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COST vs WMT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Costco Wholesale (COST) vs. Walmart (WMT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- COST has delivered stronger recent comparable-sales momentum, while WMT offers greater scale and a more diversified revenue mix.
- Both names carry premium valuations relative to the broader retail sector, though COST trades at a notably higher forward P/E (price-to-earnings) multiple.
- WMT missed comparable-sales expectations in its latest quarter, while COST has maintained double-digit sales growth.
- Both companies benefit from recurring membership and loyalty economics, but their customer demographics differ meaningfully.
- Analysts rate both stocks a consensus Buy, with sentiment split between growth quality and valuation risk.
Introduction
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) and Walmart Inc. (WMT) are two of the most closely watched names in U.S. retail, and both are frequently used as barometers for consumer spending. This stock comparison examines their relative performance, business models, growth drivers, and market positioning in the current environment. Investors evaluating defensive retail exposure, value-versus-growth trade-offs, or the resilience of the American consumer will find this head-to-head useful. While both companies operate at massive scale, their approaches to pricing, membership, and customer mix create distinct investment profiles that may appeal to different strategies.
COST Overview and Recent Performance
Costco Wholesale Corporation operates a global chain of membership-based warehouse clubs, generating roughly three-quarters of its revenue from the United States alongside growing Canadian and international segments. The company's model centers on recurring membership fees, bulk value, and a curated assortment anchored by groceries and private-label goods.
Recent market activity has favored COST, which reported September net sales of about $30 billion, up roughly 13% year over year, with total comparable sales rising 11.4%. Its latest fiscal fourth quarter topped expectations on both EPS (earnings per share) and revenue, supported by a higher-income member base that has remained resilient even as lower-income shoppers face pressure. Membership renewal rates remain strong, and digital sales have grown more than 20% annually, reinforcing a momentum story that has kept sentiment broadly positive despite a premium valuation.
WMT Overview and Recent Performance
Walmart Inc. is the world's largest retailer, spanning supercenters, Sam's Club warehouse clubs, and a rapidly expanding e-commerce and marketplace ecosystem. Groceries anchor its traffic, while advertising, membership, and fulfillment services are becoming increasingly important profit drivers.
Recent activity for WMT has been more mixed. The company beat EPS and revenue estimates in its latest reported quarter but posted U.S. comparable-sales growth of only 2.6%, its softest in years, prompting a notable single-session share decline. Management nonetheless raised full-year sales and operating-income guidance, citing market-share gains, record membership revenue, and e-commerce growth above 20%. Rising fuel costs and tariff-related dynamics have added near-term margin pressure, even as the company's scale and defensive characteristics continue to support long-term demand.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most important contrast between these two retailers is their customer base and growth profile. COST skews toward higher-income households and leans on a pure membership-club model, which has translated into superior comparable-sales momentum in recent months. WMT, by contrast, serves a broader and more budget-conscious demographic across a wider store network, giving it greater defensive breadth but also exposing it to the pressures now weighing on lower-income consumers.
On valuation, both trade at a premium, but COST carries a materially higher forward P/E multiple, reflecting expectations for durable, higher-quality earnings growth. WMT offers greater diversification through advertising, marketplace, and international operations, though its latest comparable-sales miss highlights sensitivity to fuel costs and pricing dynamics. Risk factors differ as well: COST faces valuation and membership-growth deceleration concerns, while WMT contends with margin compression and elevated capital spending.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely express a slight preference for COST in the current environment. Its stronger and more consistent comparable-sales trend, resilient higher-income member base, and steady digital expansion suggest more stable near-term momentum relative to WMT. That said, the premium valuation on COST introduces a meaningful caveat, and WMT's scale, diversification, and defensive positioning could prove more attractive under a risk-off or lower-income-stress scenario. The verdict is best understood as probabilistic and dependent on prevailing market conditions rather than a definitive ranking.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is COST is a Buy and WMT is a Buy.
Momentum Indicator for COST turns positive, indicating new upward trend
COST saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on September 25, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 75 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 49 of the 75 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 65%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for COST just turned positive on September 25, 2026. Looking at past instances where COST's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
COST moved above its 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for COST crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Following a +1.79% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where COST advanced for three days, in 214 of 350 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 12 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
COST broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for COST entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 59, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. COST’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 100 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: COST's P/B Ratio (13.206) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (5.602). COST has a moderately high P/E Ratio (50.141) as compared to the industry average of (23.885). COST's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.478) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.171). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.353) is also within normal values, averaging (1.008).
WMT in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026
WMT moved above its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 28 of 42 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on WMT as a result. In 45 of 74 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WMT just turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where WMT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The 10-day moving average for WMT crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +2.28% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WMT advanced for three days, in 210 of 373 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 178 of 359 cases where WMT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 50%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WMT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 37%.
WMT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 59, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. WMT’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 100 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: WMT's P/B Ratio (9.514) is slightly higher than the industry average of (5.602). WMT has a moderately high P/E Ratio (42.527) as compared to the industry average of (23.885). WMT's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.175) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.171). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.169) is also within normal values, averaging (1.008).
COST | WMT | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 44 | 42 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 100 Overvalued | 100 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 13 | 16 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 34 | 42 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 44 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 33 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
COST's Valuation (100) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as WMT (100). This means that COST’s stock grew similarly to WMT’s over the last 12 months.
COST's Profit vs Risk Rating (13) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as WMT (16). This means that COST’s stock grew similarly to WMT’s over the last 12 months.
COST's SMR Rating (34) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as WMT (42). This means that COST’s stock grew similarly to WMT’s over the last 12 months.
COST's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as WMT (44). This means that COST’s stock grew similarly to WMT’s over the last 12 months.
WMT's P/E Growth Rating (33) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as COST (43). This means that WMT’s stock grew similarly to COST’s over the last 12 months.
| COST | WMT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 43% | 2 days ago 38% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 46% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 61% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 55% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 7 days ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 37% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 39% | 2 days ago 36% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 35% | 2 days ago 50% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
COST’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while WMT’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- COST’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- WMT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
COST’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WMT’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- COST’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- WMT’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
COST (@Discount Stores) experienced а +1.66% price change this week, while WMT (@Discount Stores) price change was +1.41% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +2.36%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +10.18%, and the average quarterly price growth was +15.45%.
Reported Earning Dates
COST is expected to report earnings on Dec 10, 2026.
WMT is expected to report earnings on Nov 19, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (+2.36% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
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