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BP vs XOM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BP p.l.c. (BP) vs. Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BP has delivered stronger year-to-date returns of approximately 34% compared to XOM's 26%, driven by exceptional oil trading profits in recent quarters.
- Recent geopolitical tensions have boosted oil prices, benefiting BP's trading operations more prominently, with Q1 2026 underlying profits doubling to $3.2 billion.
- XOM offers greater scale with a market capitalization over $627 billion versus BP's $118 billion, supporting steadier dividend payouts.
- BP provides a higher dividend yield at 4.34% compared to XOM's 2.78%, appealing to income-focused investors.
- While XOM has pulled back around 12% in the past month amid market volatility, BP has surged, leading supermajors in recent performance.
- Both stocks benefit from elevated oil prices, but BP shows superior short-term momentum.
Introduction
BP p.l.c. (BP) and Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) are leading integrated energy companies operating in exploration, production, refining, and trading of oil and natural gas. This comparison is particularly relevant for traders and investors navigating the volatile energy sector, where geopolitical events and oil price fluctuations drive performance. Value investors may eye their dividend yields, while momentum traders focus on recent price trends. Growth-oriented portfolios could assess their strategies amid shifting market conditions, including elevated crude prices from Middle East tensions. Understanding their relative strengths aids in portfolio diversification within oil majors.
BP Overview and Recent Performance
BP p.l.c. is a global integrated energy firm headquartered in London, engaged in oil and gas production, refining, trading, and low-carbon initiatives like renewables and hydrogen. In recent market activity, BP shares have surged, climbing over 30% year-to-date and approximately 20% since heightened Middle East tensions escalated oil prices. This momentum stems from a standout Q1 2026, where underlying profits more than doubled to $3.2 billion, exceeding expectations due to exceptional oil trading gains amid the price spike to around $81 per barrel for Brent crude. Positive analyst updates, including raised price targets, have bolstered sentiment, with the stock trading near its 52-week high of $48.27. Factors like robust midstream performance and geopolitical-driven volatility have influenced this upward trend, though higher debt levels warrant monitoring.
XOM Overview and Recent Performance
Exxon Mobil Corporation, based in Spring, Texas, is one of the world's largest integrated oil and gas companies, with operations spanning upstream exploration, energy products, chemicals, and specialty items. XOM shares have advanced about 26% year-to-date but experienced a pullback of roughly 12% over the past month, retreating from a 52-week high of $176.41 amid broader market volatility and anticipation of upcoming earnings. The company emphasizes high-quality assets, cost discipline, and reliable dividends, supported by strong cash flows despite fluctuating oil prices. Recent news highlights strategic asset sales and focus on growth areas like carbon capture, while analysts maintain positive outlooks with average price targets around $166. Sentiment reflects caution ahead of Q1 results, tempered by its massive scale and diversified operations.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both BP and XOM operate integrated business models, blending upstream production with downstream refining and trading, but XOM boasts superior scale and a stronger balance sheet, evidenced by its fivefold larger market cap and lower debt ratios. Growth drivers differ: BP leverages trading agility in volatile oil markets, while XOM prioritizes U.S.-centric upstream expansions and low-emission technologies. Recent momentum favors BP, with sharper gains amid price rallies, versus XOM's consolidation. Risk factors include BP's higher leverage and transition costs, contrasted by XOM's dividend stability. Sector exposure is similar in oil dependency, but market sentiment tilts toward BP post-earnings beat, highlighting trade-offs in yield versus size.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI analysis currently leans toward BP over XOM in the near term, based on superior trend consistency, earnings momentum from oil trading catalysts, and relative outperformance in recent weeks. BP's higher yield and price positioning amid elevated crude suggest probabilistic upside, though XOM remains attractive for stability and scale. This assessment reflects observable data patterns rather than guarantees.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BP is a StrongBuy and XOM is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BP’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileXOM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- BP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- XOM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while XOM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- XOM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
BP (@Integrated Oil) experienced а -0.44% price change this week, while XOM (@Integrated Oil) price change was -1.94% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was -0.04%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.12%, and the average quarterly price growth was +29.00%.
Reported Earning Dates
BP is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
XOM is expected to report earnings on Jul 24, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (-0.04% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
| BP | XOM | BP / XOM | |
| Capitalization | 113B | 609B | 19% |
| EBITDA | 35B | 64.4B | 54% |
| Gain YTD | 26.204 | 23.811 | 110% |
| P/E Ratio | 34.61 | 24.75 | 140% |
| Revenue | 195B | 326B | 60% |
| Total Cash | 35.8B | 8.44B | 424% |
| Total Debt | 74.2B | 47.7B | 156% |
BP | XOM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 7 | 72 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 24 Undervalued | 44 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 23 | 7 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 84 | 73 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 48 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 99 | 15 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 55 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BP's Valuation (24) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as XOM (44). This means that BP’s stock grew similarly to XOM’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's Profit vs Risk Rating (7) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (23). This means that XOM’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's SMR Rating (73) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (84). This means that XOM’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
BP's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as XOM (48). This means that BP’s stock grew similarly to XOM’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's P/E Growth Rating (15) in the Integrated Oil industry is significantly better than the same rating for BP (99). This means that XOM’s stock grew significantly faster than BP’s over the last 12 months.
| BP | XOM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 71% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 61% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 51% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 45% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 59% | 11 days ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 51% | 9 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 62% |
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BP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BP has been closely correlated with SHEL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BP jumps, then SHEL could also see price increases.
XOM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, XOM has been closely correlated with CVX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if XOM jumps, then CVX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To XOM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 100% | +0.28% | ||
| CVX - XOM | 82% Closely correlated | +0.75% | ||
| EQNR - XOM | 70% Closely correlated | -1.55% | ||
| CRGY - XOM | 69% Closely correlated | +0.87% | ||
| CVE - XOM | 69% Closely correlated | -0.74% | ||
| BP - XOM | 68% Closely correlated | +0.23% | ||
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