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AVAV vs KTOS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AeroVironment (AVAV) vs. Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AeroVironment (AVAV) delivered record fiscal Q4 2026 revenue of $641.6 million, more than doubling year-over-year, with a funded backlog reaching $1.2 billion.
- Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) reported strong Q2 2026 organic revenue growth of 19.1% and raised full-year 2026 guidance, supported by a $2 billion backlog.
- Both companies operate in the unmanned systems and defense technology space but differ in scale, with AVAV showing larger recent revenue expansion and KTOS maintaining steady bookings across multiple programs.
- AVAV shares have experienced sharper post-earnings volatility and a steeper year-to-date decline compared with KTOS, reflecting differing contract timing and market reactions.
- Sector tailwinds from U.S. defense modernization and unmanned aerial systems demand support both stocks amid elevated geopolitical tensions.
- Recent contract wins, including laser systems for AVAV and communications/hardware awards for KTOS, underscore expanding opportunities in counter-unmanned and resilient communications segments.
Introduction
AeroVironment (AVAV) and Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) are two publicly traded companies focused on unmanned aerial systems and related defense technologies. This comparison examines their recent financial performance, contract momentum, and market positioning within the broader aerospace and defense sector. Institutional investors, active traders monitoring defense spending trends, and those evaluating relative strength in unmanned systems may find this analysis relevant for assessing diversification or tactical allocation opportunities in the current environment.
AVAV Overview and Recent Performance
AeroVironment (AVAV) specializes in small unmanned aircraft systems and related technologies for defense and commercial applications. In recent market activity, the company reported standout fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results that exceeded expectations, with revenue more than doubling to $641.6 million and adjusted earnings per share reaching $1.84. The funded backlog expanded 65% to $1.2 billion, reflecting robust demand for its autonomous systems. Acquisitions completed in 2025 and early 2026 contributed meaningfully to the top line, while new program wins, including a significant U.S. Army laser defense contract, have supported sentiment. Shares rallied sharply following the earnings release but have faced broader year-to-date pressure amid sector rotation and prior contract adjustments.
KTOS Overview and Recent Performance
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) provides unmanned systems, hypersonic and propulsion technologies, and communications solutions primarily for government and defense customers. Recent quarterly results showed continued organic expansion, with second-quarter 2026 revenue rising 19.1% year-over-year to $458.8 million and the company raising full-year guidance. Consolidated backlog stood near $2 billion with a trailing book-to-bill ratio of 1.3. Multiple contract awards in the summer months, including satellite communications gateways and military hardware production, have reinforced visibility. Shares have traded lower year-to-date amid broader defense stock volatility, though steady program execution and pipeline growth of $15 billion have provided underlying support.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AeroVironment (AVAV) operates with a more concentrated focus on small unmanned aircraft and emerging directed-energy systems, delivering higher recent revenue growth rates but facing greater share-price swings after earnings. Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) maintains broader exposure across unmanned targets, hypersonics, and communications, resulting in steadier bookings and a larger absolute backlog relative to its size. Both benefit from rising defense budgets directed at attritable systems and counter-unmanned capabilities, yet AVAV’s larger-scale earnings beat and backlog surge contrast with KTOS’s incremental contract flow and raised guidance. Risk factors include execution on manufacturing scale-up for AVAV and supply-chain pressures for KTOS, while market sentiment has rewarded AVAV’s near-term momentum more visibly than KTOS’s consistent but less explosive trajectory.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as earnings surprise magnitude, backlog expansion consistency, and relative positioning within defense unmanned segments, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a higher probabilistic edge to AeroVironment (AVAV). The company’s recent quarterly outperformance and multi-year program visibility provide a clearer near-term catalyst profile compared with KTOS’s steadier but more incremental progress. This assessment reflects pattern recognition across trend stability and catalyst density rather than any directional forecast.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AVAV is a Hold and KTOS is a Hold.
AVAV | KTOS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 86 | 14 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 81 Overvalued | 89 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 87 | 83 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 92 | 89 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 77 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 9 | 97 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AVAV's Valuation (81) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as KTOS (89). This means that AVAV’s stock grew similarly to KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
KTOS's Profit vs Risk Rating (83) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as AVAV (87). This means that KTOS’s stock grew similarly to AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
KTOS's SMR Rating (89) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as AVAV (92). This means that KTOS’s stock grew similarly to AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
AVAV's Price Growth Rating (55) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as KTOS (77). This means that AVAV’s stock grew similarly to KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
AVAV's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is significantly better than the same rating for KTOS (97). This means that AVAV’s stock grew significantly faster than KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
| AVAV | KTOS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 75% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 78% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 90% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 73% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 81% | 12 days ago 80% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 76% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 74% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AVAV’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while KTOS’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- AVAV’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KTOS’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AVAV’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KTOS’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AVAV’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- KTOS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
AVAV (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а -4.94% price change this week, while KTOS (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was -3.88% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was +0.78%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -8.70%, and the average quarterly price growth was -2.31%.
Reported Earning Dates
AVAV is expected to report earnings on Dec 08, 2026.
KTOS is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (+0.78% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
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AVAV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AVAV has been closely correlated with KTOS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AVAV jumps, then KTOS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AVAV | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAV | 100% | -4.10% | ||
| KTOS - AVAV | 70% Closely correlated | -2.98% | ||
| MRCY - AVAV | 55% Loosely correlated | -1.20% | ||
| RCAT - AVAV | 54% Loosely correlated | -2.06% | ||
| KRMN - AVAV | 52% Loosely correlated | +2.21% | ||
| VOYG - AVAV | 50% Loosely correlated | +0.80% | ||
More | ||||
KTOS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KTOS has been closely correlated with AVAV. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KTOS jumps, then AVAV could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To KTOS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTOS | 100% | -2.98% | ||
| AVAV - KTOS | 70% Closely correlated | -4.10% | ||
| RCAT - KTOS | 64% Loosely correlated | -2.06% | ||
| KRMN - KTOS | 61% Loosely correlated | +2.21% | ||
| MRCY - KTOS | 61% Loosely correlated | -1.20% | ||
| DRS - KTOS | 60% Loosely correlated | -1.14% | ||
More | ||||