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COF vs MA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Capital One Financial (COF) vs. Mastercard (MA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Capital One Financial (COF) has delivered stronger year-to-date performance at 20.43% compared to Mastercard's (MA) 10.79%.
- MA trades at a more attractive trailing P/E ratio of 30.73 versus COF's elevated 59.11, reflecting superior margins.
- COF reported Q1 revenue of $15.23 billion and adjusted EPS (earnings per share) of $4.42, missing estimates but showing year-over-year growth amid Discover integration.
- MA maintains global diversification and innovation in AI and crypto payments, with upcoming Q1 earnings anticipated to drive sentiment.
- Analysts rate both as buys, but COF offers higher implied upside to average targets (~33% vs. ~28% for MA).
- COF generates higher revenue ($36.31B TTM) but faces greater credit risk, while MA excels in asset-light scalability.
Introduction
Capital One Financial (COF) and Mastercard (MA) represent distinct segments of the financial services sector: COF as a diversified bank with significant lending exposure, and MA as a global payment network processor. This comparison is relevant for traders seeking short-term momentum plays and long-term investors evaluating consumer credit trends against digital payment growth. In the current market environment, marked by interest rate dynamics and technological shifts, understanding their relative performance, valuations, and catalysts aids in assessing portfolio positioning and sector rotation opportunities.
COF Overview and Recent Performance
Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) is a major U.S. bank holding company focused on credit cards, consumer banking, and commercial lending, with key operations in digital channels and branches across select states. It holds approximately $683 billion in assets, bolstered by its May 2025 acquisition of Discover Financial Services. In recent market activity, COF shares have exhibited volatility, with year-to-date gains of 20.43% but a pullback following Q1 results that missed revenue and EPS expectations at $15.23 billion and $4.42 adjusted, respectively. Sentiment has been influenced by year-over-year revenue growth, ongoing Discover integration progress, and analyst optimism despite higher net charge-offs (NCOs, losses from uncollectible loans). Trading around $192, the stock reflects resilience amid broader banking sector pressures from consumer debt levels.
MA Overview and Recent Performance
Mastercard Incorporated (MA) operates a technology-driven payment network processing transactions globally across credit, debit, and prepaid products in over 200 countries. With $32.79 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue and high-margin operations, it emphasizes security, analytics, and emerging areas like AI agents and crypto rails. Recent weeks have seen steady price action around $508, with year-to-date returns of 10.79% amid market rotations away from high-growth names. Performance drivers include anticipation for Q1 earnings on April 30, innovations in digital commerce, and resilience despite regulatory scrutiny on fees. Analyst sentiment remains positive, supported by consistent volume growth and cross-border payment expansion.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
COF and MA diverge in business models: COF as a balance-sheet intensive lender reliant on net interest income (NII, earnings from loans minus deposit costs) and credit card fees, exposing it to NCOs and economic cycles; MA as an asset-light network earning transaction-based fees with superior operating margins over 50%. Growth drivers contrast COF's domestic consumer lending expansion via Discover against MA's international volume surges. Recent momentum favors COF on YTD basis, though both show one-month gains around 3-4%. Risk factors include COF's sensitivity to interest rates and delinquency trends versus MA's regulatory and competitive pressures. Sector exposure tilts COF toward U.S. banking volatility, while MA benefits from fintech tailwinds. Market sentiment is bullish for both, with COF drawing attention for M&A (mergers and acquisitions) synergies.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models currently favor COF over MA in the near term, citing superior trend consistency with 20%+ YTD gains, catalysts from Discover integration, and greater relative upside to analyst targets amid resilient consumer lending positioning. While MA offers stability through global scale, COF's momentum edges it probabilistically higher for trend-following strategies.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is COF is a Hold and MA is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
COF’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileMA’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- COF’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MA’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
COF’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MA’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- COF’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- MA’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
COF (@Savings Banks) experienced а -0.27% price change this week, while MA (@Savings Banks) price change was +3.68% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Savings Banks industry was +0.54%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.19%, and the average quarterly price growth was -10.40%.
Reported Earning Dates
COF is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
MA is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Savings Banks (+0.54% weekly)A savings bank primary function is to take deposits and paying interest on those deposits. Originating in Europe during the 18th century, these banks were generally introduced to incentivize people of all stripes to save money and park them with banks. By the 1990s, the internet ushered in online savings banks that allowed savers to deposit/transact with banks digitally, without requiring to visit a branch office. Savings banks have potentially encouraged lower-income population to save and have access to a financial institution to earn interest on their money. New York Community Bancorp, Inc, Webster Financial Corporation, Washington Federal, Inc. are examples of savings banks.
| COF | MA | COF / MA | |
| Capitalization | 114B | 438B | 26% |
| EBITDA | N/A | 21.3B | - |
| Gain YTD | -23.733 | -12.970 | 183% |
| P/E Ratio | 56.39 | 28.66 | 197% |
| Revenue | 58.7B | 33.9B | 173% |
| Total Cash | 3.03B | 8.22B | 37% |
| Total Debt | 51.3B | 19B | 270% |
COF | MA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 66 | 21 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 91 Overvalued | 100 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 68 | 41 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 5 | 81 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
COF's Valuation (91) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as MA (100) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry. This means that COF’s stock grew similarly to MA’s over the last 12 months.
MA's Profit vs Risk Rating (41) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as COF (68) in the Major Banks industry. This means that MA’s stock grew similarly to COF’s over the last 12 months.
MA's SMR Rating (100) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as COF (100) in the Major Banks industry. This means that MA’s stock grew similarly to COF’s over the last 12 months.
MA's Price Growth Rating (60) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry is in the same range as COF (61) in the Major Banks industry. This means that MA’s stock grew similarly to COF’s over the last 12 months.
COF's P/E Growth Rating (5) in the Major Banks industry is significantly better than the same rating for MA (81) in the Finance Or Rental Or Leasing industry. This means that COF’s stock grew significantly faster than MA’s over the last 12 months.
| COF | MA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 50% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 58% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 56% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 53% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 27 days ago 65% | 6 days ago 48% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 8 days ago 57% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 45% |
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MA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MA has been closely correlated with V. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MA jumps, then V could also see price increases.