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FMBH vs TSBK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? First Mid Bancshares (FMBH) vs. Timberland Bancorp (TSBK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FMBH (First Mid Bancshares) is a roughly $9.3 billion community-focused financial services company scaling through acquisitions, most recently the Two Rivers Financial Group deal.
- TSBK (Timberland Bancorp) is a smaller, Washington State–concentrated community bank with total assets above $2 billion and a rising dividend.
- Both names delivered year-over-year earnings growth in recent quarters, but their scale, geography, and growth drivers differ materially.
- FMBH's momentum is tied to deal integration, net interest margin expansion, and analyst price-target increases; TSBK's is tied to disciplined lending, strong capital, and a cheaper valuation.
- On a relative performance basis, TSBK has outperformed over the trailing year, while FMBH has gained roughly 12% year to date.
Introduction
Investors weighing community and regional banks often face a choice between acquirer-driven growth and organic, balance-sheet-first execution. FMBH and TSBK illustrate both paths. First Mid Bancshares is an expanding Midwestern and Western financial services firm using mergers and acquisitions (M&A) to broaden its footprint, while Timberland Bancorp is a Pacific Northwest community bank emphasizing conservative underwriting and capital discipline. This stock comparison examines their business models, recent momentum, risk factors, and market positioning to help traders and investors understand where each name stands in the current environment.
FMBH Overview and Recent Performance
First Mid Bancshares, Inc. (FMBH) is the parent of First Mid Bank & Trust and related insurance, wealth management, brokerage, and agricultural services businesses. With roughly $9.3 billion in assets and a presence across Illinois, Missouri, Texas, Wisconsin, and Iowa, the company serves commercial, retail, and agricultural customers.
In recent weeks, sentiment has been shaped by the closing of its acquisition of Two Rivers Financial Group, which added about $871 million in loans and $1.04 billion in deposits and extended the franchise into Iowa. First Mid also reported record quarterly results, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.14, and its net interest margin (NIM, a measure of the spread between interest earned on loans and paid on deposits) expanded to 3.78%. A planned leadership transition to incoming CEO Matthew K. Smith, effective July 1, has been described by management and analysts as evolutionary rather than disruptive. Several firms raised price targets in recent weeks, citing organic balance-sheet growth, fee income, and a smooth deal close. The stock has gained roughly 12% year to date, outpacing the broader market over that span.
TSBK Overview and Recent Performance
Timberland Bancorp, Inc. (TSBK) is the holding company for Timberland Bank, a community-oriented institution operating 23 branches across Washington State. Its lending focuses on real-estate-secured loans, including residential, multi-family, construction, and commercial real estate, alongside commercial business and Small Business Administration (SBA) lending.
Recent market activity reflects steady execution rather than large-scale dealmaking. In its most recent fiscal quarter, Timberland reported net income of $7.72 million and diluted EPS of $0.98, with a NIM of 3.85%, and it announced a 3% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.30 per share. Total assets have grown to more than $2 billion, and the company maintains strong capital ratios well above regulatory minimums. Over the trailing 12 months, TSBK shares have risen roughly 37%, aided by a valuation that remains below the industry average. Analysts initiating coverage have cited consistent earnings and solid asset quality while noting rising credit costs and geographic concentration in Washington as key watch items.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron operates hundreds of AI-powered trading bots that scan and trade thousands of tickers across diverse strategies, timeframes, and risk profiles. Because not every bot suits every market backdrop, Tickeron curates only its strongest performers into the Trending AI Robots section, where traders can compare bots by trading style, performance statistics, and the specific tickers they trade. These AI-driven systems analyze signals such as trend patterns, momentum, and volatility to help identify setups across names like FMBH and TSBK. Exploring the Trending AI Robots page can help investors see which automated strategies are currently aligned with prevailing market conditions.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The most visible contrast is scale and strategy. FMBH is a multi-state franchise actively growing through acquisitions, a model that adds revenue and geographic diversification but also introduces integration risk, goodwill and intangible balances, and purchase-accounting complexity. TSBK is smaller and more concentrated, relying on organic loan and deposit growth within a single state's economy.
Growth drivers differ accordingly. FMBH's outlook is tied to Two Rivers integration, cost synergies, loan repricing, and a diversified fee stream from insurance and wealth management. TSBK's outlook hinges on net interest margin stability, disciplined credit, and steady community lending, with less reliance on non-interest income.
