Advertisement
AVAV vs KTOS
AeroVironment (AVAV) vs Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) Earnings Recap: Q3 Growth Amid Execution Challenges
Key Takeaways
- AeroVironment reported Q3 FY2026 revenue of $408 million, up 143% YoY, but missed estimates due to order timing and Space segment adjustments.
- AVAV non-GAAP EPS of $0.64 beat prior year but fell short of consensus; lowered FY2026 guidance to $1.85-$1.95 billion revenue and $2.75-$3.10 non-GAAP EPS.
- Kratos posted Q4 FY2025 revenue of $345.1 million, up 22% YoY, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.18 beating expectations; FY2026 revenue outlook $1.595-$1.675 billion.
- Both firms show robust backlogs: AVAV funded backlog $1.1 billion, KTOS $1.573 billion total backlog.
- AVAV and KTOS compete in unmanned systems, with AVAV leading in loitering munitions and KTOS advancing hypersonics and drones.
- Market caps approximate AVAV $11B, KTOS $16B, reflecting strong defense demand for autonomous tech.
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
Both AVAV and KTOS operate in the high-growth unmanned aerial systems and defense technology sectors, capitalizing on rising global demand for drones, loitering munitions, and counter-UAS solutions. AeroVironment focuses on tactical UAS like Switchblade, while Kratos emphasizes target drones, hypersonics, and satellite systems. Recent earnings highlight execution in scaling production amid contract wins, but also challenges like program delays. This comparison evaluates earnings quality, backlog conversion, and growth positioning in a sector driven by U.S. DoD spending.
AeroVironment Focus
AeroVironment released Q3 FY2026 results (quarter ended January 31, 2026) on March 10, 2026. Revenue reached $408 million, a 143% increase from $167.6 million YoY, fueled by 38% organic growth in Autonomous Systems. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.64, more than double prior year's $0.30, though GAAP EPS reflected a $(3.15) loss due to $151.3 million goodwill impairment in Space/Cyber/Directed Energy from a terminated program. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $44.5 million from $21.8 million. Funded backlog hit a record $1.1 billion, with nine-month bookings at $2.1 billion and book-to-bill of 1.6x. FY2026 guidance was adjusted lower to $1.85-$1.95 billion revenue (from prior $1.95-$2.0 billion), non-GAAP EPS $2.75-$3.10, citing order timing and SCDE contributions.
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Context
Kratos reported Q4 FY2025 (ended December 28, 2025) results on February 23, 2026, with revenue of $345.1 million, up 21.9% YoY (20% organic). Non-GAAP EPS of $0.18 topped expectations, while GAAP EPS was $0.03. Full-year revenue grew 18.5% to $1.347 billion. Unmanned Systems revenue rose 12.1% organically to $68.5 million; overall backlog reached $1.573 billion (funded $1.232 billion). For FY2026, Kratos guides revenue to $1.595-$1.675 billion (up to 18.5% growth), Adjusted EBITDA $157-$167 million, with Q1 as the lowest quarter. Next earnings for Q1 FY2026 expected early May 2026.
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
AeroVironment's Q3 revenue growth outpaced Kratos' Q4 at 143% vs. 22%, driven by BlueHalo integration and AxS demand, but misses on estimates and guidance cut highlight integration risks and program volatility. Kratos delivered beats with steady organic growth, stronger backlog funding, and optimistic FY2026 outlook tied to hypersonics doubling to $400 million. AVAV's adjusted gross margins at 27% exceed KTOS implied margins, but higher debt ($826M vs. KTOS $134M) adds leverage risk. Both benefit from DoD priorities, yet KTOS shows more consistent beats (28.57% surprise) vs. AVAV's misses. Sentiment favors KTOS for stability, AVAV for upside in loitering munitions.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots page showcases the platform's top-performing AI trading bots under current market conditions. Tickeron offers hundreds of AI bots covering thousands of tickers across diverse strategies like momentum, mean reversion, and scalping, with varying timeframes from intraday to long-term. Only the strongest bots—those demonstrating superior win rates, profit factors, and risk-adjusted returns—are featured in this curated section. Performance metrics highlight real-time rankings, with top bots often achieving 60-80% win rates and Sharpe ratios above 2.0 in backtests and live trading. Investors can explore, backtest, and deploy these bots to automate strategies on stocks like AVAV and KTOS. Visit the page to discover leading performers tailored to today's volatility.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron AI currently favors KTOS with 65% probability over the next 12 months, citing consistent earnings beats, lower debt, record backlog, and stable FY2026 guidance amid AVAV's recent miss and guidance reduction. KTOS edges on trend strength and risk-adjusted positioning.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AVAV is a Hold and KTOS is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AVAV’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileKTOS’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AVAV’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KTOS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AVAV’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KTOS’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AVAV’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- KTOS’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 2 bearish.
