Advertisement
COST vs WMT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Costco Wholesale (COST) vs. Walmart (WMT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Costco (COST) and Walmart (WMT) are both defensive, large-cap retailers, but they compete with different models: membership-driven warehouse clubs versus an omnichannel, everyday-low-price superstore network.
- Costco is growing revenue faster (roughly 10% in its latest fiscal year) while commanding a richer valuation near 48 times earnings; Walmart offers larger absolute scale with a somewhat lower forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple.
- Walmart's higher-margin businesses—advertising, memberships, and e-commerce—are expanding quickly, while Costco's growth is anchored in membership fees and warehouse expansion.
- Both stocks carry "Buy" consensus ratings from analysts, but relative performance and momentum have diverged in recent weeks.
- For deeper context on each name, explore COST Major News and COST Today's Price Move, as well as WMT Major News and WMT Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated systems are currently positioning across these and other tickers, explore the Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Costco Wholesale Corporation and Walmart Inc. are two of the largest and most closely watched names in U.S. retail, and their stock comparison frequently surfaces among investors seeking resilient, consumer-facing exposure. Both businesses benefit from scale, strong cash generation, and a value-oriented proposition that tends to hold up across economic cycles. Yet their models differ meaningfully: Costco generates much of its profit from membership fees and warehouse volumes, while Walmart monetizes a sprawling store and digital ecosystem. For long-term investors, income-oriented buyers, and traders evaluating relative performance and market positioning, understanding how these two leaders diverge offers a useful framework for comparing growth, valuation, and momentum.
COST Overview and Recent Performance
Costco Wholesale operates a membership-only warehouse club model, with roughly 939 warehouses worldwide and more than 84 million paid members. Membership fee income remains a core pillar of profitability, and recent quarters have highlighted strong executive membership penetration and renewal rates, even as the pace of paid-member growth has decelerated for several consecutive periods. In its latest reported fiscal results, Costco posted double-digit net sales growth and solid comparable-sales gains, supported by traffic growth and strength in non-foods categories.
Recent market activity has been influenced by several factors. Digitally enabled sales continue to climb at a strong double-digit rate, and the company has been reinvesting tariff refunds into lower prices for members. At the same time, investors have weighed a premium valuation near 48 times earnings against questions about membership momentum and margin pressures, including higher last-in, first-out (LIFO) inventory charges. The shares have traded below their recent highs, reflecting a more measured sentiment even as the underlying business has held up.
WMT Overview and Recent Performance
Walmart is the world's largest retailer by revenue, serving roughly 280 million customers weekly through more than 10,900 stores and e-commerce sites across 19 countries. Its three operating segments—Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam's Club—span discount stores, warehouse clubs, and a growing digital marketplace. Recent results have been defined by resilient U.S. comparable sales, a roughly 26% jump in global e-commerce, and rapid expansion in higher-margin businesses such as advertising and membership income.
Sentiment around Walmart has been shaped by its ability to attract higher-income shoppers and its push into artificial intelligence (AI) shopping tools and delivery services. However, the stock has also faced scrutiny over a premium valuation and management's conservative near-term guidance, particularly amid fuel-cost pressures on consumers. In recent weeks, Walmart shares have traded within a broad range, with the company's scale and digital momentum offset by questions about how much additional upside the current multiple supports.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains a catalog of hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, each with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance history, statistics, and set of securities. Because market conditions change constantly, only a subset of these bots is well suited to the current environment at any given moment. The curated Trending AI Robots section highlights the strategies that are currently best aligned with prevailing market dynamics, allowing traders to review recent performance and positioning across a range of names, including large-cap retailers such as COST and WMT. Exploring this page offers a practical way to see how automated systems are interpreting real-time conditions.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental contrast between the two companies is their revenue model. Costco derives a substantial portion of operating income from membership fees, creating a recurring, high-margin stream that supports its aggressive price discipline. Walmart, by contrast, operates on structurally thinner retail margins but is rapidly layering on higher-margin revenue from advertising, marketplace services, and paid memberships such as Walmart+.
