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AXP vs OBDC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? American Express (AXP) vs. Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- American Express (AXP) delivered record full-year 2025 revenue of $72.2 billion, up 10% year-over-year, driven by resilient premium consumer spending and double-digit card fee growth.
- Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) offers a strikingly different value proposition with an approximate 10% annualized dividend yield on net asset value (NAV), appealing primarily to income-oriented investors.
- AXP trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of roughly 20x, reflecting its premium brand and earnings visibility, while OBDC trades at a deep discount to NAV, signaling market skepticism around private credit valuations.
- Credit quality trends are diverging: AXP maintains best-in-class net write-off rates around 2.0%, while OBDC faces modest markdowns on watchlist names and earnings pressure from declining base rates.
- Recent analyst activity paints a mixed picture: JPMorgan upgraded AXP to Overweight with a $400 price target, while OBDC carries a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell) amid persistent headwinds in the business development company (BDC) sector.
- These two stocks occupy fundamentally different segments of the financial services ecosystem, making this comparison valuable for investors weighing growth-and-quality exposure against deep-value income opportunities.
Introduction
Comparing American Express (AXP) and Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) may, at first glance, seem unusual. One is a 175-year-old global payments giant with a market capitalization exceeding $240 billion; the other is a business development company (BDC — a regulated investment vehicle that lends to mid-sized companies) with a portfolio of senior secured loans valued at roughly $16.5 billion. Yet both operate at the intersection of credit markets and consumer and corporate balance sheets, and both face the same shifting macroeconomic landscape of evolving interest rates, inflationary crosscurrents, and evolving credit cycles. This comparison is relevant for investors seeking to understand how a blue-chip growth compounder stacks up against a high-yield, deeply discounted income vehicle in the current market environment.
AXP Overview and Recent Performance
American Express (AXP) is a globally integrated payments company whose business model revolves around a closed-loop network — meaning it acts as both card issuer and transaction processor — supported by a premium, fee-based membership model. The company primarily serves affluent consumers, small businesses, and corporate clients, providing credit and charge cards alongside travel, lifestyle, and expense management services.
In recent months, AXP has demonstrated notable resilience. Full-year 2025 results showed revenues reaching $72.2 billion, a 10% increase year-over-year, with earnings per share (EPS) of $15.38. Card Member spending remained robust, accelerating in the fourth quarter, while net card fee revenues posted double-digit growth for a 30th consecutive quarter. The company also announced plans to raise its quarterly dividend by approximately 16% to $0.95 per share. In July 2026, JPMorgan upgraded the stock to Overweight and raised its price target to $400, citing the defensive characteristics of AmEx's affluent customer base — a demographic relatively insulated from inflationary pressures affecting lower- and middle-income households. Despite these positives, the stock has pulled back from its 52-week high of $387.49, trading near $355 in mid-July, partly reflecting broader market rotation and some caution around elevated operating expenses tied to product refreshes.
OBDC Overview and Recent Performance
Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) is a publicly traded BDC externally managed by an affiliate of Blue Owl Capital Inc. The company specializes in direct lending to upper-middle-market U.S. companies, with a portfolio heavily concentrated in first-lien senior secured loans — a structure designed to prioritize capital preservation and steady income generation. As of year-end 2025, OBDC held investments across 234 portfolio companies with an aggregate fair value of $16.5 billion, and approximately 96% of its debt investments were floating-rate instruments.
Recent performance has been mixed. Adjusted net investment income (NII — the BDC equivalent of operating earnings) per share was $0.36 in the fourth quarter of 2025, consistent with the prior quarter but down roughly 23% year-over-year, pressured by lower base rates flowing through its floating-rate portfolio and tighter lending spreads. NAV per share edged down to $14.81 from $14.89, primarily due to credit-related markdowns on a small number of watchlist positions. On the positive side, the company executed a significant $1.4 billion asset sale across Blue Owl-managed BDCs at near-par book value, repurchased approximately $148 million of its own stock at an average 14% discount to NAV, and received a Moody's upgrade to Baa2 in January 2026. The terminated merger with OBDC II, however, left some strategic uncertainty hanging over the stock. Shares have traded at a persistent discount to NAV, recently near $10.74, representing a compelling entry point for some income investors but also signaling market concerns about sector-wide headwinds.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The contrast between these two companies could hardly be starker. American Express operates a capital-light, fee-driven business model that generates industry-leading returns on equity (ROE — a measure of profitability relative to shareholder capital) of approximately 34%. Its revenue streams are diversified across discount fees, card fees, and net interest income, and its brand power creates durable competitive advantages. The main risk factors include consumer spending sensitivity to economic downturns and regulatory proposals such as potential caps on credit card interest rates.
