AVAV stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
AeroVironment Inc supplies unmanned aircraft systems, tactical missile systems, high-altitude pseudo-satellites, and other related services to government agencies within the United States Department of Defense as well as the United States allied international governments... Show more
AeroVironment (AVAV) Q3 Fiscal 2026 Earnings Recap: Misses Estimates Amid Robust Backlog Growth
Key Takeaways
- AeroVironment reported Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue of $408.0 million, up 143% year-over-year but below consensus estimates of approximately $473 million.
- Non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.64, missing expectations of $0.68-$0.72, while GAAP EPS showed a net loss of $(3.15) due to a $151.3 million goodwill impairment.
- Funded backlog reached a record $1.1 billion, with total nine-month bookings of $2.1 billion and book-to-bill of 1.6x.
- Company lowered FY2026 guidance to revenue of $1.85-$1.95 billion, non-GAAP EPS of $2.75-$3.10, from prior $1.95-$2.0 billion and $3.40-$3.55.
- Adjusted EBITDA was $44.5 million; gross margins at 24% impacted by higher service mix and acquisition-related amortization.
- Stock fell 2.5% on March 10 to close at $221.57, with after-hours drop of nearly 8% to around $204.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
AeroVironment's Q3 fiscal 2026 results, for the period ended January 31, 2026, reflect the ongoing integration of its BlueHalo acquisition while navigating defense sector delays and program shifts. Revenue surged 143% year-over-year, driven by strong demand for unmanned systems amid global conflicts, but missed heightened expectations post-acquisition. The results matter for investors as they test the company's ability to scale post-BlueHalo, manage margins amid service-heavy revenue, and convert a record $1.1 billion funded backlog into sustained growth. With FY2026 visibility at 98% to guidance midpoint, execution on Q4 remains pivotal in a rising defense budget environment.
Earnings Expectations or Reported Results
AeroVironment reported fiscal third quarter 2026 revenue of $408.0 million, a 143% increase from $167.6 million in the prior-year quarter but short of analyst consensus around $473 million. Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share were $0.64, more than doubling from $0.30 last year yet below expectations of $0.68-$0.72. GAAP results showed a net loss of $156.6 million or $(3.15) per share, primarily from a $151.3 million goodwill impairment in the SCDE segment tied to a Space Force SCAR program stop-work order. Autonomous Systems revenue hit $278.7 million; SCDE $129.3 million. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $44.5 million from $21.8 million. BlueHalo contributed significantly to product ($85.1 million) and service ($91.4 million) revenue. The company narrowed FY2026 guidance to $1.85-$1.95 billion revenue (prior $1.95-$2.0 billion), non-GAAP EPS $2.75-$3.10 (prior $3.40-$3.55), and adjusted EBITDA $265-$285 million.
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Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
AVAV shares declined 2.5% on March 10, 2026, closing at $221.57 from $227.29, on elevated volume of 1.8 million shares. After-hours trading saw a sharper ~8% drop to around $204, reflecting disappointment over the EPS and revenue misses, lowered full-year guidance below Street forecasts (~$2.0 billion revenue, $3.3+ EPS), and the SCAR-related impairment. Sentiment turned cautious amid order timing issues and SCDE weakness, though robust backlog growth offered some offset. Analysts note ongoing BlueHalo integration risks but highlight strong autonomous systems demand.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Following Q3, AeroVironment anticipates record Q4 revenue to meet FY2026 guidance of $1.85-$1.95 billion, implying 12% pro forma growth over FY2025's $1.69 billion. Non-GAAP EPS targets $2.75-$3.10, with adjusted EBITDA $265-$285 million (~14.5% midpoint margin), assuming Q4 EBITDA margins of 21-24%, IRAD at 6-7%, and adjusted SG&A 12-14%. Funded backlog of $1.1 billion and $3.0 billion unfunded (including $1.4 billion SCAR options now at risk) provide 98% visibility to midpoint. Key monitors include Autonomous Systems demand for loitering munitions like Switchblade amid Ukraine/Israel needs, SCDE recovery post-SCAR stop-work, and BlueHalo synergies in scaling production. Watch government funding delays, contract awards ($4.5 billion nine-month total), inventory levels, deal/integration costs ($40-45 million), and capex (5-7% of revenue) for cloud/software/integration. Commercialization of platforms could lift margins, while defense budget priorities signal multibillion opportunities in counter-UAS and directed energy. Balanced execution on backlog conversion remains critical.
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AVAV's Stochastic Oscillator sits in oversold zone for 1 day
Be on the lookout for a price bounce soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AVAV's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AVAV just turned positive on April 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where AVAV's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AVAV advanced for three days, in of 298 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
AVAV may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on March 17, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AVAV as a result. In of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The 50-day moving average for AVAV moved below the 200-day moving average on March 18, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AVAV declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for AVAV entered a downward trend on April 10, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AVAV’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AVAV’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 62, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.129) is normal, around the industry mean (9.270). P/E Ratio (149.026) is within average values for comparable stocks, (70.885). AVAV's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (2.063). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.869) is also within normal values, averaging (158.926).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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General Information
a developer of unmanned aircraft and charging systems
Industry AerospaceDefense