On growth, Costco has posted faster comparable-sales momentum and a larger warehouse-expansion runway, while Walmart's e-commerce and alternative-revenue engines are scaling at a quicker clip. Risk profiles also differ: Costco is more concentrated in membership economics and fee decisions, whereas Walmart faces broader exposure to grocery inflation, fuel costs, and international currency swings. In terms of valuation, both trade at premiums to the broader market, but Walmart's forward P/E is somewhat lower, reflecting its larger base and thinner margins.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward the name showing more durable and orderly price structure rather than raw growth alone. Costco's steadier, lower-volatility profile and resilient membership-driven earnings could support a constructive view, while Walmart's broader catalyst set and digital momentum argue for continued relevance. In the current environment, the AI would more probably favor Costco for trend consistency and earnings stability, while acknowledging that Walmart's valuation and diversified revenue growth keep the comparison close. Any such signal should be understood as probabilistic rather than as a definitive forecast.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is COST is a Buy and WMT is a Buy.
COST in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026
COST moved above its 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 31 of 50 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for COST crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 42%.
Following a +4.54% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where COST advanced for three days, in 214 of 350 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 166 of 327 cases where COST Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 51%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where COST declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 40%.
COST broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. COST’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 100 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: COST's P/B Ratio (13.937) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (5.834). COST has a moderately high P/E Ratio (52.916) as compared to the industry average of (24.535). COST's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.478) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.171). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.353) is also within normal values, averaging (1.008).
WMT's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WMT turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where WMT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on WMT as a result. In 47 of 73 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
WMT moved above its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for WMT crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Following a +5.31% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WMT advanced for three days, in 212 of 370 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 200 of 363 cases where WMT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 55%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for WMT moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 56 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 25 of the 56 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 45%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 25 of 73 cases where WMT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 34%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WMT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 36%.
WMT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. WMT’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 100 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: WMT's P/B Ratio (10.137) is slightly higher than the industry average of (5.834). WMT has a moderately high P/E Ratio (45.314) as compared to the industry average of (24.535). WMT's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.175) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.171). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.169) is also within normal values, averaging (1.008).
COST | WMT | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 40 | 90 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 100 Overvalued | 100 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 8 | 11 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 34 | 42 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 26 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 23 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
COST's Valuation (100) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as WMT (100). This means that COST’s stock grew similarly to WMT’s over the last 12 months.
COST's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as WMT (11). This means that COST’s stock grew similarly to WMT’s over the last 12 months.
COST's SMR Rating (34) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as WMT (42). This means that COST’s stock grew similarly to WMT’s over the last 12 months.
COST's Price Growth Rating (26) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as WMT (43). This means that COST’s stock grew similarly to WMT’s over the last 12 months.
WMT's P/E Growth Rating (23) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as COST (38). This means that WMT’s stock grew similarly to COST’s over the last 12 months.
| COST | WMT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 40% | 2 days ago 45% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 42% | 2 days ago 34% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 6 days ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 61% | 10 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 40% | 6 days ago 36% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 40% | 2 days ago 37% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 55% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
COST’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while WMT’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- COST’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- WMT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
COST’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WMT’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- COST’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- WMT’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
COST (@Discount Stores) experienced а +4.60% price change this week, while WMT (@Discount Stores) price change was +0.55% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +0.10%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +11.14%, and the average quarterly price growth was +28.43%.
Reported Earning Dates
COST is expected to report earnings on Dec 10, 2026.
WMT is expected to report earnings on Nov 19, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (+0.10% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
Advertisement
COST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, COST has been loosely correlated with WMT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 63% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if COST jumps, then WMT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To COST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COST | 100% | -0.00% | ||
| WMT - COST | 63% Loosely correlated | -0.09% | ||
| PSMT - COST | 27% Poorly correlated | +0.48% | ||
| DG - COST | 25% Poorly correlated | +0.46% | ||
| DLTR - COST | 20% Poorly correlated | +2.62% | ||
| OLLI - COST | 19% Poorly correlated | +0.52% | ||
More | ||||
WMT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WMT has been loosely correlated with COST. These tickers have moved in lockstep 60% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if WMT jumps, then COST could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To WMT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | 100% | -0.09% | ||
| COST - WMT | 60% Loosely correlated | -0.00% | ||
| PSMT - WMT | 36% Loosely correlated | +0.48% | ||
| DG - WMT | 34% Loosely correlated | +0.46% | ||
| TGT - WMT | 30% Poorly correlated | -1.80% | ||
| DLTR - WMT | 27% Poorly correlated | +2.62% | ||
More | ||||