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KEY vs WTFC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? KeyCorp (KEY) vs. Wintrust Financial (WTFC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- KEY is a larger, diversified super-regional bank, while WTFC is a faster-growing, Chicago-centered community banking and specialty finance franchise.
- Both companies posted strong recent quarters, with KEY delivering a 24% year-over-year jump in earnings per share and WTFC recording its seventh consecutive quarter of record net income.
- WTFC carries a notably higher net interest margin (NIM) near 3.5%, versus roughly 2.95% for KEY, reflecting different balance-sheet and business-mix profiles.
- KEY offers a materially higher dividend yield (near 4%) than WTFC (about 1.5%), though WTFC's payout is smaller and growing faster.
- Both stocks face the same macro backdrop, including a recent Federal Reserve rate increase, but their interest-rate sensitivity and revenue diversification differ meaningfully.
Introduction
Regional banks are a distinct pocket of the financial sector, offering exposure to commercial lending, deposit franchises, and fee-based businesses without the scale or complexity of the largest money-center institutions. This stock comparison examines KEY (KeyCorp) and WTFC (Wintrust Financial), two well-established names with contrasting footprints and growth profiles. Investors weighing relative performance, dividend income, and interest-rate positioning may find the contrast instructive. Both companies reported results recently, providing a timely basis for evaluating market positioning. The comparison is also relevant to those using quantitative or AI-driven tools to screen for trend consistency and momentum across the banking sector.
KEY Overview and Recent Performance
KeyCorp, headquartered in Cleveland, operates through KeyBank across roughly 15 states, with meaningful presence in the Midwest, Northeast, and Pacific Northwest. The company runs two primary segments, Consumer Banking and Commercial Banking, and has been shifting its balance sheet toward higher-yielding commercial and industrial (C&I) lending while allowing lower-yielding consumer loans to run off.
In its most recent quarter, KEY reported net income of $537 million, or $0.51 per diluted share, up about 24% year over year and above consensus estimates. Total revenue rose to a record $2.04 billion, helped by net interest income (NII) growth of roughly 9.6% and a net interest margin (NIM) of 2.95%, up 20 basis points from the prior year. Fee income also strengthened, with investment banking and debt placement fees reaching $214 million. Management has emphasized a goal of sustaining a return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) of 15% or more by year-end 2027. Credit quality improved, with net charge-offs (NCOs) declining, though the bank's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio, a key measure of a bank's loss-absorbing capital, has declined from year-ago levels.
WTFC Overview and Recent Performance
Wintrust Financial, based in Rosemont, Illinois, operates community banks concentrated in the Chicago area, southern Wisconsin, and western Michigan, alongside specialty finance and wealth management businesses. The company has built a reputation for steady deposit growth and disciplined balance-sheet management.
In its most recent quarter, WTFC posted its seventh consecutive quarter of record net income at $239 million, or $3.37 per diluted share, with revenue of about $758 million, up 8.7% year over year. Net interest income reached a record $621.6 million, supported by loan and deposit growth of roughly 8% on an annualized basis. Wintrust's NIM has held in a tight band near 3.5% for eleven consecutive quarters, reflecting effective hedging and a relatively neutral interest-rate posture. Deposit market share gains in Illinois and expansion into Wisconsin and western Michigan remain core growth drivers. The company's CET1 capital ratio stood near 10.5%, and its efficiency ratio improved, underscoring operating leverage.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ most sharply in scale, business mix, and profitability profile. KEY is roughly twice Wintrust's market capitalization and operates a larger, more geographically diversified franchise with a heavier tilt toward capital markets and investment banking, which boosts fee income but can make results more sensitive to deal activity. WTFC is more concentrated in community banking and specialty finance, with NII representing a larger share of revenue and a structurally higher NIM.
