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DOW vs LYB
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Dow Inc. (DOW) vs. LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both DOW and LYB have benefited from higher petrochemical prices following Middle East supply disruptions, but they are executing very different strategies.
- DOW delivered a strong third quarter, beating earnings estimates on higher polyethylene prices and aggressive cost-cutting, and guided above expectations for the fourth quarter.
- LYB posted a large second-quarter earnings beat and continues reshaping its portfolio, though near-term pricing pressure has led analysts to trim expectations.
- DOW is leaning into self-help initiatives and workforce reductions, while LYB is divesting assets and streamlining its cost base through a cash improvement program.
- Both stocks have outperformed the broader market over the past year, making relative performance and market positioning the key differentiators.
Introduction
Dow Inc. and LyondellBasell Industries are two of the largest chemical and materials companies in the world, and their shares often move in tandem with the same forces: petrochemical pricing, energy costs, and global demand for plastics. A stock comparison between DOW and LYB is especially relevant now, because both have been navigating a disrupted global supply environment while pursuing separate restructuring paths. Investors focused on cyclicals, dividends, and materials-sector rotation may find this comparison useful for understanding how these peers differ in growth drivers, balance-sheet positioning, and market sentiment despite operating in closely related businesses.
DOW Overview and Recent Performance
DOW is a Midland, Michigan–based materials science company that produces packaging and specialty plastics, industrial intermediates, and performance materials and coatings. In its most recent quarter, the company reported net sales of roughly $11.3 billion, up 13% year over year, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS, the portion of profit allocated to each share) of $0.71, ahead of consensus estimates. Operating EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) rose to about $1.55 billion from $868 million a year earlier.
Recent performance has been driven by higher polyethylene prices across all regions, which management attributed in part to tighter global supply following Middle East disruptions. The company has also accelerated self-help measures, including a plan to cut roughly 13% of its workforce and the closure of higher-cost European upstream assets. DOW guided fourth-quarter adjusted core earnings above Wall Street estimates, supported by continued pricing strength and cost savings, and its shares have risen sharply on a year-to-date basis, outpacing the S&P 500.
LYB Overview and Recent Performance
LYB, LyondellBasell Industries N.V., is a global chemical company headquartered in Houston, Texas, with roots in the Netherlands. It manufactures plastics, chemicals, and advanced polymers, and has been exiting lower-margin businesses to sharpen its focus. In its most recent reported quarter, the company posted EPS of $4.30, well above the consensus estimate of about $3.44, with revenue of roughly $9.18 billion, up nearly 20% year over year. That strength reflected higher polyethylene margins and favorable cost positioning for its U.S. Gulf Coast assets.
LYB has completed the sale of four European assets and continues to execute a cash improvement plan targeting $500 million of incremental cash flow. However, analysts have flagged softer third-quarter pricing as increased exports from China pressured polyethylene markets, prompting some firms to trim price targets even while maintaining constructive longer-term views. LYB shares have also delivered strong relative performance over the past year, though near-term sentiment has been more mixed ahead of its next earnings release.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Although DOW and LYB share exposure to petrochemical pricing, their business models differ meaningfully. DOW operates a more integrated, downstream-oriented portfolio spanning packaging, infrastructure, and consumer-facing materials, while LYB is anchored in olefins and polyolefins with a cost-advantaged U.S. Gulf Coast position. Growth drivers also diverge: DOW is emphasizing self-help cost programs and productivity gains, whereas LYB is reshaping its portfolio through divestitures and disciplined capital spending.
On momentum, both stocks have outperformed the broader market over the past year, but the pattern differs. DOW's recent quarter showed broad-based improvement with an upbeat forward guide, while LYB faces near-term pricing headwinds even as its asset base remains structurally advantaged. Risk factors include commodity-price cyclicality, energy costs, and geopolitical supply disruptions for both. Market sentiment appears comparatively firmer around DOW's execution narrative, while analyst views on LYB are split between bullish cost-positioning arguments and concerns about softening pricing.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward DOW in the current environment. The combination of a broad-based earnings beat, an above-consensus forward outlook, and consistent self-help execution suggests steadier trend consistency and more visible near-term catalysts. LYB's cost-advantaged asset base and portfolio transformation remain credible long-term strengths, but softer third-quarter pricing and mixed analyst revisions introduce more uncertainty into its short-term trajectory. This is a probabilistic assessment grounded in momentum, stability, and relative positioning rather than a definitive forecast, and the balance could shift quickly if petrochemical pricing dynamics change.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DOW is a Buy and LYB is a StrongBuy.
