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F vs TM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Ford Motor Company (F) vs. Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Contrasting momentum: F rallied sharply on its new battery-storage business before giving back much of those gains, while TM has drifted lower on tariff-driven profit pressure.
- Profitability profile: Ford is narrowing losses in its electric-vehicle unit while raising full-year operating guidance; Toyota is forecasting a third consecutive year of declining operating income.
- Valuation and income: Ford offers a materially higher dividend yield, while Toyota trades at a premium multiple with a larger market capitalization and global scale.
- Risk factors differ: Ford faces recall and EV-loss execution risks, whereas Toyota is contending with U.S. tariffs and a softer North American operating result.
- Sentiment split: Analyst coverage of both stocks remains broadly constructive, but recent price action suggests the market is still weighing catalysts against cyclical headwinds.
Introduction
Ford Motor Company and Toyota Motor Corporation are two of the world's most recognizable automakers, yet they present investors with very different profiles. Ford is a U.S.-centric manufacturer with a strong truck and commercial-vehicle franchise and a newly launched energy-storage initiative, while Toyota is the world's largest automaker by volume, anchored by its dominant hybrid lineup and global scale. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing relative performance, market positioning, and risk tolerance across two legacy automakers navigating the transition to electrification and shifting trade policy. Understanding how each company's recent momentum, profitability, and catalysts compare can help traders and long-term investors frame the trade-offs between these two names.
F Overview and Recent Performance
Ford Motor Company (F) designs, manufactures, and sells trucks, SUVs, commercial vehicles, and Lincoln luxury vehicles, with the United States accounting for the majority of revenue. The stock experienced a notable shift in recent market activity after management launched Ford Energy, a subsidiary building battery energy storage systems for data centers, utilities, and industrial customers. That announcement drove a sharp rally that carried shares to a 52-week high before momentum faded, and the stock has since retraced a substantial portion of those gains.
Ford's core segments remain a source of strength: Ford Blue (gas and hybrid vehicles) and Ford Pro (commercial business) are profitable, and management has raised its full-year adjusted EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) guidance to a range of roughly $10 billion to $11 billion. However, the Model e electric-vehicle unit continues to post sizable losses, and a heavy pace of recalls has drawn attention. These factors have kept sentiment mixed, even as several analysts have raised price targets in recent weeks.
TM Overview and Recent Performance
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) is the world's largest automaker by sales volume, operating across Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, and other regions. Its recent financial results have been pressured by U.S. tariffs, which contributed to a decline in operating income even as vehicle sales and electrified-vehicle volumes grew. Electrified vehicles, led by hybrids, surpassed five million units in the latest fiscal year and represented nearly half of total retail sales.
Despite resilient demand, particularly for hybrids, Toyota's North American operations swung to an operating loss, and management has guided toward a further decline in operating income for the current fiscal year. The company has continued to raise its dividend and maintain a strong balance sheet, but near-term profit compression and tariff exposure have weighed on sentiment. Shares have declined year-to-date, and the stock trades with a higher valuation multiple than Ford, reflecting its larger scale and diversified global footprint.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between F and TM lies in scale and geographic exposure. Toyota's global manufacturing footprint and hybrid leadership give it breadth that Ford's U.S.-centric business does not match, but that breadth also exposes Toyota more directly to U.S. tariff costs and currency swings. Ford, by comparison, is more levered to the North American truck and commercial-vehicle cycle and to the emerging payoff from its energy-storage venture.
Growth drivers also diverge. Ford's narrative increasingly hinges on Ford Pro's recurring services revenue and the long-term potential of Ford Energy, while Toyota's is built on hybrid dominance and a gradual expansion of battery-electric and plug-in offerings. On risk, Ford carries EV-loss and recall headwinds, whereas Toyota faces margin compression from tariffs and a forecast of declining operating income. From a valuation standpoint, Ford trades at a lower earnings multiple with a higher dividend yield, while Toyota commands a premium that reflects its global scale, brand strength, and balance-sheet resilience. Recent momentum has favored neither decisively, as both stocks have lagged broader equity indexes in recent months.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely show a modest preference for F over TM in the current environment. Ford's raised operating guidance, narrowing Model e losses, and a defined catalyst in Ford Energy offer a clearer near-term trend signal, even amid elevated volatility. Toyota's diversified scale and hybrid strength are stabilizing attributes, but its forecast for a third consecutive year of declining operating income and persistent tariff pressure create a less favorable short-to-intermediate momentum profile. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, and relative positioning could shift quickly as tariff policy, EV execution, and consumer demand evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is F is a Hold and TM is a StrongBuy.
F's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for F turned positive on October 13, 2026. Looking at past instances where F's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where F's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 20 of 27 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a +3.15% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where F advanced for three days, in 227 of 327 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on F as a result. In 57 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
The 50-day moving average for F moved below the 200-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where F declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
F broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for F entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 17 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. F’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. F’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.328) is normal, around the industry mean (1.914). P/E Ratio (-6.398) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.021). F's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (8.543) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.450). Dividend Yield (0.050) settles around the average of (0.150) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.284) is also within normal values, averaging (2.648).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Momentum Indicator for TM turns positive, indicating new upward trend
TM saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 89 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 53 of the 89 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 60%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TM just turned positive on October 13, 2026. Looking at past instances where TM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
TM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.19% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TM advanced for three days, in 168 of 312 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for TM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
TM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for TM entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 26 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.006) is normal, around the industry mean (1.914). P/E Ratio (0.055) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.021). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.556) is also within normal values, averaging (2.450). Dividend Yield (0.041) settles around the average of (0.150) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.733) is also within normal values, averaging (2.648).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
F | TM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 75 | 14 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 78 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 87 | 82 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 95 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 98 | 97 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 17 | 26 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TM's Valuation (78) in the Motor Vehicles industry is in the same range as F (94). This means that TM’s stock grew similarly to F’s over the last 12 months.
TM's Profit vs Risk Rating (82) in the Motor Vehicles industry is in the same range as F (87). This means that TM’s stock grew similarly to F’s over the last 12 months.
TM's SMR Rating (58) in the Motor Vehicles industry is somewhat better than the same rating for F (95). This means that TM’s stock grew somewhat faster than F’s over the last 12 months.
TM's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Motor Vehicles industry is in the same range as F (60). This means that TM’s stock grew similarly to F’s over the last 12 months.
TM's P/E Growth Rating (97) in the Motor Vehicles industry is in the same range as F (98). This means that TM’s stock grew similarly to F’s over the last 12 months.
| F | TM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 53% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 69% | 7 days ago 54% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 11 days ago 51% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 55% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
F’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while TM’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- F’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- TM’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
F’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- F’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
F (@Motor Vehicles) experienced а -1.24% price change this week, while TM (@Motor Vehicles) price change was +3.32% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Motor Vehicles industry was -8.84%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -18.38%, and the average quarterly price growth was -33.21%.
Reported Earning Dates
F is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
TM is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Motor Vehicles (-8.84% weekly)Automobiles continue to be arguably the most popular form of passenger travel in the U.S., and major automobile makers have revenues and market capitalizations running into multi-billions. In recent years, the industry has been experiencing some path-breaking innovations like electric vehicles and self-driving technology. While there are long-standing companies like General Motors, Ford, and Toyota Motors operating in this space, there are also emerging/rapidly growing players like Tesla – which has had a major role in the growing popularity of the electric vehicle market. With technological advancements taking steam in the auto space, we’ve also witnessed collaborations (or talks of potential partnerships) of carmakers with tech behemoths like Google’s subsidiary, Waymo.
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TM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TM has been closely correlated with HMC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TM jumps, then HMC could also see price increases.