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BMY vs MRK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) vs. Merck & Co. (MRK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BMY is leaning on its "Growth Portfolio" (newer oncology, cardiovascular, and immunology drugs) to offset declining legacy products facing generic competition.
- MRK has delivered a stronger year-to-date share-price rally, driven by pipeline momentum and new launches as it prepares for Keytruda's 2028 patent expiry.
- Both companies are large-cap pharmaceutical leaders, but their risk profiles differ: BMY is working through patent-cliff erosion, while MRK is digesting major acquisitions and a vaccine slowdown.
- Recent earnings show BMY beating estimates on revenue and EPS (earnings per share), while MRK posted a GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) loss tied to acquisition charges despite sales growth.
- Relative performance has diverged, with MRK showing more pronounced momentum and a higher valuation, while BMY trades at a lower multiple with steadier near-term fundamentals.
Introduction
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) and Merck & Co. (MRK) are two of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies, each with multibillion-dollar franchises in oncology and beyond. Comparing them is especially relevant for investors evaluating how drugmakers navigate patent expirations, pipeline transitions, and shifting market sentiment. This stock comparison is useful for long-term investors assessing relative performance and market positioning, as well as traders monitoring momentum and catalysts across the large-cap pharma sector. By examining recent financial results, growth drivers, and risk factors, readers can better understand the trade-offs between a steadier value-style name and a higher-momentum, more richly valued peer.
BMY Overview and Recent Performance
Bristol-Myers Squibb operates across oncology, cardiovascular, immunology, and neuroscience. In recent weeks, BMY has been defined by the contrast between its expanding Growth Portfolio and its shrinking Legacy Portfolio. Newer products such as Camzyos (a cardiovascular drug), Breyanzi (a cell therapy), and Reblozyl (an anemia treatment) have delivered strong double-digit sales growth, while blockbuster Eliquis, co-marketed with Pfizer, continues to generate demand-driven gains. At the same time, older drugs such as Revlimid, Pomalyst, Sprycel, and Abraxane are eroding under generic competition.
In its most recent quarters, BMY has reported results that exceeded analyst expectations, with revenue growth in the low single digits and improving profitability. Investor sentiment has been supported by a robust cost-cutting program and late-stage pipeline progress, including a newly approved multiple myeloma therapy and positive trial data. Still, shares have shown some volatility in recent market activity, and near-term price movement has moderated after a strong year-to-date advance. The company's outlook hinges on whether growth products can fully offset legacy declines.
MRK Overview and Recent Performance
Merck & Co. is best known for Keytruda, its blockbuster PD-1 cancer immunotherapy, which generated more than $16 billion in the first half of the year. In recent months, MRK has rallied sharply, reaching a fresh 52-week high on renewed confidence in its post-Keytruda strategy. Positive Phase III data for a personalized cancer vaccine combination with Moderna and steady momentum in newer products such as Winrevair (for pulmonary arterial hypertension) and Capvaxive (a pneumococcal vaccine) have reinforced investor optimism.
MRK has been reshaping its portfolio through acquisitions, including Verona Pharma in 2025 and Cidara Therapeutics and Terns Pharmaceuticals in 2026, adding respiratory, influenza, and hematology assets. However, these deals have also generated sizable one-time charges, contributing to a reported GAAP net loss in one recent quarter despite year-over-year sales growth. The company has raised its full-year revenue outlook, though profit guidance has been tempered by acquisition-related costs. While Keytruda faces loss of exclusivity in 2028, management points to a diversified pipeline it estimates could represent substantial long-term commercial opportunity.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ most clearly in momentum, valuation, and risk profile. On relative performance, MRK has posted a materially stronger year-to-date gain, while BMY has advanced more modestly after a volatile stretch. This gap is reflected in valuation: MRK trades at a premium forward P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio relative to industry averages, whereas BMY carries a lower multiple, partly reflecting its ongoing legacy-product erosion.
