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DOW vs LYB
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Dow Inc. (DOW) vs. LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both DOW and LYB have posted year-to-date (YTD) gains exceeding 60%, propelled by petrochemical supply disruptions from geopolitical events.
- Recent market activity shows pullbacks for both stocks, with monthly declines around 4-8%, following the reopening of key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz.
- LYB boasts a higher dividend yield near 6.8% compared to DOW's 3.7%, though LYB recently adjusted its payout.
- DOW reported Q1 2026 net sales of $9.8 billion, down 6% year-over-year, with a net loss but earnings per share (EPS) beating estimates.
- Analyst upgrades highlight upside potential, with average price targets implying 10-30% gains from current levels for both.
- Both firms face similar sector risks from commodity cycles and Chinese overcapacity but benefit from tight supply conditions.
Introduction
Dow Inc. (DOW) and LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) are prominent players in the chemicals and materials sector, producing essential products like plastics and petrochemicals for industrial and consumer applications. This stock comparison is particularly relevant for investors tracking commodity cycles, dividend yields, and supply chain dynamics amid recent geopolitical influences. Traders seeking relative performance insights in a volatile energy-linked sector will find value in evaluating their business models, recent momentum, and market positioning.
DOW Overview and Recent Performance
Dow Inc. is a leading materials science company focused on packaging, infrastructure, and consumer applications through commodity chemicals, plastics, and specialty products. In recent weeks, DOW shares have pulled back after a strong YTD surge of over 60%, influenced by easing supply constraints following geopolitical developments such as the Strait of Hormuz reopening. Q1 2026 results showed net sales of $9.8 billion, reflecting flat volumes but pricing pressures, alongside a net loss that raised questions on cash flow coverage—though EPS beat consensus. The appointment of a new CEO signals a push for operational improvements. Sentiment remains cautiously optimistic with analyst price target increases, supported by low beta (around 0.5) indicating relative stability.
LYB Overview and Recent Performance
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. is a global leader in olefins, polyolefins, and refining, serving packaging, automotive, and construction markets. Like its peer, LYB has experienced a monthly dip amid recent market activity, despite robust YTD gains near 69%, driven by earlier petrochemical supply tightness. A recent dividend adjustment has tempered sentiment, but positive free cash flow and an upcoming earnings report fuel expectations for a potential beat. Analyst upgrades reflect confidence in supply dynamics and cost efficiencies, with the stock's low beta (0.44) underscoring defensive traits in the sector. Broader influences include commodity price swings tied to energy markets.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both DOW and LYB operate in petrochemicals but differ in focus: DOW offers broader diversification across specialties, while LYB emphasizes high-volume olefins and polyolefins. Growth drivers include ongoing supply tightness versus risks from Chinese overcapacity and energy price volatility. Recent momentum is comparable, with similar YTD surges and pullbacks, though LYB edges in dividend appeal despite the reset. Risk factors weigh heavier for leveraged balance sheets (debt-to-equity over 100% for both), but LYB's positive levered free cash flow contrasts DOW's negative. Market sentiment favors both amid analyst upgrades, positioning them as cyclical plays with trade-offs in yield versus diversification.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI models currently lean toward LYB with moderate confidence, citing its higher dividend yield, positive free cash flow generation, and favorable setup ahead of earnings amid sustained supply constraints. While DOW shows trend resilience post-earnings beat and leadership refresh, LYB's relative stability and analyst momentum provide a probabilistic edge in the near term for materials sector exposure.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DOW is a Hold and LYB is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DOW’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileLYB’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- DOW’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- LYB’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DOW’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LYB’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DOW’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- LYB’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
DOW (@Chemicals: Major Diversified) experienced а -0.35% price change this week, while LYB (@Chemicals: Specialty) price change was +0.12% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Chemicals: Major Diversified industry was +1.69%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.55%, and the average quarterly price growth was +24.30%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Chemicals: Specialty industry was +3.29%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.49%, and the average quarterly price growth was +20.85%.
Reported Earning Dates
DOW is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
LYB is expected to report earnings on Jul 31, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Chemicals: Major Diversified (+1.69% weekly)The major diversified chemicals industry includes companies that produce a wide range of chemicals and industrial gases. The products are often used as raw materials in the manufacturing of various types of goods, including plastics, paints, carpets, and fixtures to name a few. Major companies making diversified chemicals include DuPont de Nemours Inc., Celanese Corporation, Celanese Corporation and Westlake Chemical Corporation.
@Chemicals: Specialty (+3.29% weekly)The specialty chemicals sector includes companies that produce chemicals and industrial gases, which are of relatively high-value, often made to customer specifications. Examples of specialty chemicals are electronic chemicals, industrial gases, coatings, adhesives and sealants, industrial and institutional cleaning chemicals. The products are often valued on the basis of their purposes/performances rather than for their composition. Linde Plc, Ecolab Inc., Air Products and Chemicals, Inc., and Dow, Inc. are some of the largest companies making specialty chemicals.
| DOW | LYB | DOW / LYB | |
| Capitalization | 24.4B | 20.8B | 117% |
| EBITDA | 1.18B | 1.29B | 91% |
| Gain YTD | 47.986 | 52.536 | 91% |
| P/E Ratio | 75.92 | 98.77 | 77% |
| Revenue | 39.3B | 29.7B | 132% |
| Total Cash | 3.85B | 2.64B | 146% |
| Total Debt | 19.6B | 14.3B | 137% |
DOW | LYB | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 4 | 52 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 24 Undervalued | 8 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 96 | 95 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 51 | 51 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 8 | 2 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
LYB's Valuation (8) in the Chemicals Specialty industry is in the same range as DOW (24). This means that LYB’s stock grew similarly to DOW’s over the last 12 months.
LYB's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Chemicals Specialty industry is in the same range as DOW (100). This means that LYB’s stock grew similarly to DOW’s over the last 12 months.
LYB's SMR Rating (95) in the Chemicals Specialty industry is in the same range as DOW (96). This means that LYB’s stock grew similarly to DOW’s over the last 12 months.
LYB's Price Growth Rating (51) in the Chemicals Specialty industry is in the same range as DOW (51). This means that LYB’s stock grew similarly to DOW’s over the last 12 months.
LYB's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the Chemicals Specialty industry is in the same range as DOW (8). This means that LYB’s stock grew similarly to DOW’s over the last 12 months.
| DOW | LYB | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 58% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 60% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 61% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 56% | 3 days ago 56% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 59% | 13 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 65% | 7 days ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 67% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 58% |
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DOW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DOW has been closely correlated with LYB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DOW jumps, then LYB could also see price increases.