DOW in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026
The 10-day moving average for DOW crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
DOW moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +6.85% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DOW advanced for three days, in 174 of 292 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 125 of 202 cases where DOW Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for DOW moved out of overbought territory on November 03, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 33 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 33 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 61%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 06, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on DOW as a result. In 57 of 89 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for DOW turned negative on November 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 64%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DOW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
DOW broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DOW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.430) is normal, around the industry mean (1.147). P/E Ratio (-17.158) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.243). DOW's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (38.891) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.769). Dividend Yield (0.045) settles around the average of (0.195) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.524) is also within normal values, averaging (0.578).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. DOW’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
LYB's Stochastic Oscillator remains in oversold zone for 1 day
Be on the lookout for a price bounce soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for LYB crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +1.47% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LYB advanced for three days, in 184 of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 139 of 203 cases where LYB Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 68%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for LYB moved out of overbought territory on November 02, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 29 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 69%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 04, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on LYB as a result. In 58 of 102 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for LYB turned negative on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 24 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 48%.
LYB moved below its 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 50-day moving average for LYB moved below the 200-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LYB declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
LYB broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 30 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.838) is normal, around the industry mean (2.284). P/E Ratio (-54.214) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-17.137). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.526) is also within normal values, averaging (1.548). Dividend Yield (0.045) settles around the average of (0.039) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.670) is also within normal values, averaging (48.960).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LYB’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. LYB’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock worse than average.
DOW | LYB | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 30 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 93 | 92 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 44 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 51 | 46 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
LYB's Valuation (30) in the Chemicals Specialty industry is somewhat better than the same rating for DOW (94). This means that LYB’s stock grew somewhat faster than DOW’s over the last 12 months.
LYB's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Chemicals Specialty industry is in the same range as DOW (100). This means that LYB’s stock grew similarly to DOW’s over the last 12 months.
LYB's SMR Rating (92) in the Chemicals Specialty industry is in the same range as DOW (93). This means that LYB’s stock grew similarly to DOW’s over the last 12 months.
DOW's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Chemicals Specialty industry is in the same range as LYB (44). This means that DOW’s stock grew similarly to LYB’s over the last 12 months.
LYB's P/E Growth Rating (46) in the Chemicals Specialty industry is in the same range as DOW (51). This means that LYB’s stock grew similarly to DOW’s over the last 12 months.
| DOW | LYB | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 69% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 72% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 48% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 55% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 60% | 14 days ago 61% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 57% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 68% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DOW’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while LYB’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- DOW’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- LYB’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DOW’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LYB’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DOW’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- LYB’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 7 bearish.
Price Growth
DOW (@Chemicals: Major Diversified) experienced а -9.51% price change this week, while LYB (@Chemicals: Specialty) price change was -11.54% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Chemicals: Major Diversified industry was -2.87%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.02%, and the average quarterly price growth was -25.80%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Chemicals: Specialty industry was +0.43%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.87%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.55%.
Reported Earning Dates
DOW is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
LYB is expected to report earnings on Jan 29, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Chemicals: Major Diversified (-2.87% weekly)The major diversified chemicals industry includes companies that produce a wide range of chemicals and industrial gases. The products are often used as raw materials in the manufacturing of various types of goods, including plastics, paints, carpets, and fixtures to name a few. Major companies making diversified chemicals include DuPont de Nemours Inc., Celanese Corporation, Celanese Corporation and Westlake Chemical Corporation.
@Chemicals: Specialty (+0.43% weekly)The specialty chemicals sector includes companies that produce chemicals and industrial gases, which are of relatively high-value, often made to customer specifications. Examples of specialty chemicals are electronic chemicals, industrial gases, coatings, adhesives and sealants, industrial and institutional cleaning chemicals. The products are often valued on the basis of their purposes/performances rather than for their composition. Linde Plc, Ecolab Inc., Air Products and Chemicals, Inc., and Dow, Inc. are some of the largest companies making specialty chemicals.
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DOW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DOW has been closely correlated with LYB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DOW jumps, then LYB could also see price increases.
LYB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LYB has been closely correlated with DOW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LYB jumps, then DOW could also see price increases.