ASE Technology Holding (ASX) vs. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ASX (ASE Technology Holding) has delivered a sharper recent rally than TSM, driven by surging demand for advanced semiconductor packaging and testing tied to the AI build-out.
- TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) is the world's largest dedicated chip foundry and remains the structurally dominant, higher-margin player, but its shares have pulled back modestly in recent weeks.
- Both companies are concentrated beneficiaries of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure spending, though they occupy different stages of the semiconductor value chain.
- ASX trades at a materially lower price-to-sales and price-to-earnings multiple than TSM, reflecting a different growth and margin profile.
- Execution and capacity expansion are the key watch items for both names, with geopolitical and margin pressures concentrated more heavily on TSM.
- For additional detail on each company, explore the ASX Major News and ASX Today's Price Move pages, as well as the TSM Major News and TSM Today's Price Move pages.
- To see how automated systems are positioning across these and other tickers, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Investors tracking the semiconductor sector frequently compare ASX and TSM because both Taiwan-based companies sit near the center of the AI hardware boom, yet serve different roles within it. This stock comparison is relevant for traders evaluating relative performance and market positioning, as well as longer-term investors weighing growth drivers against risk factors. ASE Technology Holding is a leading provider of semiconductor assembly, testing, and advanced packaging, while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is the dominant dedicated foundry that fabricates cutting-edge chips. Understanding how these two businesses respond to the same demand cycle can clarify which exposure best fits a given portfolio objective.
ASX Overview and Recent Performance
ASX, or ASE Technology Holding, generates most of its profit from its Assembly, Testing, and Materials (ATM) business, with its Leading-Edge Advanced Packaging (LEAP) services emerging as the primary growth engine. As AI chips grow more complex, packaging and testing have become critical to performance, lifting ASE's utilization, revenue mix, and margins. In recent quarters, ATM revenue rose roughly 36% year over year, while ATM gross margin expanded to about 27%, with management guiding toward more than 30% later in the year.
Recent market activity has been notably strong, with shares rallying sharply over the past six months and roughly doubling or more on a year-to-date basis, outpacing the broader semiconductor industry. This momentum reflects raised 2026 capital expenditure (capex) plans of approximately $10.5 billion and an upgraded LEAP revenue outlook above $3.5 billion, with a stated goal of doubling LEAP revenue in 2027. Sentiment has been further supported by favorable analyst actions and higher price targets, though the rapid appreciation has also lifted valuation expectations and raises the bar on timely capacity execution.
TSM Overview and Recent Performance
TSM, or Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, is the world's largest dedicated chip foundry, with roughly 70% share of the advanced manufacturing market and customers including Nvidia, AMD, and Apple. Its scale and technology leadership support gross margins around 66% and operating margins near 59%, far above typical industry levels. High-performance computing now accounts for roughly two-thirds of revenue, underscoring the company's leverage to AI accelerators and data-center demand.
In recent weeks, TSM posted another record quarter with revenue of roughly $46.7 billion and a double-digit jump in net profit, while guiding fourth-quarter revenue to between $52.3 billion and $54.3 billion. Full-year 2026 revenue growth is now expected to reach about 44% in U.S. dollar terms. Despite strong fundamentals, shares have pulled back modestly from recent highs, weighed by sequentially softer gross margin tied to the 2-nanometer ramp and overseas fab costs, heavy capex commitments of $60 billion to $64 billion, and broader macroeconomic caution. A Moody's upgrade to Aa2 and continued analyst bullishness highlight the market's longer-term confidence.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains a dedicated Trending AI Robots section that curates a selection of its AI trading bots. The platform hosts hundreds of automated bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, each with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance history, statistics, and basket of securities. Because market conditions shift constantly, only the bots best suited to the current environment earn placement in this curated list, helping traders filter through a large universe of options. The bots span varied approaches—from short-term momentum to longer-horizon trend strategies—so investors can compare performance metrics and risk profiles side by side. To review the currently featured strategies, visit Trending AI Robots.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between ASX and TSM lies in their positions along the semiconductor value chain. TSM fabricates leading-edge logic chips and captures exceptional pricing power and margins, but also carries concentrated geopolitical risk because most production remains in Taiwan. ASX focuses on packaging and testing, a lower-margin but fast-growing segment that benefits from the same AI tailwind without the same foundry-level capital intensity.
