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BP vs XOM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BP PLC (BP) vs. ExxonMobil (XOM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both BP and XOM have rallied sharply in recent months on elevated crude prices and surging refining margins, but XOM carries far greater scale, with a market capitalization roughly six times that of BP.
- BP hit its net-debt target roughly a year early, while XOM continues to expand high-margin production in the Permian Basin and Guyana.
- BP flagged $3 billion to $4.5 billion in impairments tied to its gas and low-carbon energy segment, a contrast to XOM's more oil-and-gas-centered positioning.
- BP offers a notably higher dividend yield (above 4%), while XOM trades at a richer valuation with a lower yield (near 2.3%).
- For more detail on each company's latest headlines and daily price action, explore BP Major News and BP Today's Price Move, as well as XOM Major News and XOM Today's Price Move.
- For an automated, data-driven perspective on these and other tickers, explore the Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Investors weighing exposure to integrated energy often compare BP and XOM as two benchmarks of the oil-and-gas supermajor class. Both generate cash across upstream production, refining, and marketing, yet they differ sharply in scale, strategy, and shareholder-return profile. This stock comparison is most relevant to traders and longer-term investors tracking the energy cycle, refining margins, and balance-sheet resilience. With crude benchmarks elevated by geopolitical supply disruptions and refining spreads widening, both names have posted strong relative performance in recent weeks, making the question of market positioning timely for anyone rotating within the sector.
BP Overview and Recent Performance
BP (BP p.l.c.) is a British integrated energy company whose operations span upstream oil and gas, refining, trading, retail fuels, convenience stores, and a scaled-back portfolio of lower-carbon ventures. In recent weeks the shares have climbed to multi-year highs, extending a rally of more than 40% over the trailing 12 months. The advance has been driven by sharply stronger realized refining margins and an improving balance sheet. BP reported that its indicative refining margin surged to roughly $46.70 per barrel in its latest quarter, up from about $29.60 in the prior quarter. At the same time, the company guided that net debt fell to between $13.5 billion and $14.5 billion, down from roughly $22.3 billion, reaching its debt-reduction target about a year ahead of schedule. These positives were partly offset by $3 billion to $4.5 billion in non-cash impairments tied to its gas and low-carbon energy segment, a reminder of earlier transition spending now being written down.
XOM Overview and Recent Performance
XOM (Exxon Mobil Corporation) is one of the world's largest integrated energy and chemical companies, with a market capitalization above $750 billion. Its shares have also risen to record territory in recent weeks, gaining roughly 46% to 55% year to date. Like BP, XOM has benefited from a favorable refining environment; management has indicated that stronger refining margins could add around $4.5 billion to its latest quarterly earnings relative to the prior period. Beyond cyclical tailwinds, XOM continues to add low-cost supply, including a fifth Guyana floating production vessel and roughly 9% annual Permian Basin growth targets through 2030. Analysts have raised price targets in recent weeks, reflecting confidence in earnings durability, though the stock's valuation and modest dividend yield reflect expectations already priced into the shares.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron operates hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, but only a curated subset earns a place in the Trending AI Robots section. These bots differ in trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance history, and the specific sets of tickers they follow, allowing users to screen for approaches suited to current market conditions. The page highlights the bots currently generating the most consistent signals, giving traders a way to observe how data-driven systems are positioned across names like BP and XOM. Exploring the Trending AI Robots can help investors evaluate which automated strategies are best aligned with today's market environment.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two stocks is scale and focus. XOM is a much larger, more diversified enterprise with a heavy emphasis on upstream oil and gas growth and integrated downstream operations, while BP is mid-sized by supermajor standards and has been actively resetting its strategy back toward oil and gas after scaling down its low-carbon ambitions. On shareholder returns, BP currently offers a higher dividend yield above 4%, whereas XOM yields closer to 2.3% but pairs its payout with larger buybacks and a stronger balance sheet. Risk profiles also diverge: BP carries residual exposure to transition-related write-downs, while XOM's risks center on project execution and commodity-price sensitivity. Both remain leveraged to refining spreads and geopolitical oil supply, so their recent momentum is highly correlated even as their underlying market positioning differs.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor XOM for trend consistency and stability, given its larger scale, more diversified cash generation, stronger balance sheet, and visible production-growth catalysts in the Permian and Guyana. At the same time, BP presents a potentially more attractive income and re-rating story on the back of its faster deleveraging and higher dividend yield. The AI's assessment would likely emphasize that XOM offers steadier relative positioning, while BP offers a higher-yield, turnaround-oriented alternative whose appeal may depend on the upcoming strategy update and the durability of refining margins.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BP is a Hold and XOM is a Hold.
BP's RSI Indicator peaks and leaves overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Oscillator for BP moved out of overbought territory on October 26, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 38 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 24 of the 38 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 63%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BP as a result. In 48 of 101 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 48%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BP turned negative on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 60%.
BP moved below its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.21% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BP advanced for three days, in 213 of 355 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
BP may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 194 of 282 cases where BP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 69%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 30, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 54 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.963) is normal, around the industry mean (1.508). BP has a moderately high P/E Ratio (21.072) as compared to the industry average of (10.200). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.058) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). Dividend Yield (0.046) settles around the average of (0.053) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.548) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 74 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
XOM's Stochastic Oscillator is staying in oversold zone for 3 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +2.87% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XOM advanced for three days, in 232 of 371 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
XOM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 192 of 312 cases where XOM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for XOM moved out of overbought territory on November 02, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 41 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 49%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 03, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on XOM as a result. In 49 of 92 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for XOM turned negative on November 03, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 31 of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 61%.
XOM moved below its 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XOM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 30, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. XOM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 87 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: XOM's P/B Ratio (2.630) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.508). XOM has a moderately high P/E Ratio (21.347) as compared to the industry average of (10.200). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.392) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.053) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.911) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
BP | XOM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 88 | 84 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 54 Fair valued | 87 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 18 | 5 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 74 | 62 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 28 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 94 | 17 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BP's Valuation (54) in the Integrated Oil industry is somewhat better than the same rating for XOM (87). This means that BP’s stock grew somewhat faster than XOM’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's Profit vs Risk Rating (5) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (18). This means that XOM’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's SMR Rating (62) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (74). This means that XOM’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's Price Growth Rating (28) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (45). This means that XOM’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's P/E Growth Rating (17) in the Integrated Oil industry is significantly better than the same rating for BP (94). This means that XOM’s stock grew significantly faster than BP’s over the last 12 months.
| BP | XOM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 49% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 53% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 43% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 43% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 60% | 12 days ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 50% | 6 days ago 44% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 62% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BP’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while XOM’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- BP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- XOM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while XOM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- XOM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
BP (@Integrated Oil) experienced а -6.87% price change this week, while XOM (@Integrated Oil) price change was -8.32% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was -9.07%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.92%, and the average quarterly price growth was -2.16%.
Reported Earning Dates
BP is expected to report earnings on Feb 09, 2027.
XOM is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (-9.07% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
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XOM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, XOM has been closely correlated with CVX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if XOM jumps, then CVX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To XOM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 100% | -0.69% | ||
| CVX - XOM | 83% Closely correlated | -0.86% | ||
| EQNR - XOM | 75% Closely correlated | -2.07% | ||
| BP - XOM | 73% Closely correlated | +0.13% | ||
| CVE - XOM | 71% Closely correlated | +0.51% | ||
| SHEL - XOM | 70% Closely correlated | -0.21% | ||
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