On valuation, TSBK has traded below industry averages on a price-to-earnings basis, while FMBH carries a modest premium relative to the broader banking group but a discount to many peers. Risk profiles also diverge: FMBH faces execution and agricultural-credit normalization risk, while TSBK faces geographic concentration and a modest uptick in non-performing assets. From a sentiment standpoint, both have seen favorable analyst commentary, though FMBH has attracted more visible price-target raises in recent weeks.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward FMBH in the current environment, given its stronger relative earnings momentum, expanding net interest margin, diversified revenue base, and a steady stream of analyst price-target increases. The Two Rivers acquisition adds catalysts and scale that a trend-following system may interpret favorably. TSBK, however, presents a more consistent and conservatively capitalized profile with an attractive valuation, which could appeal to stability-oriented signals. In probabilistic terms, FMBH appears to hold the edge on momentum and catalyst density, while TSBK offers steadier, lower-leverage positioning; the preferred name ultimately depends on whether the AI prioritizes trend strength or balance-sheet stability.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FMBH is a Buy and TSBK is a StrongBuy.
FMBH's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FMBH turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where FMBH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where FMBH's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 22 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on FMBH as a result. In 55 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
FMBH moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.07% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FMBH advanced for three days, in 161 of 276 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The 10-day moving average for FMBH crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FMBH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
FMBH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for FMBH entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. FMBH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 98 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.222) is normal, around the industry mean (1.268). P/E Ratio (12.530) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.372). FMBH's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (43.000) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.330) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
TSBK's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TSBK turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where TSBK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TSBK as a result. In 51 of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
TSBK moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.20% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TSBK advanced for three days, in 182 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for TSBK crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 5 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 33%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TSBK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
TSBK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for TSBK entered a downward trend on October 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TSBK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 72 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.336) is normal, around the industry mean (1.268). P/E Ratio (11.706) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.372). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.560) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.026) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.405) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
FMBH | TSBK | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 76 | 85 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 98 Overvalued | 72 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 54 | 19 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 23 | 46 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 20 | 18 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TSBK's Valuation (72) in the Savings Banks industry is in the same range as FMBH (98) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that TSBK’s stock grew similarly to FMBH’s over the last 12 months.
TSBK's Profit vs Risk Rating (19) in the Savings Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FMBH (54) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that TSBK’s stock grew somewhat faster than FMBH’s over the last 12 months.
FMBH's SMR Rating (23) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as TSBK (46) in the Savings Banks industry. This means that FMBH’s stock grew similarly to TSBK’s over the last 12 months.
TSBK's Price Growth Rating (42) in the Savings Banks industry is in the same range as FMBH (44) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that TSBK’s stock grew similarly to FMBH’s over the last 12 months.
TSBK's P/E Growth Rating (18) in the Savings Banks industry is in the same range as FMBH (20) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that TSBK’s stock grew similarly to FMBH’s over the last 12 months.
| FMBH | TSBK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 47% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 58% | 7 days ago 58% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 64% | 9 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 44% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FMBH’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while TSBK’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- FMBH’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TSBK’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FMBH’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TSBK’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FMBH’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TSBK’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
FMBH (@Regional Banks) experienced а +1.11% price change this week, while TSBK (@Regional Banks) price change was +1.31% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +2.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.03%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.99%.
Reported Earning Dates
FMBH is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
TSBK is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+2.63% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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FMBH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FMBH has been closely correlated with BY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FMBH jumps, then BY could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FMBH | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FMBH | 100% | +2.76% | ||
| BY - FMBH | 86% Closely correlated | +1.60% | ||
| IBCP - FMBH | 86% Closely correlated | +2.70% | ||
| UVSP - FMBH | 85% Closely correlated | +1.32% | ||
| CCNE - FMBH | 85% Closely correlated | +2.03% | ||
| FBIZ - FMBH | 84% Closely correlated | +2.26% | ||
More | ||||
TSBK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TSBK has been closely correlated with FBIZ. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TSBK jumps, then FBIZ could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TSBK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSBK | 100% | +2.96% | ||
| FBIZ - TSBK | 76% Closely correlated | +2.26% | ||
| THFF - TSBK | 74% Closely correlated | +2.13% | ||
| CTBI - TSBK | 73% Closely correlated | +4.04% | ||
| IBCP - TSBK | 73% Closely correlated | +2.70% | ||
| FMBH - TSBK | 73% Closely correlated | +2.76% | ||
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