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BP vs XOM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BP p.l.c. (BP) vs. Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BP is reducing net debt sharply, guided to $13.5–$14.5 billion for the third quarter, roughly a year ahead of its prior target, helped by stronger refining margins and asset sales.
- XOM posted adjusted earnings of $14.7 billion in its most recent quarter, supported by record Permian Basin output, Guyana growth, and its first liquefied natural gas (LNG) production at Golden Pass.
- Both stocks have rallied strongly, but their drivers differ: BP is benefiting from trading and refining strength, while XOM leans on structural cost savings, advantaged assets, and shareholder returns.
- BP carries a balance-sheet and low-carbon impairment overhang, whereas XOM trades at a premium valuation with analysts flagging potential near-term earnings normalization.
- The relative comparison hinges on whether investors favor a turnaround story (BP) or an established, scale-driven compounder (XOM).
Introduction
Two of the world's largest integrated energy companies are drawing renewed investor attention amid volatile oil markets and shifting corporate strategies. BP p.l.c. and Exxon Mobil Corporation both operate across the energy value chain, yet their recent performance and positioning tell different stories. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors weighing a European turnaround candidate against a U.S.-listed energy giant with deep structural advantages. Understanding their relative performance, market positioning, and catalysts can help frame how each name may behave across market cycles.
BP Overview and Recent Performance
BP is a London-based integrated oil and gas major whose business spans upstream production, refining, and fuel marketing, alongside a gas and low-carbon energy segment. In recent weeks, the company's relative performance has been supported by a sharp improvement in refining margins and resilient trading results. BP indicated its third-quarter refining margin reached roughly $46.70 per barrel, up from $29.60 in the prior quarter, with gas marketing and trading expected to come in significantly stronger.
A central theme in recent market activity has been deleveraging. BP guided to net debt of $13.5–$14.5 billion at the end of September, down from $22.3 billion three months earlier, reaching its debt-reduction goal roughly a year early. However, the company also flagged non-cash impairments of $3–$4.5 billion tied largely to its transition businesses in gas and low-carbon energy, reflecting its broader pivot back toward core oil and gas. Under a new chief executive, BP is scheduled to unveil an updated strategy, making the coming period a potential catalyst for sentiment.
XOM Overview and Recent Performance
XOM, Exxon Mobil Corporation, is a U.S.-based integrated energy company with one of the industry's largest and most diversified global portfolios, spanning upstream, refining, chemicals, and lower-carbon solutions. In recent quarters, the company reported adjusted earnings of $14.7 billion, a sharp increase from the prior quarter, driven by strong product margins and advantaged volume growth.
Key drivers include record production in the Permian Basin, expansion in Guyana, and the start of first LNG production at the Golden Pass facility. ExxonMobil has also emphasized structural cost savings of roughly $16.3 billion since 2019 and returned substantial cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. The stock has advanced notably over the past year and trades near the upper end of its 52-week range. Still, analysts note that the shares carry a premium valuation relative to sector peers, which introduces sensitivity to any normalization in commodity prices.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ in several meaningful ways. Business model: both are integrated, but XOM operates a larger, more diversified asset base with a stronger chemicals footprint and a lower-cost portfolio, while BP is relatively smaller and has been repositioning away from its earlier low-carbon ambitions.
Growth drivers: XOM's momentum is anchored in Permian and Guyana volume growth plus structural cost discipline. BP's recent strength is more cyclical, tied to refining margins, trading, and deleveraging rather than production growth.
Risk factors: BP faces balance-sheet repair and recurring impairments in its low-carbon segment. XOM faces valuation risk and reliance on commodity prices to sustain elevated earnings, with analysts forecasting possible earnings normalization.
Market sentiment: XOM is viewed as a premium-quality compounder, while BP is seen as a turnaround story whose credibility depends on the upcoming strategy update. These contrasts frame a trade-off between stability and potential re-rating.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor XOM for trend consistency and structural stability, given its durable uptrend, lower beta, cost advantages, and diversified cash flows. BP's improving balance sheet and refining strength present a compelling catalyst, but its recurring impairments and still-developing strategy introduce greater variability. In probabilistic terms, XOM currently offers more consistent positioning, while BP may appeal where trend signals and turnaround catalysts align. The outcome remains dependent on evolving commodity conditions and each company's execution.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BP is a Hold and XOM is a Hold.
BP in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026
BP moved above its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 29 of 39 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BP as a result. In 75 of 101 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BP just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where BP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
Following a +4.45% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BP advanced for three days, in 213 of 357 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 175 of 279 cases where BP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 63%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
BP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 25, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 19 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.958) is normal, around the industry mean (1.887). P/E Ratio (21.224) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.521). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.058) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). Dividend Yield (0.045) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.548) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Momentum Indicator for XOM turns positive, indicating new upward trend
XOM saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 01, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 91 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 63 of the 91 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for XOM just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where XOM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Following a +2.82% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XOM advanced for three days, in 231 of 374 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XOM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 43%.
XOM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 25, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. XOM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 64 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: XOM's P/B Ratio (2.577) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.887). P/E Ratio (20.916) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.521). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.392) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.911) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
BP | XOM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 44 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 19 Undervalued | 64 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 10 | 4 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 73 | 62 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 13 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 99 | 17 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BP's Valuation (19) in the Integrated Oil industry is somewhat better than the same rating for XOM (64). This means that BP’s stock grew somewhat faster than XOM’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's Profit vs Risk Rating (4) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (10). This means that XOM’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's SMR Rating (62) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (73). This means that XOM’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's Price Growth Rating (13) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (40). This means that XOM’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's P/E Growth Rating (17) in the Integrated Oil industry is significantly better than the same rating for BP (99). This means that XOM’s stock grew significantly faster than BP’s over the last 12 months.
| BP | XOM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 59% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 60% | 4 days ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 23 days ago 52% | about 1 month ago 43% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 50% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | N/A |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BP’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while XOM’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- BP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- XOM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BP’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while XOM’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- XOM’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BP (@Integrated Oil) experienced а +8.56% price change this week, while XOM (@Integrated Oil) price change was +5.94% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was +4.38%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.68%, and the average quarterly price growth was +14.73%.
Reported Earning Dates
BP is expected to report earnings on Oct 30, 2026.
XOM is expected to report earnings on Oct 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (+4.38% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
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XOM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, XOM has been closely correlated with CVX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if XOM jumps, then CVX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To XOM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 100% | +2.46% | ||
| CVX - XOM | 83% Closely correlated | +2.59% | ||
| EQNR - XOM | 74% Closely correlated | +4.59% | ||
| BP - XOM | 71% Closely correlated | +3.65% | ||
| CRGY - XOM | 69% Closely correlated | +10.07% | ||
| SHEL - XOM | 69% Closely correlated | +3.00% | ||
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