Price Growth
AVAV (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а +6.51% price change this week, while KTOS (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was +0.92% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was +4.81%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +11.73%, and the average quarterly price growth was +29.52%.
Reported Earning Dates
AVAV is expected to report earnings on Jun 30, 2026.
KTOS is expected to report earnings on May 06, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (+4.81% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
| AVAV | KTOS | AVAV / KTOS | |
| Capitalization | 9.69B | 13.3B | 73% |
| EBITDA | 104M | 103M | 101% |
| Gain YTD | -20.865 | -6.481 | 322% |
| P/E Ratio | 149.03 | 546.08 | 27% |
| Revenue | 1.61B | 1.35B | 120% |
| Total Cash | 587M | 561M | 105% |
| Total Debt | 826M | 146M | 566% |
AVAV | KTOS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 19 | 6 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | 94 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 79 | 61 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 92 | 89 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 65 | 63 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 16 | 14 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 32 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AVAV's Valuation (83) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as KTOS (94). This means that AVAV’s stock grew similarly to KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
KTOS's Profit vs Risk Rating (61) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as AVAV (79). This means that KTOS’s stock grew similarly to AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
KTOS's SMR Rating (89) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as AVAV (92). This means that KTOS’s stock grew similarly to AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
KTOS's Price Growth Rating (63) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as AVAV (65). This means that KTOS’s stock grew similarly to AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
KTOS's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as AVAV (16). This means that KTOS’s stock grew similarly to AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
| AVAV | KTOS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 81% | 3 days ago 72% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 82% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 83% | 3 days ago 78% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 87% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 79% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 79% | 5 days ago 79% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 21 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 77% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 78% |
Advertisement
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| VFMO | 220.18 | 3.21 | +1.48% |
| Vanguard US Momentum Factor ETF | |||
| ITDG | 40.39 | 0.52 | +1.31% |
| iShares LifePath Target Date 2055 ETF | |||
| CBXA | 22.55 | 0.19 | +0.85% |
| Calamos Bitcoin 90 Series Structured Alt Protection ETF - April | |||
| GPRF | 50.61 | 0.14 | +0.28% |
| Goldman Sachs Acs US Pref Stk &HySecETF | |||
| ERC | 9.28 | 0.02 | +0.22% |
| Allspring Multi-Sector Income Fund | |||
AVAV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AVAV has been loosely correlated with KTOS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 59% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AVAV jumps, then KTOS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AVAV | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAV | 100% | -5.23% | ||
| KTOS - AVAV | 59% Loosely correlated | -4.60% | ||
| KRMN - AVAV | 45% Loosely correlated | -4.93% | ||
| MRCY - AVAV | 45% Loosely correlated | -1.01% | ||
| DRS - AVAV | 44% Loosely correlated | -0.82% | ||
| GD - AVAV | 42% Loosely correlated | +0.41% | ||
More | ||||
KTOS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KTOS has been loosely correlated with KRMN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 60% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if KTOS jumps, then KRMN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To KTOS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTOS | 100% | -4.60% | ||
| KRMN - KTOS | 60% Loosely correlated | -4.93% | ||
| AVAV - KTOS | 59% Loosely correlated | -5.23% | ||
| MRCY - KTOS | 56% Loosely correlated | -1.01% | ||
| DRS - KTOS | 55% Loosely correlated | -0.82% | ||
| HII - KTOS | 52% Loosely correlated | -0.34% | ||
More | ||||