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BP vs XOM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BP p.l.c. (BP) vs. Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BP p.l.c. (BP) and Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) are leading integrated energy companies with exposure to upstream production, refining, and downstream operations amid volatile oil and gas markets.
- Both stocks delivered strong year-to-date gains through late July 2026, with BP advancing approximately 29-33% and XOM rising about 31%, supported by elevated commodity prices.
- BP reported expectations for improved second-quarter 2026 earnings driven by higher oil and refining margins, though upstream output declined due to seasonal maintenance.
- XOM posted robust second-quarter 2026 results with net income of $14.5 billion, reflecting strength in refining margins and Permian Basin production.
- XOM maintains larger scale with higher revenue, EBITDA, and market capitalization compared to BP, while BP shows a higher price-to-earnings ratio.
- Market sentiment for both has been influenced by global energy price dynamics and company-specific operational updates in recent weeks.
Introduction
Integrated oil and gas majors BP p.l.c. (BP) and Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) offer investors exposure to the energy sector through diversified operations spanning exploration, production, refining, and marketing. This comparison examines their relative performance, business profiles, and positioning in the current market environment, where commodity price fluctuations and operational execution remain key variables. The analysis is relevant for traders and investors seeking to understand sector dynamics, evaluate momentum differences, and assess risk-return trade-offs between two established energy equities. Data draws from recent financial disclosures and market activity to provide a factual basis for relative evaluation.
BP Overview and Recent Performance
BP p.l.c. (BP) operates as a global integrated energy company with significant upstream, downstream, and low-carbon activities. In recent market activity, the stock has shown resilience, closing near $45.22 on July 31, 2026, with year-to-date gains in the 29-33% range. Second-quarter 2026 trading updates highlighted expectations for stronger earnings from elevated oil prices, robust trading, and improved refining margins, partially offsetting lower upstream production due to seasonal maintenance. Brent crude averaged higher in the quarter compared to prior periods, supporting sentiment. Shares have responded to these developments alongside broader energy sector movements, reflecting the company's sensitivity to commodity cycles and operational guidance.
XOM Overview and Recent Performance
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is a major integrated energy firm with extensive upstream operations, particularly in the Permian Basin, alongside refining and chemicals businesses. The stock traded around $155 as of late July 2026, delivering year-to-date returns near 31%. Second-quarter 2026 results featured net income of $14.5 billion, more than doubling year-over-year, driven by strong refining margins and production volumes. Recent market activity has incorporated these earnings alongside ongoing energy price influences, with the company noting global refinery constraints. Performance has aligned with sector trends while demonstrating scale advantages in key basins.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
BP p.l.c. (BP) and Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) share integrated business models but differ in scale and emphasis. XOM reports substantially higher revenue and EBITDA, reflecting broader operational reach, while BP carries a higher price-to-earnings ratio. Growth drivers include commodity prices for both, with XOM benefiting from Permian production strength and BP noting trading and refining contributions. Recent momentum has favored both amid energy price rallies, though XOM demonstrated larger absolute earnings gains in the latest quarter. Risk factors encompass oil price volatility, regulatory shifts, and execution on maintenance or expansion plans. Sector exposure remains concentrated in energy for each, with market sentiment tied to macroeconomic and geopolitical influences on supply and demand. Trade-offs center on XOM’s size and earnings stability versus BP’s potentially higher valuation multiples in certain environments.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency in recent performance, earnings scale, and relative positioning within the energy sector, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a probabilistic edge to Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) over BP p.l.c. (BP). Stronger absolute earnings delivery and production stability provide a foundation for more consistent momentum, though outcomes remain dependent on sustained commodity conditions and operational execution. This assessment reflects data-driven evaluation rather than certainty.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BP is a StrongBuy and XOM is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BP’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileXOM’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- BP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- XOM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BP’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while XOM’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- XOM’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BP (@Integrated Oil) experienced а +4.17% price change this week, while XOM (@Integrated Oil) price change was +5.36% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was +0.99%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +6.34%, and the average quarterly price growth was +18.12%.
Reported Earning Dates
BP is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
XOM is expected to report earnings on Oct 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (+0.99% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
| BP | XOM | BP / XOM | |
| Capitalization | 112B | 657B | 17% |
| EBITDA | 35B | 64.4B | 54% |
| Gain YTD | 26.646 | 34.541 | 77% |
| P/E Ratio | 20.51 | 20.56 | 100% |
| Revenue | 195B | 326B | 60% |
| Total Cash | 35.8B | 8.44B | 424% |
| Total Debt | 74.2B | 47.7B | 156% |
BP | XOM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 21 | 81 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 26 Undervalued | 65 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 21 | 9 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 84 | 73 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 18 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 100 | 21 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BP's Valuation (26) in the Integrated Oil industry is somewhat better than the same rating for XOM (65). This means that BP’s stock grew somewhat faster than XOM’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (21). This means that XOM’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's SMR Rating (73) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (84). This means that XOM’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's Price Growth Rating (18) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (45). This means that XOM’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's P/E Growth Rating (21) in the Integrated Oil industry is significantly better than the same rating for BP (100). This means that XOM’s stock grew significantly faster than BP’s over the last 12 months.
| BP | XOM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 52% | 9 days ago 44% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 58% |
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BP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BP has been closely correlated with SHEL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BP jumps, then SHEL could also see price increases.
XOM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, XOM has been closely correlated with CVX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if XOM jumps, then CVX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To XOM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 100% | -0.03% | ||
| CVX - XOM | 83% Closely correlated | -0.03% | ||
| EQNR - XOM | 72% Closely correlated | +0.15% | ||
| BP - XOM | 71% Closely correlated | -0.53% | ||
| CVE - XOM | 70% Closely correlated | +1.11% | ||
| CRGY - XOM | 69% Closely correlated | -2.90% | ||
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