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COST vs WMT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) vs. Walmart Inc. (WMT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- COST reported August net sales of $23.70 billion, up 9.9% year-over-year, with fiscal 2026 net sales reaching $297.3 billion, a 10.2% increase.
- WMT posted fiscal Q2 2027 revenue growth of 5.9%, though U.S. comparable sales slowed to 2.6%, contributing to a post-earnings share decline of approximately 9%.
- Over the past month, COST shares declined about 5%, while WMT shares fell roughly 7%, reflecting broader retail sector pressures amid mixed consumer spending signals.
- COST benefits from a membership model with high renewal rates near 90% and growing digital sales, whereas WMT leverages scale in e-commerce, advertising, and marketplace operations.
- Analyst sentiment remains constructive for both, with COST seeing recent Buy upgrades and elevated price targets, while WMT maintains a Moderate Buy consensus despite valuation considerations.
- Market capitalization stands at approximately $401 billion for COST versus about $850 billion for WMT, highlighting differences in scale and investor positioning.
Introduction
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) and Walmart Inc. (WMT) represent two leading players in the consumer staples retail sector, each with distinct business models serving value-conscious shoppers. This comparison examines their recent stock performance, operational metrics, and market positioning to assist investors and traders evaluating relative opportunities in a dynamic retail environment. The analysis draws on verifiable developments from recent weeks, including sales reports and earnings outcomes, to highlight contrasts in growth trajectories, margin profiles, and external influences. Both stocks appeal to those seeking defensive exposure within consumer discretionary and staples, particularly amid evolving spending patterns and competitive pressures.
COST Overview and Recent Performance
Costco Wholesale Corporation operates a membership warehouse club model emphasizing bulk purchases and private-label products. In recent market activity, the stock has traded near $905, reflecting a monthly decline of approximately 5% amid broader sector rotation. August net sales reached $23.70 billion, marking a 9.9% year-over-year rise, while full fiscal 2026 net sales totaled $297.3 billion, up 10.2%. Comparable sales growth and expanding membership fee revenue have supported sentiment, with digital channels contributing notably. Analyst upgrades, including to Buy ratings with targets above $1,000, underscore confidence in the company's operational resilience and customer loyalty metrics during recent weeks.
WMT Overview and Recent Performance
Walmart Inc. maintains a vast global retail footprint with emphasis on everyday low prices, supplemented by e-commerce, advertising, and marketplace initiatives. Shares have recently hovered near $107, posting a monthly decline of about 7% following mixed quarterly results. Fiscal second-quarter 2027 revenue rose 5.9% to $187.9 billion, yet U.S. comparable sales growth decelerated to 2.6%, prompting a post-earnings share reaction of roughly 9% lower. International operations and advertising revenue provided offsets, while ongoing investments in omnichannel capabilities and price rollbacks aim to sustain traffic. The larger scale offers diversification advantages amid shifting consumer dynamics observed in recent market activity.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Costco Wholesale Corporation and Walmart Inc. differ fundamentally in scale and approach: COST relies on a high-renewal membership base and warehouse format for recurring revenue stability, while WMT emphasizes broad accessibility, supply-chain efficiency, and ancillary revenue from advertising and marketplace services. Recent momentum favors COST on sales growth metrics, though WMT offers greater absolute size and dividend yield proximity to 0.9%. Risk factors include membership sensitivity to economic shifts for COST versus competitive pricing pressures and comparable-sales variability for WMT. Sector exposure overlaps in consumer staples, yet COST exhibits tighter focus on premium bulk goods and WMT broader everyday essentials. Market sentiment reflects analyst optimism for both, tempered by valuation multiples near 45 times earnings for COST and 39 times for WMT.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models may currently assign a modest edge to COST based on more consistent recent sales expansion, elevated membership renewal rates, and steadier trend alignment relative to peers. WMT demonstrates resilience through scale and diversified revenue streams but faces nearer-term headwinds from decelerating comparable sales. Probabilistic assessments incorporate factors such as momentum persistence and catalyst visibility, suggesting COST could exhibit comparatively favorable positioning in modeled scenarios over the near term. These outputs remain subject to evolving market data and should inform research rather than dictate decisions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Disclaimers and LimitationsTo compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is COST is a StrongBuy and WMT is a StrongBuy.
COST | WMT | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 24 | 19 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 99 Overvalued | 96 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 18 | 23 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 35 | 42 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 53 | 36 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 13 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
WMT's Valuation (96) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as COST (99). This means that WMT’s stock grew similarly to COST’s over the last 12 months.
COST's Profit vs Risk Rating (18) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as WMT (23). This means that COST’s stock grew similarly to WMT’s over the last 12 months.
COST's SMR Rating (35) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as WMT (42). This means that COST’s stock grew similarly to WMT’s over the last 12 months.
COST's Price Growth Rating (57) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as WMT (58). This means that COST’s stock grew similarly to WMT’s over the last 12 months.
WMT's P/E Growth Rating (36) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as COST (53). This means that WMT’s stock grew similarly to COST’s over the last 12 months.
| COST | WMT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 80% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 37% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 31% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 38% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 37% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 43% | 2 days ago 38% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 5 days ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 38% | 3 days ago 37% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 40% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 33% | 2 days ago 53% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
COST’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while WMT’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- COST’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- WMT’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
COST’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WMT’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- COST’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- WMT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
COST (@Discount Stores) experienced а +2.06% price change this week, while WMT (@Discount Stores) price change was -3.10% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was -1.60%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.99%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.65%.
Reported Earning Dates
COST is expected to report earnings on Dec 10, 2026.
WMT is expected to report earnings on Nov 19, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (-1.60% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
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COST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, COST has been loosely correlated with WMT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 59% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if COST jumps, then WMT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To COST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COST | 100% | +0.51% | ||
| WMT - COST | 59% Loosely correlated | +0.33% | ||
| TGT - COST | 31% Poorly correlated | +0.01% | ||
| PSMT - COST | 25% Poorly correlated | -0.87% | ||
| DG - COST | 22% Poorly correlated | -0.54% | ||
| OLLI - COST | 16% Poorly correlated | +2.64% | ||
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WMT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WMT has been loosely correlated with COST. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if WMT jumps, then COST could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To WMT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | 100% | +0.33% | ||
| COST - WMT | 61% Loosely correlated | +0.51% | ||
| PSMT - WMT | 35% Loosely correlated | -0.87% | ||
| DG - WMT | 31% Poorly correlated | -0.54% | ||
| TGT - WMT | 27% Poorly correlated | +0.01% | ||
| DLTR - WMT | 18% Poorly correlated | +0.36% | ||
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