In terms of business model, both are diversified pharma franchises, but BMY's revenue mix is more concentrated in a handful of oncology and cardiovascular drugs, while MRK retains meaningful exposure to vaccines and animal health alongside its oncology franchise. Growth drivers also differ: BMY is executing an internal pipeline and cost-discipline story, while MRK leans more heavily on acquisitions and new launches to bridge the Keytruda patent cliff. Key risk factors include generic competition and inventory dynamics for BMY, versus acquisition integration and vaccine demand (notably Gardasil in China) for MRK. Market sentiment currently favors MRK's catalyst-rich narrative, though it carries a richer valuation.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, momentum, and catalyst positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor MRK in the current environment. The stock's established uptrend, fresh 52-week high, and steady stream of positive pipeline and regulatory developments suggest stronger relative momentum than BMY. That said, MRK's elevated valuation and acquisition-related earnings volatility introduce downside risk if catalysts disappoint. BMY, by contrast, offers more stable near-term fundamentals and a lower valuation but lacks the same trend strength. In probabilistic terms, an AI-driven model would tend to assign higher short- to medium-term conviction to MRK's trend, while recognizing that BMY's steadier earnings profile could appeal under different market conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BMY is a Hold and MRK is a Buy.
BMY in downward trend: 10-day moving average moved below 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026
The 10-day moving average for BMY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
BMY moved below its 50-day moving average on September 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BMY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator for BMY entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BMY's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 14 of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 19, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BMY as a result. In 45 of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 49%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BMY just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where BMY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 24 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 48%.
Following a +6.88% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BMY advanced for three days, in 174 of 310 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
BMY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BMY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 74 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BMY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 61, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.594) is normal, around the industry mean (-3.196). P/E Ratio (13.404) is within average values for comparable stocks, (21.213). BMY's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (17.786) is slightly higher than the industry average of (5.738). Dividend Yield (0.041) settles around the average of (0.041) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.642) is also within normal values, averaging (4.033).
MRK in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on October 05, 2026
MRK may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 24 of 35 cases where MRK's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 33 of 52 cases where MRK's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MRK as a result. In 51 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MRK just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where MRK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
MRK moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +4.35% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MRK advanced for three days, in 192 of 339 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for MRK crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 5 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 31%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MRK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. MRK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 61, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (8.818) is normal, around the industry mean (-3.196). MRK's P/E Ratio (118.952) is considerably higher than the industry average of (21.213). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.716) is also within normal values, averaging (5.738). Dividend Yield (0.023) settles around the average of (0.041) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.402) is also within normal values, averaging (4.033).
BMY | MRK | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 62 | 82 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 74 | 28 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 22 | 79 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 9 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 68 | 1 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MRK's Valuation (88) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as BMY (94). This means that MRK’s stock grew similarly to BMY’s over the last 12 months.
MRK's Profit vs Risk Rating (28) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BMY (74). This means that MRK’s stock grew somewhat faster than BMY’s over the last 12 months.
BMY's SMR Rating (22) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MRK (79). This means that BMY’s stock grew somewhat faster than MRK’s over the last 12 months.
MRK's Price Growth Rating (9) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BMY (43). This means that MRK’s stock grew somewhat faster than BMY’s over the last 12 months.
MRK's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is significantly better than the same rating for BMY (68). This means that MRK’s stock grew significantly faster than BMY’s over the last 12 months.
| BMY | MRK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 61% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 55% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 57% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 54% | 10 days ago 51% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | N/A |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BMY’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while MRK’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- BMY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MRK’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BMY’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MRK’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BMY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MRK’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 2 bearish.
Price Growth
BMY (@Pharmaceuticals: Major) experienced а +3.10% price change this week, while MRK (@Pharmaceuticals: Major) price change was +1.70% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Pharmaceuticals: Major industry was +0.74%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.01%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.52%.
Reported Earning Dates
BMY is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
MRK is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Pharmaceuticals: Major (+0.74% weekly)The Major Pharmaceuticals industry includes companies that are involved in various processes of creating drugs to treat/prevent diseases. These companies engage in research, testing and manufacturing, as well as the distribution of pharmaceuticals into markets. Johnson & Johnson, Merck & Co., Inc., Pfizer Inc. and Novartis are among the largest companies in this category.
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BMY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BMY has been loosely correlated with PFE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if BMY jumps, then PFE could also see price increases.
MRK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MRK has been loosely correlated with JNJ. These tickers have moved in lockstep 51% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MRK jumps, then JNJ could also see price increases.