Blue Owl Capital Corporation, by contrast, operates a capital-intensive lending model where profitability is directly tied to the spread between portfolio yields and funding costs. With 96% of debt investments at floating rates, OBDC is highly rate-sensitive — a tailwind when rates rise but a clear headwind in a falling-rate environment. The company's 10% dividend yield on NAV far exceeds AXP's modest 1.07% yield, but this comes with materially different risk dynamics, including mark-to-market volatility on illiquid private credit positions, leverage at 1.19x net debt-to-equity, and sensitivity to borrower credit deterioration in an economic slowdown.
From a market sentiment standpoint, AXP commands a premium valuation and analyst optimism tied to franchise durability, while OBDC trades at a discount that reflects broader private credit skepticism and sector rotation away from rate-sensitive BDCs. Growth investors gravitate toward AXP; income-focused and value-conscious investors may find OBDC's risk-reward profile more intriguing.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, earnings momentum, and relative stability of the underlying business model, Tickeron's AI would likely favor American Express (AXP) in the current environment. The company's consistent revenue growth trajectory, double-digit card fee expansion spanning 30 consecutive quarters, rising return of capital to shareholders, and a recent analyst upgrade all indicate a constructive trend regime. While OBDC's deep discount to NAV and aggressive share repurchases at 86% of book value suggest management conviction and potential upside, the combination of declining adjusted NII, spread compression from lower base rates, and persistent sector-wide headwinds creates a less favorable probabilistic setup in the near term. That said, this assessment is not a definitive prediction — markets evolve, and a reversal in rate expectations or a re-rating of BDC sector valuations could shift the calculus meaningfully.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AXP is a Hold and OBDC is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AXP’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileOBDC’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- AXP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- OBDC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AXP’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while OBDC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AXP’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- OBDC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AXP (@Savings Banks) experienced а +1.36% price change this week, while OBDC (@Investment Managers) price change was +0.27% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Savings Banks industry was -0.80%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.95%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.56%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was -0.13%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.91%, and the average quarterly price growth was -10.24%.
Reported Earning Dates
AXP is expected to report earnings on Jul 24, 2026.
OBDC is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Savings Banks (-0.80% weekly)A savings bank primary function is to take deposits and paying interest on those deposits. Originating in Europe during the 18th century, these banks were generally introduced to incentivize people of all stripes to save money and park them with banks. By the 1990s, the internet ushered in online savings banks that allowed savers to deposit/transact with banks digitally, without requiring to visit a branch office. Savings banks have potentially encouraged lower-income population to save and have access to a financial institution to earn interest on their money. New York Community Bancorp, Inc, Webster Financial Corporation, Washington Federal, Inc. are examples of savings banks.
@Investment Managers (-0.13% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
| AXP | OBDC | AXP / OBDC | |
| Capitalization | 242B | 5.45B | 4,437% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | -3.164 | -5.858 | 54% |
| P/E Ratio | 22.18 | 15.70 | 141% |
| Revenue | 74.2B | 445M | 16,674% |
| Total Cash | 3.18B | 442M | 719% |
| Total Debt | 60.4B | 8.46B | 714% |
AXP | OBDC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 23 | 35 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 96 Overvalued | 4 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 19 | 52 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 5 | 32 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 15 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
OBDC's Valuation (4) in the null industry is significantly better than the same rating for AXP (96) in the Financial Conglomerates industry. This means that OBDC’s stock grew significantly faster than AXP’s over the last 12 months.
AXP's Profit vs Risk Rating (19) in the Financial Conglomerates industry is somewhat better than the same rating for OBDC (52) in the null industry. This means that AXP’s stock grew somewhat faster than OBDC’s over the last 12 months.
AXP's SMR Rating (5) in the Financial Conglomerates industry is in the same range as OBDC (32) in the null industry. This means that AXP’s stock grew similarly to OBDC’s over the last 12 months.
AXP's Price Growth Rating (49) in the Financial Conglomerates industry is in the same range as OBDC (58) in the null industry. This means that AXP’s stock grew similarly to OBDC’s over the last 12 months.
OBDC's P/E Growth Rating (15) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AXP (49) in the Financial Conglomerates industry. This means that OBDC’s stock grew somewhat faster than AXP’s over the last 12 months.
| AXP | OBDC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 47% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 46% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 44% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 43% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 40% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 43% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 63% | 11 days ago 42% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 56% | 3 days ago 45% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 59% |
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OBDC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, OBDC has been closely correlated with ARCC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if OBDC jumps, then ARCC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To OBDC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OBDC | 100% | -1.79% | ||
| ARCC - OBDC | 80% Closely correlated | -0.21% | ||
| BXSL - OBDC | 76% Closely correlated | -1.53% | ||
| GBDC - OBDC | 74% Closely correlated | -2.03% | ||
| MSDL - OBDC | 73% Closely correlated | -1.84% | ||
| NCDL - OBDC | 70% Closely correlated | -2.31% | ||
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