On growth and momentum, ASX has shown more explosive recent price appreciation and stronger upward earnings revisions, while TSM offers more stability, a longer record of profitability, and greater scale. Valuation also differs: ASX trades at a lower price-to-sales multiple, while TSM commands a premium consistent with its market leadership and structural moat. Risk factors diverge as well—ASX faces execution risk across its aggressive capacity build-out, while TSM faces margin dilution from new fabs and supply-chain concentration concerns.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative momentum, and the strength of recent earnings revisions, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward ASX in the current environment. The stock's sustained uptrend, accelerating advanced-packaging demand, and upward estimate revisions suggest more immediate trend consistency than TSM, whose short-term momentum has cooled despite strong fundamentals. That said, TSM would likely score higher on stability and structural positioning, making the two names complementary rather than interchangeable. The probabilistic read favors ASX for momentum-driven strategies and TSM for longer-horizon, quality-oriented positioning.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ASX is a Hold and TSM is a Hold.
ASX in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026
ASX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 30 of 32 cases where ASX's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +5.92% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ASX advanced for three days, in 271 of 353 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ASX moved out of overbought territory on October 06, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 32 of the 45 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 71%.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ASX as a result. In 53 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ASX turned negative on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 67%.
ASX moved below its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ASX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ASX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Aroon Indicator for ASX entered a downward trend on October 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 19 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.264) is normal, around the industry mean (6.050). P/E Ratio (1.433) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.007). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.210) is also within normal values, averaging (3.761). ASX has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.036) as compared to the industry average of (0.011). P/S Ratio (3.791) is also within normal values, averaging (45.794).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ASX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
TSM in +3.57% Uptrend, rising for three consecutive days on October 28, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where TSM advanced for three days, in 236 of 317 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TSM's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 201 of 276 cases where TSM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 73%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 40 of 67 cases where TSM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TSM as a result. In 55 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TSM turned negative on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 61%.
TSM moved below its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TSM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TSM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
TSM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 42 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.327) is normal, around the industry mean (6.050). P/E Ratio (0.950) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.007). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.859) is also within normal values, averaging (3.761). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (15.480) is also within normal values, averaging (45.794).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TSM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
ASX | TSM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 15 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 19 Undervalued | 42 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 13 | 8 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 50 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 35 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 96 | 97 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ASX's Valuation (19) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TSM (42). This means that ASX’s stock grew similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASX (13). This means that TSM’s stock grew similarly to ASX’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's SMR Rating (26) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASX (50). This means that TSM’s stock grew similarly to ASX’s over the last 12 months.
ASX's Price Growth Rating (35) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TSM (46). This means that ASX’s stock grew similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
ASX's P/E Growth Rating (96) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TSM (97). This means that ASX’s stock grew similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
| ASX | TSM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 77% | 4 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 73% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASX’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while TSM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ASX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TSM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASX’s TA Score shows that 2 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TSM’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASX’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 8 bearish.
- TSM’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 7 bearish.
Price Growth
ASX (@Semiconductors) experienced а +2.09% price change this week, while TSM (@Semiconductors) price change was -2.96% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was -0.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -18.87%, and the average quarterly price growth was -16.09%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASX is expected to report earnings on Feb 11, 2027.
TSM is expected to report earnings on Jan 21, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (-0.34% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Advertisement
TSM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TSM has been closely correlated with ASML. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TSM jumps, then ASML could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TSM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | 100% | -5.95% | ||
| ASML - TSM | 74% Closely correlated | -6.55% | ||
| LRCX - TSM | 73% Closely correlated | -6.01% | ||
| KLAC - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | -5.69% | ||
| AMAT - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | -7.49% | ||
| ASX - TSM | 70% Closely correlated | -11.34% | ||
More | ||||