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BANF vs BUSE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BancFirst Corporation (BANF) vs. First Busey Corporation (BUSE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both BANF and BUSE are U.S. regional bank holding companies, but they operate in distinct geographies with different growth strategies.
- BANF carries a notably higher valuation and a much stronger capital buffer, with a CET1 ratio (Common Equity Tier 1, a key measure of a bank's core capital strength) near 19%.
- BUSE trades at a lower earnings multiple and offers a higher dividend yield, partly reflecting its recent scale-building acquisition of CrossFirst Bankshares.
- On a year-to-date basis, BUSE has outperformed BANF, though both stocks have posted mixed performance in recent weeks.
- Both companies beat analyst earnings estimates in their most recent reported quarters, supported by steady net interest income and disciplined credit costs.
Introduction
Regional banks offer investors a window into local economic health, credit conditions, and interest-rate dynamics, making direct comparisons between similar lenders especially useful. This stock comparison examines BANF (BancFirst Corporation) and BUSE (First Busey Corporation), two well-capitalized financial institutions with comparable business models but different footprints and valuation profiles. For traders evaluating relative performance and market positioning, and for long-term investors weighing dividend income against capital efficiency, understanding how these two names diverge on growth, risk, and momentum can sharpen decision-making. The comparison also highlights how an AI-driven approach might assess which stock currently presents the more consistent, catalyst-rich setup.
BANF Overview and Recent Performance
BANF, BancFirst Corporation, is an Oklahoma City-based bank holding company serving retail customers and small-to-medium-sized businesses, primarily across Oklahoma and neighboring markets. In recent quarters, the company has delivered steady profitability, with net interest income expanding and earnings per share (EPS) rising year over year, supported by a widening net interest margin (NIM, the spread between interest earned on loans and interest paid on deposits). A key development has been its agreement to acquire SpiritBank, a privately held community bank that adds roughly $940 million in assets and deepens BancFirst's presence in the Tulsa area.
Despite solid fundamentals, BANF has lagged the broader market in recent weeks, with its share price remaining rangebound near the lower half of its 52-week range. Sentiment has been tempered by a premium valuation, a relatively modest dividend yield, and monitoring of asset quality as nonaccrual loans have ticked higher. Analysts have maintained a mostly neutral, "Hold"-type consensus, viewing the bank as conservatively managed but with limited near-term catalysts beyond integration of its recent acquisitions.
BUSE Overview and Recent Performance
BUSE, First Busey Corporation, is a financial holding company headquartered in Illinois, operating banking centers across Illinois, Missouri, Florida, and Indiana. Its business spans commercial and retail banking, wealth management, and payment technology solutions. The company's recent performance has been defined by its all-stock acquisition of CrossFirst Bankshares, a transaction that expanded its balance sheet, added fee-income streams, and unlocked cost synergies that have helped push its efficiency ratio (non-interest expenses as a share of revenue) below 55%.
BUSE has beaten analyst EPS estimates in consecutive quarters, aided by a recovering net interest margin, record wealth-management fee income, and reduced net charge-offs. The company has also returned meaningful capital to shareholders through buybacks and a higher dividend yield than many peers. Year to date, the stock has outperformed both the broader market and BANF, although its shares pulled back in recent market activity and now trade below short-term moving averages while remaining above longer-term levels.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrasts between these two banks lie in valuation, capital management, and growth strategy. BANF trades at a higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and holds a much larger capital cushion, with a CET1 ratio approaching 19%—reflecting a conservative, fortress-style balance sheet but a lower dividend yield near 2%. BUSE, by comparison, carries a lower earnings multiple, a dividend yield above 3.5%, and a more aggressive posture on mergers and acquisitions (M&A, or company purchases) and share buybacks, having retired a substantial portion of its outstanding shares in recent periods.
