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DOW vs LYB
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Dow Inc. (DOW) vs. LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- DOW is navigating a cyclical downturn with full-year 2025 losses and a dividend reduction, while LYB has swung back to profitability amid recovering petrochemical demand.
- LYB has sharply outperformed DOW in recent market activity, posting a materially stronger year-to-date and one-year return.
- DOW is pursuing a large-scale cost and restructuring program, including workforce reductions, while LYB has completed a multi-year portfolio transformation and asset divestitures.
- LYB has benefited from supply disruptions and higher petrochemical prices, whereas DOW has faced weaker pricing and volumes across most segments.
- Both companies carry elevated leverage and cyclical exposure, making their relative performance highly sensitive to the broader chemicals cycle.
Introduction
Dow Inc. (DOW) and LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) are two of the largest names in the global chemicals and materials sector, yet they have charted notably different paths over the past year. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing two distinct ways to gain exposure to the same cyclical industry: one company focused on cost discipline and restructuring through a downturn, and another capitalizing on a sharp earnings recovery. By examining relative performance, business models, and market positioning, traders and long-term investors can better assess which profile aligns with their objectives in the current market environment.
DOW Overview and Recent Performance
Dow Inc. is a diversified materials science company serving packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer applications. Recent financial results have reflected a challenging environment: for full-year 2025, DOW reported net sales of roughly $40 billion, down about 7% year over year, and a net loss as weaker pricing and lower volumes weighed across its Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, and Performance Materials & Coatings segments.
In response, management launched a "Transform to Outperform" initiative targeting cost savings and productivity gains, alongside a reduction in the annual dividend to $2.10 per share. The program includes workforce reductions and a greater use of automation and artificial intelligence, with management citing a goal of improving operating EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) by at least $2 billion over the near term. These moves have shaped sentiment, positioning DOW as a restructuring story while its share price has lagged the broader sector over the trailing year.
LYB Overview and Recent Performance
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. is a global producer of plastics, chemicals, and related products, with a significant footprint in olefins and polyolefins. Over the past year, LYB has executed a sweeping portfolio transformation, including the sale of select European assets, the permanent closure of its Houston refinery, and a broader "Cash Improvement Plan" aimed at strengthening financial performance.
These structural changes have coincided with a marked earnings recovery. After posting a loss in 2025, LYB returned to profitability in the first half of 2026, supported by higher petrochemical prices and favorable North American feedstock economics linked to supply disruptions in global energy markets. This rebound has translated into strong relative performance: LYB's shares have gained substantially on a year-to-date and one-year basis, comfortably outpacing the broader market. The recovery has refocused investor attention on LYB's cost-advantaged Gulf Coast assets and its improved balance sheet positioning.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between the two companies is momentum. LYB has been a relative strength leader, benefiting from a recovery in petrochemical prices and supply-driven tailwinds, while DOW has faced persistent pricing and volume pressure and is now focused on restructuring rather than growth. In business-model terms, DOW's diversified, downstream-heavy mix offers breadth, whereas LYB's large olefins and polyolefins exposure gives it greater operating leverage to swings in feedstock and product prices.
On risk factors, DOW's reduced dividend and workforce reductions highlight execution and cash-flow pressures during the downturn. LYB, by contrast, has reduced its own financial risk through divestitures and cost cuts, though its earnings remain tied to cyclical commodity prices that could normalize once supply disruptions ease. Sector exposure is similar, but market positioning differs: LYB currently carries stronger near-term earnings momentum, while DOW presents a lower-valuation, turnaround-oriented profile that depends on the success of its cost program.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor LYB over DOW in the current environment. LYB's combination of a return to profitability, a completed portfolio transformation, and materially stronger relative performance gives it more positive and stable trend characteristics. DOW's restructuring efforts could support a recovery over a longer horizon, but its still-negative earnings trajectory and dividend reduction suggest a less consistent trend profile at present. As with any signal-driven assessment, this view is probabilistic and reflects prevailing market conditions rather than a definitive forecast.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DOW is a StrongBuy and LYB is a StrongBuy.
DOW's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for DOW turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where DOW's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on DOW as a result. In 60 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
DOW moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.42% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DOW advanced for three days, in 174 of 292 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for DOW crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DOW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
DOW broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for DOW entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DOW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.370) is normal, around the industry mean (1.168). P/E Ratio (-16.437) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.375). DOW's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (38.891) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.769). Dividend Yield (0.047) settles around the average of (0.137) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.524) is also within normal values, averaging (0.578).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. DOW’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock worse than average.
LYB's RSI Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for LYB moved out of oversold territory on October 01, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 25 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 19 of the 25 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on LYB as a result. In 71 of 102 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LYB just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where LYB's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
LYB moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +4.64% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LYB advanced for three days, in 183 of 306 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for LYB crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 24, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LYB declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
LYB broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for LYB entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 26 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.929) is normal, around the industry mean (2.342). P/E Ratio (-56.884) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-17.016). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.526) is also within normal values, averaging (1.548). Dividend Yield (0.043) settles around the average of (0.039) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.670) is also within normal values, averaging (48.960).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LYB’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. LYB’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
DOW | LYB | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 10 | 19 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 26 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 93 | 92 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 98 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 17 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
LYB's Valuation (26) in the Chemicals Specialty industry is significantly better than the same rating for DOW (94). This means that LYB’s stock grew significantly faster than DOW’s over the last 12 months.
LYB's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Chemicals Specialty industry is in the same range as DOW (100). This means that LYB’s stock grew similarly to DOW’s over the last 12 months.
LYB's SMR Rating (92) in the Chemicals Specialty industry is in the same range as DOW (93). This means that LYB’s stock grew similarly to DOW’s over the last 12 months.
LYB's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Chemicals Specialty industry is in the same range as DOW (48). This means that LYB’s stock grew similarly to DOW’s over the last 12 months.
DOW's P/E Growth Rating (38) in the Chemicals Specialty industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LYB (98). This means that DOW’s stock grew somewhat faster than LYB’s over the last 12 months.
| DOW | LYB | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 76% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 62% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 5 days ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 66% | 9 days ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 57% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DOW’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while LYB’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- DOW’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- LYB’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DOW’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LYB’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DOW’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- LYB’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
DOW (@Chemicals: Major Diversified) experienced а +6.97% price change this week, while LYB (@Chemicals: Specialty) price change was +7.24% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Chemicals: Major Diversified industry was +0.14%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.61%, and the average quarterly price growth was -25.42%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Chemicals: Specialty industry was -1.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.92%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.40%.
Reported Earning Dates
DOW is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
LYB is expected to report earnings on Oct 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Chemicals: Major Diversified (+0.14% weekly)The major diversified chemicals industry includes companies that produce a wide range of chemicals and industrial gases. The products are often used as raw materials in the manufacturing of various types of goods, including plastics, paints, carpets, and fixtures to name a few. Major companies making diversified chemicals include DuPont de Nemours Inc., Celanese Corporation, Celanese Corporation and Westlake Chemical Corporation.
@Chemicals: Specialty (-1.71% weekly)The specialty chemicals sector includes companies that produce chemicals and industrial gases, which are of relatively high-value, often made to customer specifications. Examples of specialty chemicals are electronic chemicals, industrial gases, coatings, adhesives and sealants, industrial and institutional cleaning chemicals. The products are often valued on the basis of their purposes/performances rather than for their composition. Linde Plc, Ecolab Inc., Air Products and Chemicals, Inc., and Dow, Inc. are some of the largest companies making specialty chemicals.
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LYB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LYB has been closely correlated with DOW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LYB jumps, then DOW could also see price increases.