On shareholder returns, KEY offers a higher current yield, appealing to income-oriented investors, while WTFC combines a lower payout ratio with faster dividend growth, favoring those prioritizing long-term compounding. Risk profiles also diverge: KEY has seen its CET1 ratio ease year over year, whereas Wintrust has maintained a stable margin through hedging. Both stocks remain exposed to the same interest-rate environment, including a recent Federal Reserve rate hike, though Wintrust's neutral hedging posture may reduce earnings volatility across rate scenarios relative to KeyCorp's more repricing-sensitive balance sheet.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, margin stability, and relative momentum, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward WTFC in the current environment. Wintrust's record-setting earnings streak, unusually stable net interest margin, and sustained deposit market-share gains reflect a steadier fundamental trend, while its higher recent price momentum and stronger multi-year total returns reinforce that positioning. That said, KEY presents a competing case through its valuation, higher dividend yield, and improving fee-based businesses. The AI's preference is best understood as a probabilistic tilt rather than a definitive forecast, with each name offering distinct trade-offs depending on an investor's timeframe and objectives.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KEY is a StrongBuy and WTFC is a Buy.
KEY in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026
The 10-day moving average for KEY crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on KEY as a result. In 58 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for KEY just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where KEY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
KEY moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.61% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KEY advanced for three days, in 177 of 293 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for KEY moved out of overbought territory on October 30, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 35 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 35 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 69%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for KEY moved below the 200-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KEY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
KEY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for KEY entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. KEY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.303) is normal, around the industry mean (1.258). P/E Ratio (12.208) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.468). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.332) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.039) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.996) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. KEY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
WTFC in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026
The 10-day moving average for WTFC crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on WTFC as a result. In 56 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WTFC just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where WTFC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
WTFC moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +0.95% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WTFC advanced for three days, in 187 of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for WTFC moved out of overbought territory on October 30, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 22 of the 39 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 56%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for WTFC moved below the 200-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WTFC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
WTFC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for WTFC entered a downward trend on October 16, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. WTFC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 64 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.448) is normal, around the industry mean (1.258). P/E Ratio (12.074) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.468). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.150) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.014) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.527) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
KEY | WTFC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 50 Fair valued | 64 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 81 | 22 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 7 | 9 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 86 | 42 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KEY's Valuation (50) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as WTFC (64) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to WTFC’s over the last 12 months.
WTFC's Profit vs Risk Rating (22) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (81) in the Major Banks industry. This means that WTFC’s stock grew somewhat faster than KEY’s over the last 12 months.
KEY's SMR Rating (7) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as WTFC (9) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to WTFC’s over the last 12 months.
KEY's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as WTFC (47) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to WTFC’s over the last 12 months.
WTFC's P/E Growth Rating (42) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (86) in the Major Banks industry. This means that WTFC’s stock grew somewhat faster than KEY’s over the last 12 months.
| KEY | WTFC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 56% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 57% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 67% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 59% | 4 days ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 60% | 8 days ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 70% | 6 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 74% | 4 days ago 57% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 71% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KEY’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while WTFC’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- KEY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- WTFC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KEY’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WTFC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KEY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
- WTFC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
KEY (@Regional Banks) experienced а +0.19% price change this week, while WTFC (@Regional Banks) price change was +1.07% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was -0.05%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.76%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.39%.
Reported Earning Dates
KEY is expected to report earnings on Jan 20, 2027.
WTFC is expected to report earnings on Jan 20, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (-0.05% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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KEY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KEY has been closely correlated with ZION. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KEY jumps, then ZION could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To KEY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KEY | 100% | -1.72% | ||
| ZION - KEY | 85% Closely correlated | -1.30% | ||
| WTFC - KEY | 81% Closely correlated | -1.14% | ||
| ONB - KEY | 81% Closely correlated | -0.55% | ||
| FULT - KEY | 81% Closely correlated | -0.89% | ||
| HWC - KEY | 80% Closely correlated | -0.85% | ||
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WTFC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WTFC has been closely correlated with FNB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if WTFC jumps, then FNB could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To WTFC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTFC | 100% | -1.14% | ||
| FNB - WTFC | 88% Closely correlated | -1.42% | ||
| ZION - WTFC | 88% Closely correlated | -1.30% | ||
| ONB - WTFC | 86% Closely correlated | -0.55% | ||
| ASB - WTFC | 86% Closely correlated | -0.75% | ||
| HWC - WTFC | 85% Closely correlated | -0.85% | ||
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