Geographic exposure also differs: BANF is concentrated in Oklahoma's energy-adjacent economy, while BUSE is diversified across several Midwestern states and Florida. On momentum, BUSE has shown stronger relative performance this year, though both names face the shared risk of interest-rate shifts and deposit-cost pressure that affect all regional lenders. Asset-quality trends warrant attention in both cases, though neither bank has signaled acute credit stress.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely express a modest, qualified preference for BUSE in the current environment. The combination of stronger year-to-date relative performance, consecutive earnings beats, an expanding net interest margin, and a higher income yield suggests more consistent near-term momentum and catalyst support. In contrast, BANF presents a steadier but slower-growth profile, with its premium valuation and lower yield weighing on relative positioning. That said, this remains a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive call: BANF's exceptional capital strength and conservative management could become more attractive if risk appetite fades. The AI's leaning should therefore be read as a relative, trend-based view rather than a forecast of guaranteed outperformance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BANF is a Hold and BUSE is a Hold.
BANF in -0.51% downward trend, declining for three consecutive days on October 14, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where BANF declined for three days, in 184 of 288 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 50-day moving average for BANF moved below the 200-day moving average on October 05, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
The Aroon Indicator for BANF entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 44 of 58 cases where BANF's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BANF as a result. In 56 of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BANF just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where BANF's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 40 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Following a +2.66% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BANF advanced for three days, in 201 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
BANF may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 66 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. BANF’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 81 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.842) is normal, around the industry mean (1.323). P/E Ratio (14.479) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.509). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.460) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.018) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.152) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
BUSE's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for BUSE entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 241 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 160 of the 241 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 17, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BUSE as a result. In 48 of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
BUSE moved below its 50-day moving average on September 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for BUSE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BUSE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BUSE's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 12 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 36 of 58 cases where BUSE's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Following a +2.06% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BUSE advanced for three days, in 162 of 289 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
BUSE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 26 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.031) is normal, around the industry mean (1.323). P/E Ratio (12.147) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.509). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.310) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.035) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.382) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BUSE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
BANF | BUSE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 60 | 86 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 81 Overvalued | 26 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 35 | 43 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 16 | 15 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 70 | 48 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 66 | 83 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BUSE's Valuation (26) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BANF (81). This means that BUSE’s stock grew somewhat faster than BANF’s over the last 12 months.
BANF's Profit vs Risk Rating (35) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as BUSE (43). This means that BANF’s stock grew similarly to BUSE’s over the last 12 months.
BUSE's SMR Rating (15) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as BANF (16). This means that BUSE’s stock grew similarly to BANF’s over the last 12 months.
BUSE's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as BANF (70). This means that BUSE’s stock grew similarly to BANF’s over the last 12 months.
BANF's P/E Growth Rating (66) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as BUSE (83). This means that BANF’s stock grew similarly to BUSE’s over the last 12 months.
| BANF | BUSE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 52% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 61% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 58% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 64% | 14 days ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 66% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BANF’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while BUSE’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- BANF’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- BUSE’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BANF’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while BUSE’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BANF’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- BUSE’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
BANF (@Regional Banks) experienced а +0.68% price change this week, while BUSE (@Regional Banks) price change was -0.07% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was -0.47%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.12%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.47%.
Reported Earning Dates
BANF is expected to report earnings on Oct 15, 2026.
BUSE is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (-0.47% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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BANF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BANF has been closely correlated with BUSE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BANF jumps, then BUSE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BANF | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BANF | 100% | +1.33% | ||
| BUSE - BANF | 82% Closely correlated | +1.07% | ||
| PRK - BANF | 82% Closely correlated | +1.42% | ||
| EFSC - BANF | 81% Closely correlated | +1.07% | ||
| UBSI - BANF | 81% Closely correlated | +1.79% | ||
| UCB - BANF | 81% Closely correlated | +2.68% | ||
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BUSE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BUSE has been closely correlated with EFSC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BUSE jumps, then EFSC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BUSE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUSE | 100% | +1.07% | ||
| EFSC - BUSE | 86% Closely correlated | +1.07% | ||
| SHBI - BUSE | 85% Closely correlated | +0.99% | ||
| BY - BUSE | 85% Closely correlated | +0.74% | ||
| FULT - BUSE | 85% Closely correlated | +2.29% | ||
| SRCE - BUSE | 85% Closely correlated | +1.48% | ||
More | ||||